2023-24 roster

This years' team just didn't have the horses to compete with the big boys.

I think of some of the players who left now doing okay on other rosters, and I think if we had had some continuity, their development might have helped. But not so much to compete at Houston's level this season. And certainly not in the Big 12.

We need major upgrades. Recruiting and coaching. I'm not ready to fire Miller yet. Maybe if he has a more balanced roster he can get things cooking. But there was a lot of head scratching at his in-game decisions.

I see a team like Xavier that was always falling apart in the home stretch and how Sean Miller has whipped a team into shape that a lot of folks didn't think was very good.

sirthought said:

This years' team just didn't have the horses to compete with the big boys.

I think of some of the players who left now doing okay on other rosters, and I think if we had had some continuity, their development might have helped. But not so much to compete at Houston's level this season. And certainly not in the Big 12.

We need major upgrades. Recruiting and coaching. I'm not ready to fire Miller yet. Maybe if he has a more balanced roster he can get things cooking. But there was a lot of head scratching at his in-game decisions.

I see a team like Xavier that was always falling apart in the home stretch and how Sean Miller has whipped a team into shape that a lot of folks didn't think was very good.

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That's probably one of the best ways to simply summarize this season.

18-2 in Q3/Q4/D2 games.

3-10 in Q1/Q2 games.

Guys like MAW and Davenport have been formidable AAC players for the better part of their careers.

There's also been moments when they've looked blatantly overmatched against better talent/athletes.

Wes will have to make some tough decisions over the offseason.

Do we keep such guys around for one more year for culture/leadership purposes or do we recruit over them in the portal in an effort to make us more physically competitive next season?

Queens_NYC said:

Guys like MAW and Davenport have been formidable AAC players for the better part of their careers.

There's also been moments when they've looked blatantly overmatched against better talent/athletes.

Wes will have to make some tough decisions over the offseason.

Do we keep such guys around for one more year for culture/leadership purposes or do we recruit over them in the portal in an effort to make us more physically competitive next season?

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There is no magical one year cure of recruiting over guys. MAW is a solid player, who Wes knows and can trust. There's a very good chance Wes has him penciled in as a starter next year.

Recruiting over players isn't as easy as it sounds. Transfers aren't a sure thing, there are plenty of busts even among higher rated guys. Changing teams isn't easy and it also makes it harder for new guys to develop over the off-season.

If you "recruit over" MAW, I'd say odds are approximately 1/3rd that you get a better player, 1/3rd that you get a comparable guy and 1/3rd that you get a significant downgrade. That gamble is not worth it for a team that is already lacking in guard depth.

There will plenty of minutes to go around. Get the best transfers you can at either guard or forward/center. But keep MAW and Ody around, if (and it's a big if for MAW especially) they do get beat out as starters, they still provide huge value off the bench.

Davenport I could do without, he's already physically outmatched in the American. But if he wants to stick around as a 5-10 minute per game bench guy because he loves UC, more power to him.

Watched the post game presser and I feel much better. Very proud to have a coach like Miller. He was all in with the hand he was dealt and treated DeJulius with the utmost integrity which is what that kid deserved. We may not have gone as far as we would have liked, albeit with some improvement, but the program remains intact and on good footing. Some success in the NIT would be a very nice bow on the package of this season and I am hopeful for that. Also hope Sasser is better and the best for Houston in the tournament.

I'd say there are three B12 caliber players on this roster: Nolley, Lakhin, and Skillings (maybe Newman too if he comes back). Hopefully with James and Griffith coming in we'll have a full lineup, but it will still be a very young group and I don't expect all of them to start next year.

I like DDJ, but it's really hard to have a good offense when one of your highest usage players isn't efficient. And he really struggles against good competition. On the season his effective field goal percentage is a below average 49%, but against top 100 competition this season it was only 41%. He plays hard and is crafty, but he's always at a size and athleticism disadvantage.

The biggest question mark is probably power forward. Going into his 5th season, Ody still has no offensive skills outside of 10 feet and is not a rim protector. Davenport is overmatched inside. Our best option might be to play Nolley at the 4 and just accept that our wings will have to compensate for his rebounding and defense. That would free up the wings for Skillings/Griffith/Davenport/Newman. If Nolley plays the 3 there will be a big logjam at the 1-3 positions if everyone stays.

sedziobs said:

I'd say there are three B12 caliber players on this roster: Nolley, Lakhin, and Skillings (maybe Newman too if he comes back). Hopefully with James and Griffith coming in we'll have a full lineup, but it will still be a very young group and I don't expect all of them to start next year.

