20-21 thread

[skyblade]

I share some of the concerns you have but this seems awfully pessimistic overall rather than looking at more of the positive potential. I guess everyone has their own way of looking at things but I like the middle of the road to positive perspective as a fan. I am not a pie in the sky guy...but definitely not a Debbie Downer either. Cheer up my friend and try to look on the bright side. It may not turn out that way...but there is no harm in it

I try to be a realist, I have been pretty positive plenty of years. I'm not getting my hopes up for a great season this year though. I just don't see it, we are too young and have too many new faces - especially with Covid throwing a wrench into things. Plus I'm not that convinced by Vogt, Rap or even DeJulius yet.

Besides Keith, there is no one on the team I'm willing to bet will make even 3rd team all conference, much less first or second. I hope I'm proven wrong on Vogt or Rap or that somebody else steps up. But for now I'm just planning to watch the season for the enjoyment of watching guys grow and improve and I'll be quite glad to make the NCAA tournament.

 

[Jon Rycek]

I was replying to the post just above mine that points out their best player is their center and hoping Vogt can win the matchup. Not like he's the only player I mentioned in the post either.

But if you can't take bad things being said about Vogt you can always mute me.

No I enjoy it too much lol

 

[Jon Rycek]

Anybody see that game Diarra had, BEAST

 

[Jon Rycek]

We really showed who we can be down the stretch, pace was huge in this game and we made it our pace we just got it out of control fast. And Vogt played very well at a faster pace. MAW looks like he’s improved bug time. Would have like to see more out of Williams but he played pretty well second half. And Harvey also looks like he made some strides. 1-0 best start we can have so far.

 

[justinhub2003]

On paper, USF looks like a really tough team. FWIW though, their KP is 105, not 60.

They return 7 lettermen including 3.5 starters from last year's team, re-added an NBA-caliber talent in Yetna, along with a top 100 recruit in Caleb Murphy, and a couple high-major transfer bigs who come off the bench.

So far they've been pretty predictable with their performances.

They've decisively beaten the KP 200+ teams on their schedule (Stetson and FGCU).

They've decisively lost to the KP top 100 teams they've played (Rhode Island and Va. Tech).

And then they barely beat a KP 135 Wofford team.

We went on a 36-11 2nd half run to beat them in Tampa for our penultimate game of the year last season.

If Keith and Vogt can stay on the court then I like us to win comfortably. If not, then we're looking at a rock fight.

I haven't seen anything about this UC team that tells me they can win games against decent teams comfortably.

Just like last year was full of last minute games, I feel like this will be as well.

To me every team will be in the game because of these reasons:

1. We don't shoot well from 3 (25%)
2. We don't protect the rim
3. We Foul too Damn much
4. We shoot poorly from the line (64%, a staple of CJB teams)


When you can't get separation with the 3 point ball, and you either allow wide open layups OR foul so much that the other team is in the bonus with 14 min left in a half and you can't convert free throws, its a recipe for every game being a grinder.

 

[waterhead]

I haven't seen anything about this UC team that tells me they can win games against decent teams comfortably.

Just like last year was full of last minute games, I feel like this will be as well.

To me every team will be in the game because of these reasons:

1. We don't shoot well from 3 (25%)
2. We don't protect the rim
3. We Foul too Damn much
4. We shoot poorly from the line (64%, a staple of CJB teams)


When you can't get separation with the 3 point ball, and you either allow wide open layups OR foul so much that the other team is in the bonus with 14 min left in a half and you can't convert free throws, its a recipe for every game being a grinder.

For the time being I think you are probably right. But just like last year we have a lot of first year guys. Rap, DD, Eason, Saunders, Madsen (x2), and Lakhin. That is over half the roster. Last year we had Vogt (kind of), Sorolla, McNeal, Cumberland, MAW, Davenport, Harvey. Again over half the roster.

I expect CJB to make bigger strides in season than most teams because of this. Rap has already changed positions and Davenport has already become a bigger part of the rotation than most fans were expecting. Once we get in the flow where all the players know their roles things will start to get better. Hell even Keith being the alpha was going to be a see what happens type of thing. CJB will be adjusting play calling based on what he has seen and what he will see in the future.

It's still too early for this roster to be deciding if we can get this thing running like a more well oiled machine. It's been a patchwork so far. Not to mention playing with reportedly our two best offensive options on the bench for significant stretches. Dejulius and Davenport give us some nice options for play making and shooting. When they all play together some of the pressure to score will be taken off of each of them and scoring can become more of a team shared effort. That is what CJB wants to see....get your points in the flow of the game rather than forcing the ball to a single player.

As usual I am thinking we should be patient with the short run. As long as we are playing our best basketball late...we should be in good shape. If not for an at large then maybe a chance at a conference tourney win. If neither happens but we are playing much better....I still think that is ultimately going to be okay in the grand scheme.

 

[waterhead]

With the loss of Dou we have now 7 of 12 players in the first year playing in the system (and three of those aren't playing). And of those remaining 5 only Keith and Vogt are upper classmen who have played 1 year in the system.

So we have 7 first year guys...3 of which have played 5 minutes or less on the season. 3 sophs with 1 year experience...but only one of those who played a significant amount last year. And 2 Sr.s who have experience...no juniors. Vogt has fouled out with less than 20 minutes twice in four games. And Williams has played 22 or less in 2 of 4 games.

 

[waterhead]

From the trends I am seeing with no foul trouble I would guess Vogt is going to be out there for 30-35 minutes (in close games)...same with Williams and Dejulius. For the last couple of Games Eason has been around 25 minutes but I could see him getting 25-30 going forward if he keeps valuing the ball.

I think that lineup can go toe to toe with all of our conference with only Houston seeming like the outlier. If Vogt is getting 30-35 then it will be tough for Rap to get more than 10 with Davenport playing like he is. And I am okay with that for sure. I think Mikey is just fine for whatever minutes DD leaves on the floor. So it all comes down to MAW and Harvey as the final piece to the puzzle. I would hope we can get one or the other to play well on any given night.

Foul trouble (for two of our best players) IMO is the single biggest problem right now. It is affecting every other part of the game. Obviously it leads to FT's. From a scoring aspect it leads to not having 4-5 scoring options on the court together to keep a D honest. It means single players don't have to force play making which drops our efficiency. It takes a rim protector out of the game and another decent defender off the floor.

So if Williams and Vogt can stay on the floor for 30+ minutes it solves a hell of a lot of other problems.

 

[sedziobs]

The foul trouble has been very disappointing so far, especially since the main problem has been seniors committing freshman-type fouls. Williams hand-checking and Vogt setting illegal screens or committing offensive fouls in the post are just mental mistakes. I don't know what the reason for that is. If Vogt is going to foul out, I want it to be because he's going after rebounds and protecting the rim. He can't afford any other variety of foul.

 

[waterhead]

The foul trouble has been very disappointing so far, especially since the main problem has been seniors committing freshman-type fouls. Williams hand-checking and Vogt setting illegal screens or committing offensive fouls in the post are just mental mistakes. I don't know what the reason for that is. If Vogt is going to foul out, I want it to be because he's going after rebounds and protecting the rim. He can't afford any other variety of foul.

I would think Keith is going to have to dial it back for his own sake if not for the sake of the team. He can't get drafted if he's always on the bench. Not to mention I am sure the coach is telling him about these dumb fouls as well. Vogt needs to be more careful too...even if he's the only one standing in the way of the basket after a guard lets someone through. Just make them shoot over you and see if it goes in