Scouting UCF
Kenpom: #75
Offense Rank: #278
Defense Rank: #4
Tempo Rank: #306
Best Wins: Nebraska, @Alabama, Temple
Worst Losses: #127 UCONN, #77 St Johns and #40 Missouri
Average PPG: 64.6 (334th)
Defensive PPG: 59.1 (3rd)
Analysis:
Defense:
I'll be honest, I never would have guessed that UCF would be 12-5 after losing BJ Taylor after just 1 game and sharpshooter Aubrey Dawkins before the season even started. So much credit is due to Johnny Dawkins and his staff for developing a winning team despite lacking any sort of offensive punch. The Knights live on defensive effort and Tacko Fall is a huge reason behind it working so well for them. Tacko Fall allows UCF to play him in a one man zone while the rest of his teammates guard way up on the perimeter to protect the 3 point shot. They strive on forcing contested jumpers or funneling your drivers right into the long arms of Tacko Fall.
A lot of noise is made about Tacko's presence on the defensive end but it would be very short sighted to look past what AJ Davis brings to the table for them defensively. Synergy ranks him as an "Excellent" defender, allowing just .68 points per possession against him. He is a 6'9 SR forward who moves well and can guard multiple positions. He ranks #5 in the nation in defensive win shares. Him getting in some early foul trouble would really help UC find its way offensively.
Also of note; last year UCF ranked #18 in defense and #2 in effective FG% defense. However this year, its doing very much the same thing it did last year in forcing bad shots and causing a lot of misses but they are also getting out in the passing lanes, playing aggressive and forcing TO's. They went from #341 in forcing TO's all the way to #99. Thats a huge leap and also explains why they've made huge strides in defensive efficiency.
Offense
If elite is the word I'd use to describe UCF's defense, then hot garbage would be how I'd describe its offense. Its just bad. They shoot a dreadful 30.4% from 3 and that number alone shows how much they miss not having Dawkins and Taylor around. Tacko Fall leads this team in scoring with 12 points a game, which mostly come around the rim (He is shooting 77% overall, which is good for #2 in the nation). Fall is shooting just 48% from the free throw line, so to me, I'm giving him nothing easy around the rim and a hard foul that takes him off balance maybe the best way to go if you get beat on positioning. AJ Davis is the second leading scorer and also dishes out nearly 3 assists a game.
Honestly its to talk about them offensively because they mostly just want to survive on that end of the floor. They want to hold you to 50 so they can do their best to throw in 51. Its ugly basketball. So ugly that UCF's Offense is worse than any team in the top 132 of the nation.
The X Factor
Chad Brendel put it best when he said that BJ Taylor has been Day to Day for going on a month now. Its very likely he will play tomorrow and its just so hard to predict what he gives them. Does he come out rusty and end up being a liability for them (hard to imagine at least offensively, Quadri Moore would look lik the Michael Jordan on that team) or does he give the Knights the offensive spark they have been looking for all season? IF he is on his game, Cane and Justin will have their hands full. UC will need to exploit his rust and try to frustrate him early.
Prediction: UC Wins 67- 54
Sorry guys, I know 90% won't read, but I just like to write about CBB and UC especially
