The NCAA put out a memo yesterday stating that they are going to be much more strict about two-time undergraduate transfers. Waivers will no longer be granted for common reasons like coaching changes, lack of playing time, or switching majors. It's being limited to things like documented mental health or discrimination issues.
This muddies the situation a bit for Hensley, who would have to sit out a year if he decides to leave. Everyone else on our roster has either not transferred yet or should be a graduate. But in general these rules should shrink the size and quality of the portal some, at least for younger players.
Agreed. I can understand Sage not playing so he could redshirt. But especially when Lakhin was injured and our NCAA chances were nil, Hensley and Reed should have been playing if Wes had any confidence in them at all. It's hard to see them making the leap from 0 minutes to 15.
If we're looking at Sage and Hensley taking roster spots as projects next year, then we don't have any dependable front court depth. I think we need a veteran guard, whether that's MAW or a transfer. So we are left needing to replace Davenport with a big if everyone else stays. It will be interesting to see who enters the portal over the next couple weeks.
Well that's exactly the problem, if these guys aren't developing enough in practice to see the floor in games, we shouldn't be counting on them to magically develop over the offseason to the point where they are giving us 15 minutes in the Big 12. And if that's the case, we're stuck playing Davenport or Nolley at the 4. We really need another big who is a known quantity.It seems like Wes's philosophy is that player development happens in practice, not so much in games. He plays the guys who he thinks give the best chance to win and those minutes are earned in practice.
If a guy isn't earning those minutes in practice, he's not going to magically develop in games. It seems he values that philosophy more than giving young guys minutes to help them develop for next year.
Reed followed the normal course of development for a freshman, he didn't play much. That's too be expected and doesn't mean he's a bust. Most freshmen don't contribute all that much in year one.
Hensley could probably use some visits to a sports therapist. His problem is more mental than physical. He has the athleticism and the physical ability, but he plays scared. Scared of contact, of making a mistake, of fully committing to a play. If he can figure it out, he could still make a big jump and earn minutes quickly with his defensive ability. His defense was excellent, but his rebounding and offense were terrible this year. As I've said before, I've mostly given up hope on him and expect him to transfer, but if Wes believes he can turn it around I don't have a problem with Hensley staying another year.
Sage we don't know much of anything about. He has had a year to bulk up and supposedly has a pretty diverse offensive skill set. Best case he could provide 10-15 quality minutes next year.
Davenport is the main guy I just can't see playing more than 5-10 minutes next year. He's outmatched athletically in the AAC. I just can't see how he makes it in the Big 12.
Well that's exactly the problem, if these guys aren't developing enough in practice to see the floor in games, we shouldn't be counting on them to magically develop over the offseason to the point where they are giving us 15 minutes in the Big 12. And if that's the case, we're stuck playing Davenport or Nolley at the 4. We really need another big who is a known quantity.
Day Day and Jizzle are unknowns (to us anyway), but I think between them we can count on at least 10 minutes. Jizzle is a similar caliber recruit as Skillings was, and Day Day at least has some experience at a higher level than high school with fewer than 3 turnovers per 40 minutes. I don't want to have 4 PG on the roster if it means we are thin on the front line. If Wes doesn't plan on those guys playing 20 minutes between them, then I think we have to replace MAW with a better veteran guard.
I look at Newman as a guard, regardless of scoring capacity. He plays on the wing, either the 2 or 3. If he's playing the 3 we essentially have a 3 guard lineup. Our current roster has 5 guards with 3 who can play point, same as we went into this season with. We can add more, but I think the priority right now has to be shoring up the interior.I think we need another guard even if MAW stays. I don't think we can count on Jizzle to provide quality minutes (nothing against Jizzle, just that freshmen usually don't, even top 100 ones). Day Day is a bit of a mystery coming from JUCO. Plus between even with both of them we only have 4 guys total who play PG/SG (MAW, Day Day, Skillings and Jizzle). Newman could probably slide to SG if needed, but he didn't provide a lot of offensive fire power (though he could have developed quite a bit).