I like DDJ, but it's really hard to have a good offense when one of your highest usage players isn't efficient. And he really struggles against good competition. On the season his effective field goal percentage is a below average 49%, but against top 100 competition this season it was only 41%. He plays hard and is crafty, but he's always at a size and athleticism disadvantage.

The biggest question mark is probably power forward. Going into his 5th season, Ody still has no offensive skills outside of 10 feet and is not a rim protector. Davenport is overmatched inside. Our best option might be to play Nolley at the 4 and just accept that our wings will have to compensate for his rebounding and defense. That would free up the wings for Skillings/Griffith/Davenport/Newman. If Nolley plays the 3 there will be a big logjam at the 1-3 positions if everyone stays.

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I don't really expect Nolley to come back. Without NIL there's basically no way he'd be back, with NIL there's a chance. There's not much more he can do to improve his pro prospects by staying another year.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeffborzello/status/1631293666298822660
"Only about seven top-100 freshmen ranked outside the top 25 are making a noticeable impact each year. Essentially, if you’re not landing a five-star, the better bet for an immediate impact is almost always a transfer."

I'm not expecting a lot out of Jizzle or Griffith in year one, it could happen, but the odds are not in their favor.

I think we are better off without DDJ. He did great things here, but his lack of size and being primarily an iso jump shooter hurt us in many ways.

MAW is B12 caliper, he wouldn't be the top choice of PG, but he's easily good enough (and could still develop more in his final year). There are plenty of PG's with less athleticism who play on very good teams (Tyger Campbell comes to mind).

I expect next years starters to be initially penciled in as: MAW, Skillings, Newman, Ody and Lakhin. Wes will do his best to get transfers who upgrade our weakest positions (Center/PF and guard).

I expect we'll have 2/3 spots open, most likely to leave are Davenport (transfer), Hensley (transfer) and Nolley (plays professionally, either in the G-league or overseas).

There is no magic cure for recruiting in one off season. Only a ton of luck.

I think if Wes finds an upgrade opportunity he has to take it. A transfer isn't going to necessarily gel right away, but he might as well be going for developing the type of athlete he thinks best fits the profile to make the concepts work.

I'm done with Davenport. He had his moments, but overall he's total drain on the program and represents our shortcomings in the time he's been here. Not entirely his fault, as a more complete team helps everyone perform. But how long can you keep allowing bad shot after bad shot, even if some sometimes fall? His defense can't stand up to the schedule we face.

Vik may transfer somewhere he doesn't have to take such a load. I'll be pleased if he stays.

MAW has always been fine with me. His issues are based on ability, but not on effort or mental mistakes. He knows Wes' system at this point and that can be valuable. But I wouldn't be surprised if he moves on.

Nolley should be interesting. He's good enough to play professionally. But so are plenty of others across D1, and I wonder how long he'd last on a roster. I bet he wonders too. He might decide to stay to get as much education as he can while it's free.

I like the two freshmen. The rest I'm not seeing a lot of upside. Right now.

I have no idea who is going to stay. I've talked before about how low-level pro ball is not a whole lot better than a free year in college. The money isn't enough to build wealth and the conditions aren't great. Nolley might choose that path but it's not a given.

Obviously players can be good if they aren't big or athletic, but they need to be very skilled. Tyger Campbell is very skilled. MAW is good in some areas, but he's very limited overall so he's basically a role player. He's just an ok shooter and has no rebounding ability, so he should be a PG. I'm fine with him starting at PG ahead of a talented freshman and athletic Juco. It's a problem when he's playing 30 minutes on the wing.

I agree on Davenport, but he loves the Bearcats and if he stays in a mostly cheerleader role, I'm fine with it.

I think there's an argument to be made that Nolley should move on as well. Nolley played great at times, but Davenport and Nolley are not the guys I want building a culture. Nolley took more plays off this year than anyone else on the team, plays with a lackadaisical attitude at times and leads the team in careless mistakes.

