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ervins84

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ESPN3 has a lot of games archived on their website that you can watch replays of. I watched a couple Mizz games last night and, while im sure none of this will shock anyone, these were the things i noticed


***yes im now officially the biggest nerd alive**** feel free to flame away

10 General Observations:

1. Man 2 man press from the get go.
2. Hustles/recovers well in transition when press broken/scrappy/active hands
3. Poor at boxing out/rebounding principles
4. Big men seem to be inactive at times on the boards
5. Very weak on stopping offensive rebounds
6. Very quick outlets on missed shots when def rebd
7. Quick outlets on made baskets.
8. Forces lots of turnovers
9. Questionable shot selection and scoring droughts when cant force TOs
10. If cincy comes out with a high energy, they will win.


Offense:
Motion pass/pick away/cut away etc
3 out 2 in. 4 out 1 in. or even 5 out at times pending on the lineup.
Fast breaks every chance possible
Can go small, rarely plays more than 2 "bigs" (guys bigger than 6'6 at a time.)
Denmon, English, Dixon, Flip Pressey all can catch/shoot the 3 when open.

Defense:
Always full court man to man, but not always trapping out of it.
Will trap aggressively when the pressys are on the floor.
Vulnerable to back door cuts.
Overplays a lot, including entry passes, shot fakes.
High risk/high reward defense that you must be strong with the ball against and make good fakes or they will steal it every time.



Who are these guys? these are their main 8 guys

#1 Flip Pressey: 5'10 Freshman.
Role player, but will be main guy by junior year in future
Good dribble penetration, but not always the best passes.
Questionable decisions on entry passes and passes to the wing.
High turnover rate
Active hands and moves feet defensively very well.
Drew a charge 30 ft from basket in man 2 manD against Lance Jeter, when not helping
Can/will knock down open 3s when catch/shoot

#3 Matt Pressey 6'1
Role player
Not sure if this is Flips older brother or if its just his cousin
Solid athlete but below av outside shooter and poor decisions with the ball
Good defender, but offensive liability.

#24 English 6'6
Mostly seems to be a catch/shoot shooter
Questionable off the dribble.
Not as good when forced to put the ball on the floor.
Must pressure him when he has the ball.
Very good coming off screens, but doesnt seem to get the ball much in those situations

#23 Safford 6'9
Hesitated from 18 ft top of key wide open jumper
Does not deny the post entry even 6-7 ft from the rim. Plays behind.
Will shoot 3s when wide open despite low % from 3.
Possibly leave him open on perimeter on purpose due to poor outside shooting %.
Actually, no just dare him to shoot
Not strong passing out of a post double team, but unsure of what offensive moves he even has to warrant a double team

#12 Denmon 6'3
Probably their best player right now.
Lights out shooter
Can not give any space whatsoever and can not leave to help
Can attack rim well, but doesn't do it enough.
Disappears for extended stretches and needs to demand the ball more.
ABSOLUTELY SCARY if he gets going. If he has a big game, Cincy will not win.

#11 Dixon 6'1
Very tough in transition with scoring or dishing it off.
Pushes the ball well, hyper active/quick hands defensively.
Going to make Cashmeres life very difficult.
Nice shot off catch shoot, but doesnt seem to get a lot of looks that way in the half court offense at all. Only real catch/shoot looks come in transition or off rebounds.
Not sure of how he is off dribble shooting, but will take tough shots
Has the ball in his hands a lot
Can create his own shot better than most, but has questionable shot selection
Can get really hot though, and when he gets squared up with rhythm catch/shoot looks watch out.

#21 Bowers 6'8
Very skilled rebounder when he wants to be.
Disappears at times
Good finisher on rbds
Elite athlete
Can attack the rim really well for his size when facing up


#10 Ratliffe 6'8
Screen and rolls with dixon at end of shot clock on wings a lot.
Not a great finisher off of passes in half court, but can finish in open floor.
Very strong n athletic
Poor outside shooter, will take 3's when left open. Dare him to shoot.
Good finishing off of missed baskets/rbds, but weak with back to the basket and ball in the post (seems to lack post moves and not a great passer)
 
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You managed to watch more then one of there games last night!? impressive, yet questionable time managment ;)

Great analysis.
 
