Temple Game Thread

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I’ve seen 30 years of centers that block shots and can’t make a layup. I’m ok with giving up some defense for an elite scorer. Elite defense never won us anything in the tournament. At lest not recently.
 
Aren't we like top 30 in defense? In the country? Defense doesn't seem to be an issue. You can win with a defense in the top 30.
 
cincyguy13 said:
Aren't we like top 30 in defense? In the country? Defense doesn't seem to be an issue. You can win with a defense in the top 30.
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I believe we were 28 in Kenpom defense before then Temple game. Now we are 46 in defense and 61 in offense.
 
skyblade said:
I believe we were 28 in Kenpom defense before then Temple game. Now we are 46 in defense and 61 in offense.
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Thats still pretty good. It's been proven that offense is more important in the tournament as long as you have a decent defense. Not sure why some people seem to be worried about the defense. We should want more Elite scorers out there.
 
cincyguy13 said:
Thats still pretty good. It's been proven that offense is more important in the tournament as long as you have a decent defense. Not sure why some people seem to be worried about the defense. We should want more Elite scorers out there.
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It hasn't been proven. In fact I believe I and others have shown that most tournament winning teams are usually excellent (top 10) at both O and D, but if you're only going to be excellent at one, the ones who are better at D are generally more successful.

I want elite scorers out there, but you also have to look at situations and matchups. Elite defenders provide plenty of positives as well. With Diarra's improvement, there is even more reason to sit Vogt against certain matchups.
 
skyblade said:
It hasn't been proven. In fact I believe I and others have shown that most tournament winning teams are usually excellent (top 10) at both O and D, but if you're only going to be excellent at one, the ones who are better at D are generally more successful.

I want elite scorers out there, but you also have to look at situations and matchups. Elite defenders provide plenty of positives as well. With Diarra's improvement, there is even more reason to sit Vogt against certain matchups.
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Yes it has. The only elite defense that has won was Virginia and they also lost to a 16 seed the year before. It’s usually elite offenses that succeed. It’s not the 90s. Offense wins.
 
skyblade said:
It hasn't been proven. In fact I believe I and others have shown that most tournament winning teams are usually excellent (top 10) at both O and D, but if you're only going to be excellent at one, the ones who are better at D are generally more successful.

I want elite scorers out there, but you also have to look at situations and matchups. Elite defenders provide plenty of positives as well. With Diarra's improvement, there is even more reason to sit Vogt against certain matchups.
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Do a quick google search. Elite offense is far more important if you want to win in March.
 
"The average Final Four team’s offense ranks around No. 39 in the country, and their defense near No. 55. If we focus on national champions, those numbers get even better, at approximately No. 21 for offenses and No. 42 for defenses." From one of the articles.

You can win either way, I'm just saying, if we can have a top 50 defense while having an elite scorer on the court, we should probably go with that option.
 
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...re-important-than-defense-in-ncaa-tournament/

"Defense holds a slight edge over offense in four of the first five rounds. Only Sweet 16 advancers have a better ranking in offense than defense. But the number that really jumps out here is the relative rankings of the champions. Tourney winners are much higher ranked offensively than defensively -- a gap of five positions".

So the only significant difference was in tournament winners (which is a tiny sample size). In every other round the difference was small enough that it was likely insignificant (with D being slightly better in four of those 5 rounds).
 
skyblade said:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...re-important-than-defense-in-ncaa-tournament/

"Defense holds a slight edge over offense in four of the first five rounds. Only Sweet 16 advancers have a better ranking in offense than defense. But the number that really jumps out here is the relative rankings of the champions. Tourney winners are much higher ranked offensively than defensively -- a gap of five positions".

So the only significant difference was in tournament winners (which is a tiny sample size). In every other round the difference was small enough that it was likely insignificant (with D being slightly better in four of those 5 rounds).
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literally the next sentence. "In fact, the gradually flattening curve for defense suggests that, while you need a solid defense to advance in the dance, defense can only take you so far. On the other hand, you have to have an elite offense to cut down the nets."

"The numbers show that better defensive teams defy seed expectations to a higher degree but better offensive teams win more hardware."

"I think there's a reasonable case to be made that offense trumps defense in the NCAA tourney, at least when it comes to crowning the champion. The numbers say that you need to play solid defense. But that will only take you so far. When it comes to the big prize, you'd better be proficient at scoring."
 
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I think defense is more consistent over the course of the regular season and can get you more wins, (Virgina and UC over the years), but in the tourney, every one can score. We've seen it the last 10 years. We had great defenses most of those years and went to one sweet 16. If you guys want to continue that trend, fine, I'd like something more.
 
cincyguy13 said:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...ege-basketball-data-show-offense-matters-more

http://www.thesportsfanjournal.com/...tter-predictor-of-college-basketball-success/

https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...re-important-than-defense-in-ncaa-tournament/

There are 3 articles after 5 minutes of searching. with data
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The first article is using some strange numbers. Villanova was ranked 69th in defense in 2018? Kansas was 148th? Where is the author getting that?

The second article only looks at champions, an even smaller sample. Worse still, it doesn't even provide any kind of correlation or average. The author just picks arbitrary cutoffs that fit his view.

The third article is the most rigorous, and actually goes against your point. It says teams with better defensive efficiency have more overall success, even adjusted for seeding. Offensive teams are more likely to win the championship, which could very well be an artifact caused by small sample size (only 11 games). But that was written back in 2013. Here's the Kenpom ratings of champs in the last decade:

Offense: 1,19,2,7,39,3,3,9,1,2 (Average 8.6)
Defense: 5,15,7,1,10,11,5,11,11,5 (Average 8.1)

Even champions have had better defenses than offenses, though UConn is a bit of an outlier. Sure there are lots of top offenses in the final four, but there are also many top offenses that have faltered early (2017 OK St, 2016 MI St, 2014 Creighton, 2012 Missouri).