The message is you will be the starting PG on a Big 12 team. 10-15 minutes is all we expect from Day Day or Jizzle. They just need to provide backup duties and not turn the ball over. I absolutely think we can find a grad transfer PG who is better than MAW. I think the backup plan is if MAW stays and we're hoping that Jizzle and Day Day are good enough to reduce MAW below 20 minutes. We should find out shortly. Wes might already have a feel for who he can bring in, and whether MAW stays should answer the question.Jizzle and Day Day might be able to account for most of the PG minutes, but a scenario where Day Day averages 10-15 minutes and Jizzle close to 0 is just as (if not more) likely. Do you really think we can pull in a better PG than MAW (or even at his level) from the transfer portal when the message is probably "we hope you're a 10-15 minute bench guy, but if things don't pan out with other guys, you may be our lead PG"?.
The message is you will be the starting PG on a Big 12 team. 10-15 minutes is all we expect from Day Day or Jizzle. They just need to provide backup duties and not turn the ball over. I absolutely think we can find a grad transfer PG who is better than MAW. I think the backup plan is if MAW stays and we're hoping that Jizzle and Day Day are good enough to reduce MAW below 20 minutes. We should find out shortly. Wes might already have a feel for who he can bring in, and whether MAW stays should answer the question.
If Nolley stays, I think we're in pretty good shape with Nolley/Newman/ Skillings/Rayvon on the wing. I'd take another wing if he's better than Skillings for sure though. I have high hopes for Skillings next year.
I don't have such high hopes for frontcourt depth right now. I like Lakhin in a starting role, and I think Ody is ideally a backup 4. Maybe we're ok at 5 if Sage can give is 15 minutes there. But surely we can find someone who is better than Sage, Hensley, and Reed.
My transfer priorities are a big first, followed by a veteran PG and then a wing.
Doing a quick scan on Torvik's portal page, I searched for combo guards by filtering for players with a minimum 18 assist rate and maximum 5 OReb rate. There are currently 27 with a PRPG of at least 2.0, better than MAW (on offense). 15 of them also have steal rates higher than MAW. I'd think a starting role in the Big 12 would be appealing to some of them.I think the plan is for Day Day/Jizzle to handle most of the PG duties (25ish minutes) and a veteran backup PG (like MAW) to provide the other 15 or more if the plan fails. If Day/Jizzle combine for under 20 minutes, then I agree that changes things, but I don't think getting a better PG than MAW from the transfer portal is an easy task. If MAW transfers he will probably be rated right around 100.
Doing a quick scan on Torvik's portal page, I searched for combo guards by filtering for players with a minimum 18 assist rate and maximum 5 OReb rate. There are currently 27 with a PRPG of at least 2.0, better than MAW (on offense). 15 of them also have steal rates higher than MAW. I'd think a starting role in the Big 12 would be appealing to some of them.
Switching to big men, there are only 22 players with a minimum 8 OReb rate and PRPG of at least 2.0, and 30 if the PRPG threshold is lowered to Ody's 1.4. This is why I say the portal isn't a gold mine. By the time you sort out the players who aren't upgrades, there's not a lot left.Doing a quick scan on Torvik's portal page, I searched for combo guards by filtering for players with a minimum 18 assist rate and maximum 5 OReb rate. There are currently 27 with a PRPG of at least 2.0, better than MAW (on offense). 15 of them also have steal rates higher than MAW. I'd think a starting role in the Big 12 would be appealing to some of them.
See the problem is MaW or JD couldn't compete in BIG12, my issue is I don't want none of new guys penciled in as starters. So I want the new guys in roles fans want for our old guys. We need 3 absolutely maybe 4 starters from portal going into BIG12. Even if they all fail I'll rather take chance with them trying something different.It seems like Wes's philosophy is that player development happens in practice, not so much in games. He plays the guys who he thinks give the best chance to win and those minutes are earned in practice.
If a guy isn't earning those minutes in practice, he's not going to magically develop in games. It seems he values that philosophy more than giving young guys minutes to help them develop for next year.
Reed followed the normal course of development for a freshman, he didn't play much. That's too be expected and doesn't mean he's a bust. Most freshmen don't contribute all that much in year one.
Hensley could probably use some visits to a sports therapist. His problem is more mental than physical. He has the athleticism and the physical ability, but he plays scared. Scared of contact, of making a mistake, of fully committing to a play. If he can figure it out, he could still make a big jump and earn minutes quickly with his defensive ability. His defense was excellent, but his rebounding and offense were terrible this year. As I've said before, I've mostly given up hope on him and expect him to transfer, but if Wes believes he can turn it around I don't have a problem with Hensley staying another year.