I agree with a lot of what you wrote. Missouri goes as Denmon goes. They are very vulnerable to lay ups in their press if you attack it and are patient with your passes. If Cincinnati keeps turnovers down they "should" win.

UC's inside advantage should allow them to really press the perimeter. The Bearcats "should" own the boards.

To me this game will come down to energy. I liken Missouri to Louisville/Villanova personnel wise. Scheme wise I think the team closet to them in the BEast is Villanova in that they attack constantly on both sides of the floor.

If the Bearcats are patient on offense, play with energy, own the boards and limit turnovers, I believe they can win this game handily. They cannot give up open three point shots and allow penetration. Missouri will not beat the Bearcats if UC limits their turnovers to 12 or less and the Bearcats guard the three point line with purpose.

Mental toughness will be a huge factor in this game, as Missouri will not stop coming at them. Cash has to come more ready to play then he did in the league tournament. He was 1-7 from the field, 0-2 from three, shot only 2 ft's, averaged 2 ppg, and had 5 assists versus 3 turnovers. Basically he was nonexistent. UC will not advance if he doesn't come to play.

Dixon has played lights out and we will need him to keep showing up. Dion was 10-20 from the field, 6-13 from the three, 10-12 from the ft line, averaged 18 ppg, 3.5 rpg, and had 4 assist versus 3 turnovers. With Davis only 11 for his last 48 (22.9%) three point attempts somebody has to keep the Mizzou defense honest on the perimeter.

Fwiw, Jeff Goodman has Missouri advancing to the elite 8 and losing to Texas.
 
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Awesome breakdown, thanks for taking the time. After watching it did you get a better sense of UC winning. I have been trying to find one of their fan blog sites to see what they have been saying about the matchup, but no luck haha
 
Ervins84, i really appreciate your time and input...very informative...repped for the effort
Go Bearcats!
 
Awesome breakdown, thanks for taking the time. After watching it did you get a better sense of UC winning. I have been trying to find one of their fan blog sites to see what they have been saying about the matchup, but no luck haha

Im friends with a couple of mizz fans on one of the poker forums I frequent alot and they're very knowledgeable bball fans so ill cross post what they say in the next day or two

I wish I could say uc will win this game every time, but mizzs a solid team. I think uc is just slightly more than a coin flip to win the game, but ido think if cincy just plays well eg average from 3 pt line and doesnt turn the ball over/start the offense 30 ft from the rim, then I think cincy will win

dominating the glass and defending are two things I think uc will do no matter what though, but they may not be enough if cash/dion play poorly
 
Great analysis. I've seen them play here in big 12 country twice and when they can get open shots they are hard to deal with. I think our defenses trumps there offense. It's a matter of handling the press correctly. Mick was an asst here when Anderson was at UAB so hopefully he remembers some stuff from his VC days since he had to break it down.
 
Watched Mizz a couple times this year and every time Kim English was there leading scorer. If my memory serves me right, Cincy recruited English. He is very good shooter when his feet are set. He however is a little soft and someone like Bishop playing aggressive on him would make a good difference. I was thinking 3 quarters of the way through the year that if Cincy makes the tournament i wouldnt care if they win there first game or not. After listening to a couple of these idiots i would love to recant my opinion and tell everyone that i cant wait for UC to whip Mizz's ass. Missouri is no easy out, but these bearcats have been through enough and its time to prove who they are. Cant wait for the game.
 
Can we forward this on to Coach Cronin? Great job Ervins!

Haha. Thanks for the compliments guys, but really any one that's scouted at the high school level or higher could do what I did and most of them a lot better.