Wes started from almost nothing and has to balance the good enough for now, with improving for the future. I don't want to clear out the team, gamble it all on transfers and end up screwed for the long-term future. A guy he wants back next year to start (MAW, Ody), might be a guy who would barely get on the floor on our team in 3 years if everything goes to plan.

Nolley checks the great player box, MAW and Ody check the lead by example culture building box, Davenport checks the cheerleading culture building box. If Hensley couldn't break through this year, it's hard to believe he ever will. Probably gone, though if Wes keeps him around one more year, I'm willing to trust Wes.

sedziobs said:

I have no idea who is going to stay. I've talked before about how low-level pro ball is not a whole lot better than a free year in college. The money isn't enough to build wealth and the conditions aren't great. Nolley might choose that path but it's not a given.

Obviously players can be good if they aren't big or athletic, but they need to be very skilled. Tyger Campbell is very skilled. MAW is good in some areas, but he's very limited overall so he's basically a role player. He's just an ok shooter and has no rebounding ability, so he should be a PG. I'm fine with him starting at PG ahead of a talented freshman and athletic Juco. It's a problem when he's playing 30 minutes on the wing.

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I agree with MAW at PG and hopefully closer to 25 minutes next year. But we don't have a ton of depth, so I definitely don't want him gone. Odds are against Jizzle being a major contributor, Thomas may take a bit to find his footing coming in as a JUCO guys (hopefully he does quickly) and Skillings is our only other guard. We can probably add another guard and still have plenty of minutes to go around.

skyblade said:

I agree with MAW at PG and hopefully closer to 25 minutes next year. But we don't have a ton of depth, so I definitely don't want him gone. Odds are against Jizzle being a major contributor, Thomas may take a bit to find his footing coming in as a JUCO guys (hopefully he does quickly) and Skillings is our only other guard. We can probably add another guard and still have plenty of minutes to go around.

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Right, I never want to push anyone out. I think Wes should be honest about a player's role, and they can choose to leave. I like MAW as a starting PG with his experience. When I say "B12 caliber" I mean guys who aren't just role players. Ideally you have 5 players you can count on to produce, then role players to fill in. With multiple role players playing 30 minutes, you really need an All-American quality player to carry the team, which we don't have.

I'll take Hensley upside over Maw and JD leadership going into next year. If we bring everyone back and only lose Hensley that would be a disaster. We need upgrades @ PG, SG, and C. MAW and JD aren't even role players in Big12. We need bona-fide 3 starters that would make the incoming guys the new role players. My ideal scenario.

PG-portal
SG-portal
Sf-nolley
Pf-vik
C-portal

Bench
Skillings
Reed
Sage
Griffin
James
Day day
Newman
Ody

We absolutely need to swing for 3 starters out of portal.

TheRealMick said:

I'll take Hensley upside over Maw and JD leadership going into next year. If we bring everyone back and only lose Hensley that would be a disaster. We need upgrades @ PG, SG, and C. MAW and JD aren't even role players in Big12. We need bona-fide 3 starters that would make the incoming guys the new role players. My ideal scenario.

PG-portal
SG-portal
Sf-nolley
Pf-vik
C-portal

Bench
Skillings
Reed
Sage
Griffin
James
Day day
Newman
Ody

We absolutely need to swing for 3 starters out of portal.

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For once, we're on the same page about the roster.

Our ceiling next year with MAW and JD both in the squad is 16-16 with a 6-12 conference record.

I understand the rationale of sticking with "the devil you know", and I'll trust the staff's judgment on which one they decide to keep, if either, but I'll be very pessimistic if both stay.

I'd rather take a chance on the unknowns of the portal and add as much raw talent/athleticism/length as possible.

Give the staff a chance to develop more high-ceiling players.

The portal isn't a gold mine. There will be 100 teams competing for the few B12 caliber starters. If we can land an upgrade, I'm all for it regardless of who gets pushed out. Landing three impact starters would be a huge challenge. I'd focus on a power forward with multiple years left before the guard spots. Right now we're either playing someone with no interior skills (Davenport, Nolley) or someone with no perimeter skills (Ody). And all three of those guys will be gone after next year. At guard we at least have talent to develop.

Maybe this should be a new thread since we're getting into a new team instead of this last game.