Nothing presented here can be considered proof of anything. The one article that had a rigorous approach found very little correlation between offense or defense and March wins, though defense actually outperformed.
 
justinhub2003 said:
Scott is a PF with the #1 rebounding percentage in conference and the 2nd highest steal rate. He's also 16th in the league in Assist rate.

He is a glue Guy if I ever say one.

Sure he makes mistakes. But is playing at a much faster pace.

And we're undefeated when he scores double figures.

I just have no idea why one guy always seems to become the Damn it doll on the team.

He's literally adjusting to a new System like every one else.

I get frustrated with him as well but his effort is off the charts. His hustle is relenting.

He guarded JP Moreman most of the night, JP finished with 6 points in 34 minutes with an offensive rating of 90

He guarded one of the best scorers in our league against ECU and held him to 13 points on 13 shots.

Kahwai Leonard Gets beat on defense. Gary Clark got beat on defense. IT HAPPENS. But the overall numbers says he is a good defender.
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He gets heat because a lot is expected out of him. He is a 5th year senior and I don't think this should be that big of an adjustment considering he isn't the focal point of offense. I get it for Cumberland. That said, I really don't care about rebounding percentage, if that's a stat you want to hang your hat on so be it. A lot of stats just get thrown around and you can argue any stat out there or provide a counter-stat.

I've been just as hard on KW this year though he has been a little more consistent. Still frustrating in a lot of ways that you don't expect for a veteran. They had high expecations coming in. Vogt, Diarra, and others did not.

Either way, my sole point was you can't just look at numbers to make an argument. Trevon played okay last night, the fact that he had a lot of easy buckets off of great passes doesn't really change that. I really like Trevon as a person so I really, really want him to succeed. In fact, even if he has a down year this year I would still consider him a huge success for the way he has represented the University. But we are talking basketball here.
 
skyblade said:
Everything you said of Scott could also be said of Vogt. Brannen's system is designed to get the bigs open looks at the rim, Scott/Vogt still have to be at the right place and finish.

Almost everyones defense was bad last night (even Diarra made mistakes overhelping and he's usually our best defender). Scott is our top rated defender in conference play for a reason though. He had one bad game.

Vogt is very bad on defense every night. His guy makes "tough" shots almost every game because Vogt doesn't contest jump shots. And a 7'1" guy shouldn't need help on the block (though we do typically send some help). Not to mention Vogt is the worst help defender on the team. Vogt brings a lot on offense and it's worth keeping him in for that most of the time, but his defense has been bad all season.

I like the substitution pattern with Scott, Diarra and Vogt right now (I wouldn't give Sorolla minutes though). Diarra brings energy when he's in for Scott and a completely different look when in for Vogt.

Diarra also indirectly creates a lot of TO's because of his size and movement and makes inbounding the ball very difficult for the other team. We can also use some weird looks on defense Diarra play at the top of the zone and guarding their 5'10" guy for a bit (though it didn't work out too well, mostly because Diarra overhelped off of him).

Diarra also has improved offensively quite a bit and if he can knock down more threes it will make him a bigger offensive threat. Diarra leads the team in ORTG in conference play, mostly because of small sample size, but also because he has cut down on TO's in conference play, averages more assists per 40 than Vogt and has worked out a pretty good two man game with Jarron at times.
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Of course Diarra would have more assists per 40 (even though the per 40 is dumb). Vogt is shooting at a ridiculously high clip, he rarely should be passing the ball. I mean he likely will be first team all conference, and for a damn good reason. Diarra on the on the other hand is not a go to guy. His sole function is to give it to the scorers. Then to say Vogt is basically a function of the system and that Scott would be doing the same is just dumb, but par for the course.

Diarra has been improving and hope it continues.

Again, I disagree that Vogts interior defense is bad. It wasn't good last night but neither was Scott's or Diarra's. And the on ball defense from the guards was bad as well. And even if you are 7' you still need help on the block from time to time. Any good post player will take someone one on one on the block. It's just too easy. It's why Vogt gets doubled just about every time he gets it on the block.
 
sedziobs said:
Offense: 1,19,2,7,39,3,3,9,1,2 (Average 8.6)
Defense: 5,15,7,1,10,11,5,11,11,5 (Average 8.1)

Even champions have had better defenses than offenses, though UConn is a bit of an outlier. Sure there are lots of top offenses in the final four, but there are also many top offenses that have faltered early (2017 OK St, 2016 MI St, 2014 Creighton, 2012 Missouri).
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If I saw these numbers I'd be giving the advantage to the offense. One outlier really throws the offensive average off. drop the worst from offense and defense and offensive average goes down to 5.2 with defense at 7.33.

top 3 offense won 6 of 10 years. only 1 top 3 defense won in 10 years. 4 top 5 defenses won in 10 years.


But really the main takeaway is you better play both.


Outside of the uconn year, haven't almost all champions been top 30 in both for a long time? I swear I remember hearing that stat years ago.
 
cincrulz11 said:
If I saw these numbers I'd be giving the advantage to the offense. One outlier really throws the offensive average off. drop the worst from offense and defense and offensive average goes down to 5.2 with defense at 7.33.

top 3 offense won 6 of 10 years. only 1 top 3 defense won in 10 years. 4 top 5 defenses won in 10 years.


But really the main takeaway is you better play both.


Outside of the uconn year, haven't almost all champions been top 30 in both for a long time? I swear I remember hearing that stat years ago.
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Yep, you have to do both. My overall point was defense does not win championships. They both do. There is no point in trying to get an elite defense if you are giving up offense to do it. You try to have a balance. We’ve seen elite defenses the last 10 years and have nothing to show for it in the tourney.
 

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