Id imagine mick has guys cut/edit video clips of each player broken down like they do on the synergy sports site for nba breakdowns, into things like
Isolation
Pick n roll as ball handler
P,n roll as screener
Catch/shoot
Post on block back to bask
Face up In post
high post elbow
Corner 3s
Transition
Off dribble to rt and left etc

They should have a program that will show them every single denmon catch/shoot play that hes done during the season. As much as I can't stand gottlieb anymore, I think even he has access to these vids which if ur breaking down games w/o them it can be really hard
 
here were the comments from the Mizz fans that i think know a lot about cbb throughout the season. still waiting for their response on the breakdown i did of their team.



posts from Mizz fans that i respect:

Post #1 made dec 28, 2010
I'm looking forward to this year a lot. Big 12 has 6 top 25 teams, so should make for a great conference season.

I'm more excited about Mizzou this year than ever before. They aren't a favorite or anything, but I think they have a legitimate chance at a National Championship this year.


Post #2 Dec 28, 2010
Yeah, they could use more consistency out of English. He has the potential to be deadly, but he's so inconsistent. Denmon is a wicked good shooter though. He was 47% from beyond the arc going into last night's game and he lit it up there, so might be over 50% now.

What we really need is better rebounders. Illinois had 10 Offensive boards against us in the first 11 minutes of the first half.

Post #3
Jan 3rd 2011
I think it's going to come down to 2 things.

1. English needs to shoot well. With him shooting well, and you know Denmon will show up, we can put up a lot of perimeter points. Factor in Dixon/Pressey who are both great PG's to keep our interior and midgame going, we will be very strong offensively.

2. Rebounding. Ratliffe and Bowers need to step it up a bit. They are great big men, but I can't imagine how they'll fare against the top big men in the country.

That's not to say these are our only important parts. I'm very pleased with the consistency of everything else though. And, nobody will beat us in transition. Nobody.


Post #4 Jan 30, 2011
i would be more than happy with an elite 8 run. next year is the year, only player we lose is safford and he ****ing sucks...we could go anywhere from out 1st round to final four if we get lucky breaks....we prob win championship 2% of the time (50-1)....ABSOLULEY sucks that tony mitchell ruled ineligible, then i think we have a legit shot at final four with him in. texas/kansas still the team to beat in the big 12 and they are simply better teams than us. AM not far behind if at all (shoulda won that game, denmon shooting a 36 foot three up by 1 in OT with 20 seconds left on shot clocl and 38 seconds left on game clock was dumbest shot iv ever seen. we should have won that game with free throws also the GT game....****ing bowers cant make 2 clutchfree throws to save his life


the texas game worried me, they are a great team at home but they played like **** and so did we...that stuff happens i mean we were 4/22 from 3 and still never out of the game completely but we could not go on any runs..but texas played awful as well so that game made me think less of mizzou too


Post #5 Jan 30th, 2011
bleh, Mizzou sucked last night. Texas didn't play very well IMO (although they forced us to take some bad shots).

Was very frustrating to watch. We forced so many shots, many early in the shot clock w/o trying to run the offense.

The one positive to take from it was that we played like ****, on the road, against a very good team, and still were in the game until ~2-3 mins to go.


Post #6 Jan 30, 2011
yea i thought we just sucked too until they showed the SICK texas defensive stats...they average (maybe it was average over last 5 games..which includes kansas and some other good teams like AM)holding opponents to like 30% FG which is where we were at (4/22 from three didnt help)..texas is just abettter team, they could have won by 30 they were 16/34 from ft we were 16/21 which is incredibly rare cuz we suck at shooing...i was just waiing the whole ****in game for justt 2 possessions where we walked up and hit a denmon/dixon/english/pressey three pointer and cut those 10-11-12 poin leads to 6 and be back in it but it never happened. English is absolutley aids his year even tho he has had a decent game....denmon played terribly and we are never gonna win with that performance......and ratliffe looked lost on defense and his normally easy bank shots from five feet away were just not going in. Texas is just plain better on he road, hence the 7.5 pt spread.....still favored on neutral court but i cant wait till we get the opportunity to play them in kc at the big 12 tourney if it happens...both teams should play better but damn texas looked ****in good to me....i think they might be right up there with ohio state


edit- i thought we needed more ratliffe but frankly they d-ed him up superbly not fouling just standing up straight forcing him to make tough shots which were not going in and he was not drawing fouls which was weird. i just hink texas is too good


this oklahoma state game on the road is key cuz they are fightin for their bubble life and they have a decent team and we are way diff on the road...im not sure what the spread will be, no more than 4 points for us i imagine


Post #7 March 12, 2011
Can someone explain to me why Mizzou sucks so bad and can't shoot a ****ing basketball

Post #8 March 13, 2011
Mind-boggling. They aren't running the offense and aren't getting open looks. Without looking at their stats, I bet they aren't pressuring teams in that "40 minutes of hell" style as well as they should be.