I'm starting to wonder if Wes is going to have a tougher job going into the Big 12 than Cronin did going into the Big East. Cronin had nothing, but we've gotten to a point where the players have more ability to go where they want, and the rich tend to get richer with talent.

It took five years for Cronin to really start to seriously compete, but UC had been winning up to the time he came on board.

UC has been not too convincing since Cronin left, so five years for Wes could be painful. I know it's not going to turn around overnight.

sirthought said:

Maybe this should be a new thread since we're getting into a new team instead of this last game.

I'm starting to wonder if Wes is going to have a tougher job going into the Big 12 than Cronin did going into the Big East. Cronin had nothing, but we've gotten to a point where the players have more ability to go where they want, and the rich tend to get richer with talent.

It took five years for Cronin to really start to seriously compete, but UC had been winning up to the time he came on board.

UC has been not too convincing since Cronin left, so five years for Wes could be painful. I know it's not going to turn around overnight.

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Mick was one of best if not best recruiter in country. People don't understand the best players from past few decades Mick recruited one way or another.

sedziobs said:

The portal isn't a gold mine. There will be 100 teams competing for the few B12 caliber starters. If we can land an upgrade, I'm all for it regardless of who gets pushed out. Landing three impact starters would be a huge challenge. I'd focus on a power forward with multiple years left before the guard spots. Right now we're either playing someone with no interior skills (Davenport, Nolley) or someone with no perimeter skills (Ody). And all three of those guys will be gone after next year. At guard we at least have talent to develop.

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As of right now we have 3(vik,sage&skillings) big 12 caliber players on team. We have 3 coming in. At minimum we need 3 out of portal.

We appear to be making early contact with some shooting guards in the portal.

6'4 Jayden Taylor from Butler (12.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg)

6'4 Paxson Wojcik from Brown (14.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg)

6'2 Nate Calmese from Lamar (17.6 ppg)

Queens_NYC said:

We appear to be making early contact with some shooting guards in the portal.

6'4 Jayden Taylor from Butler (12.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg)

6'4 Paxson Wojcik from Brown (14.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg)

6'2 Nate Calmese from Lamar (17.6 ppg)

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Interesting. Only one of these guys is a senior (Wojcik). The others have 2 or 3 years left.

Taylor does not have good offensive numbers in two years at Butler, but he has a decent steal rate and doesn't foul much. EvanMiya says he's Butler's best defender, but overall he's worse than our top 7.

Wojcik is a balanced scorer, efficient inside and out. He also has good assist, foul, and defensive rebounding rates, so a good all around player. He put up 10 pts, 13 reb against Michigan St and made 4 threes against Northwestern. Again, EvanMiya says he's worse than our top 7.

Calmese showed the ability to score at all three levels in his freshman season. He played for an awful team in an awful league though. Against TCU he was held to 2 points on 1 for 10 shooting. EvanMiya says he's terrible, but I think team quality is too much of a factor there.

Hard to get too excited about any of these guys. I could see Wojcik as a one year rental on the wing. It's extremely early, but interesting to see that we're reaching out to older and younger guards.

sedziobs said:

The portal isn't a gold mine. There will be 100 teams competing for the few B12 caliber starters. If we can land an upgrade, I'm all for it regardless of who gets pushed out. Landing three impact starters would be a huge challenge. I'd focus on a power forward with multiple years left before the guard spots. Right now we're either playing someone with no interior skills (Davenport, Nolley) or someone with no perimeter skills (Ody). And all three of those guys will be gone after next year. At guard we at least have talent to develop.

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Completely agree, we aren't adding 3 top 100 guys, which is at minimum what we need to upgrade over MAW and Ody. If MAW transfers, I'd be surprised if he's rated much below 100. There's too much competition and many of those teams are much more appealing landing spots than us. Even if we could somehow pull off adding 3 top 100 guys, the transfer portal isn't a sure thing. My own odds are around 33% that a top 100 transfer will be a bust (and get worse as you get outside the top 100).

The possibility of Lakhin moving to PF has been brought up in the past by Wes. C/PF (preferably with multiple years) would be my top target. SG would be the second one. I feel pretty comfortable with PG (MAW, Day Day and Jizzle), Lakhin, Ody as starter/backup at at PF/C and Newman starting at SF. But we need one more big man to start alongside Lakhin.