Sage we don't know much of anything about. He has had a year to bulk up and supposedly has a pretty diverse offensive skill set. Best case he could provide 10-15 quality minutes next year.
Davenport is the main guy I just can't see playing more than 5-10 minutes next year. He's outmatched athletically in the AAC. I just can't see how he makes it in the Big 12.
That's why I use PRPG and not ORtg. A player moving up a league will see his usage rate drop, and theoretically his ORtg would improve. Cane Broome is a good example. He had a PRPG of 3.1 at Sacred Heart with a really high usage rate and just ok ORtg. At Cincinnati, his PRPG dropped but his ORtg improved as he became a role player.Of those, I see 5 who are coming from a conference at a level equal to or higher than the AAC (2 Big East, 2 AAC, 1 PAC12), anyone moving up a level is going to see a (possibly large) drop in play. Recall that Cane Broome was conference player of the year in the NEC, had a year sitting to develop and still couldn't earn a starting role at UC.
Then you also have to account for DRTG, MAW is a good to very good defender (and knows the scheme).
Throw in some unmeasurables (work ethic, knowledge of the system and so forth) and the number of CG's clearly better than MAW in the transfer portal currently is a lot closer to 0 (I'd estimate around 5) than 27.
That's why I use PRPG and not ORtg. A player moving up a league will see his usage rate drop, and theoretically his ORtg would improve. Cane Broome is a good example. He had a PRPG of 3.1 at Sacred Heart with a really high usage rate and just ok ORtg. At Cincinnati, his PRPG dropped but his ORtg improved as he became a role player.
A lot of the leagues on that list aren't that much worse than the AAC (the NEC is terrible). The Ivy, CUSA, WAC, and SunBelt are all above average conferences. There's a couple guys on the list from the Ohio Valley and one from the Southland, but everyone else plays in a league that is at least ok.
I suppose you could put a number to conference change. NEC to AAC seemed to be about 1.5 PRPG. I think AAC to Big 12 and something like the Ivy to AAC are about 0.5. So maybe a 2.5 PRPG threshold from middle conferences should be used as a target. That trims the list to about a dozen. The player does have to be a good fit of course. Athletic guards would be less likely to be overmatched in the better league.
The problem with MAW is his usage rate is already really low, and if he needs to pick up some of the creator load from DDJ's departure, I expect his ORtg to suffer. And his lack of athleticism in a better league should also make his ORtg suffer. I don't want to run him off unless we are confident in an upgrade. But we're looking at going into the Big 12 with a starting PG with a 1.5 PRPG.
Yeah I agree. I hope this is coming across as more of a discussion than an argument.You also have to account for defense. Defense is the main reason why Kalu (who played in "not much worse" A10 conference) bombed. Nolley struggled with it as well.
Then there's player development as well. Players who stick with the same team multiple years have a lot more opportunity to develop/be developed. A new guy has to focus on learning the schemes on offense/defense and correcting any major deficiencies the staff sees before they can start on skill development. In addition they have less time to do so, as the join later in the year.
MAW doesn't need to be a creator if we have enough at other positions. Remember Justin Jenifer's senior season? You need guys who can knock down threes to spread the floor to pair with slashers who create. If Skillings, Day Day and possibly Newman, Nolley or Jizzle (or a transfer we bring in) can be those creators, MAW can play a valuable role.
I think you agree with my overall point, the transfer portal may look enticing due to sheer number of players, but once you start to trim it down there aren't all that many top options and there are a lot of teams competing for them. If Wes is sure he can bring in a top PG, then sure forcing MAW out to make room makes sense. If not though, there's a lot to be said for sticking with the safe and reliable option.
Yeah I agree. I hope this is coming across as more of a discussion than an argument.
I know defense is half the battle, but we only have steal and foul rates as recorded stats. There are proxies like DRtg or DBPM, but I don't think those are reliable. I think MAW is an above average but not great defender. We could get a good offensive player with average defense or an elite defender with limited offense like Phinisee.
Jenifer was great shooting 40% from three alongside an elite creator in Cumberland. We don't have that situation. I'm looking for a PG who won't play much alongside Day Day or Jizzle. Newman isn't really a creator. Skillings doesn't have much court awareness yet and I doubt he'll be a distributor next year. I've proposed Nolley as a point forward for a while but Wes doesn't use him that way. I think we need a creator at PG, not just a floor general.