Post #9 March 13, 2011

From the last two games I watched which were vs Kansas and Texas A&M they hardly even tried putting pressure on in the full court. The few times they did the opposition broke through it with ease.

Their offense in the half-court is completely stagnant and they've shot like under 25% in 2 of the last 3 games.

Post #10 March 13, 2011
Got tickets to the first and second round games in DC and get to see Mizzou (**** yeah) but they're gonna get raped if they keep playing like they have.
 
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Your point in posting those was? Not trying to be a A-hole just curious...

always think its interesting to see how people who watch a team throughout the season think at the time.

Thought it gave some insight as to what kind of team mizz has been throughout the year.

ill delete it if theres something wrong with that though. Theyre not just random internet posts, theyre guys that know a lot about the team mizz, which was kinda the title of the thread.
 
i thought it was hilarious going from we are contending for a national championship to we are going to get raped
 
Prob the guy i respect the most from the group on bball, his look at mizz.
pretty sure game is a pickem in vegas or was a couple hours ago anyway


denmon is by far missouri's best player, he is best shooter and by far best at creating own shot

phil pressey/dixon split time at point, either one can play terribly or well, both are always fastest player on court, both love to drive in and shoot circus shots that go in 10% of the time and they aren't big enough to get fouled or force contact, only denmon is

bowers is our only consistent big man, he is really good inside and at draining the open 10-15 footers from a dixon/pressey/denmon drive/pass

english was our best player/shooter last year but he is absolute aids this year and has no problem shooting whenever he wants, even if he is wide open he will fade away and miss, its guaranteed

ratliff shows flashes of brilliance but he is soft and disappears inside for long stretches and whole games


safford is AIDS we will be better off without him next year...steve moore is a much better defender and i dont like him at all either

Ricky kreklow should never be on the floor but he is for some reason. he is terrible right now



on defense as long as cincy gets the ball over half court they will be gtd tons of open shots...if they are shooting poorly they probably wont win, but missouri is bad on the boards so should get some rebounds.....if they have more than 1 decent 3 point shooter they will get tons of open looks

missouri subscribes to the "if you dont shoot you cant make it" philosophy which makes them look horrendous lately cuz they are shooting terribly


i dont know what team i expect, we have sucked lately, and wheneever we have the moore/english/kreklow/matt pressey/safford lineup in we are probably the worst team in the tourney






all that being said, cincinatti is not a powerhouse, if both teams play their A game (which i highly doubt will be the case), i expect missouri to win. if missouri shoots well i would be very suprised if they lose...but the problem is they dont ever shoot well anymore and its not like they are just running bad missing open shots, the offense isnt producing open shots, but i think it will be alot harder for cincy to defend mizzou than the big 12 teams who see the style year in and year out

im not much for X's and O's, i never played competitive basketball so my notes are just casualfan.jpg..and i went to high school/am good friends with dixon

the only positive thing about missouri is that we have at least 3 shooters who are very capable of getting hot and not being able to miss....denmon and phil pressey especially, they go through stretches where they literally just walk up and shoot 26 foot threes and make a bunch in a row....(even if there is 25 secs left on shot clock/40secs left on game clock and we are up by 1 in OT AS;DKJFA;SDKJLFASJOFAPSFJASPFJ TEXAS AM TILT!!)


we are a dumb team who makes stupid mistakes too
 
I'm not completely hip on on the new lingo, but is he calling dudes "aids" because they suck? Am I missing something or is that a new term that is socially acceptable now? Seems in bad taste to me.
 
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