2019-2020 NET rankings & team sheets

[sedziobs]

This thread will be moderated to stay on topic. Keep discussions limited to rankings, team sheets, and resumes. Off topic posts will be moved to the open thread.

In the first release of the NET rankings this season, UC is 110. A good resource is Warren Nolan: warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/schedule/Cincinnati

Quadrants:

Q1: Home 1-30 / Neutral 1-50/ Away 1-75
Q2: Home 31-75 / Neutral 51-100 / Away 76-135
Q3: Home 76-160 / Neutral 101-200 / Away 136-240
Q4: Home 161+ / Neutral 201+ / Away 241+

Our current quadrant records:

Q1 0-2
Q2 0-0
Q3 3-1
Q4 3-1

Colgate (177) is a Q4 loss, but can move to Q3 if they improve to 160. Bowling Green (113) is a Q3 loss, but can move to Q2 if they improve to 100. Our next four games are against Q1 or Q2 opponents.

 

[Queens_NYC]

I think our NET ranking gives a much more accurate depiction of where we currently stand amongst our peers than our KenPom ranking (62nd).

10 games in and we have 0 good wins, 2 bad losses, and need to improve our playing form considerably to re-enter the conversation of becoming a potential NCAA tournament team again.

 

[justinhub2003]

We win the the next 3 games and I think you right the ship.

2 out of 3 are at home.

It’s not impossible. But it will take 2nd half defense

 

[sedziobs]

We're currently 0-3 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 2 bad losses. Here's how the schedule looks right now:

Q1
3 @Ohio St
11 Wichita St
11 @Wichita St
12 Memphis
12 @Memphis
35 @Temple
43 @Houston
23 Iowa
48 @Xavier

Q2
35 Temple
43 Houston
67 Tennessee
79 @UConn
93 @UCF
134 @Tulane

Q3
77 SMU
79 UConn
89 Vermont
93 UCF
121 Tulsa
142 Colgate
156 Valpo
158 Drake
164 Bowling Green
165 @USF
176 Illinois St
230 @ECU

Q4
166 UNLV
230 ECU
298 Alabama A&M

We'll want ECU and Tulsa to lose every game, since neither of them are going to give us a Q1/2 opportunity. USF is probably in the same boat.

 

[cincyguy13]

We're currently 0-3 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 2 bad losses. Here's how the schedule looks right now:

Q1
3 @Ohio St
11 Wichita St
11 @Wichita St
12 Memphis
12 @Memphis
35 @Temple
43 @Houston
23 Iowa
48 @Xavier

Q2
35 Temple
43 Houston
67 Tennessee
79 @UConn
93 @UCF
134 @Tulane

Q3
77 SMU
79 UConn
89 Vermont
93 UCF
121 Tulsa
142 Colgate
156 Valpo
158 Drake
164 Bowling Green
165 @USF
176 Illinois St
230 @ECU

Q4
166 UNLV
230 ECU
298 Alabama A&M

We'll want ECU and Tulsa to lose every game, since neither of them are going to give us a Q1/2 opportunity. USF is probably in the same boat.

If we win out, we are probably a 1-2 seed though. I think we should try that.

 

[sedziobs]

I'll try to make this a weekly update.

Q1
14 @Ohio St
10Wichita St
10 @Wichita St
24 Memphis
24 @Memphis
67 @Temple
38 @Houston
43 Iowa
54 @Xavier

Q2
60 SMU
67 Temple
38 Houston
68 Tennessee
88 @UConn
105 @UCF
116 @Tulane

Q3
88 UConn
103 Vermont
105 UCF
113 Tulsa
133 Colgate
169 Valpo
139 Drake
177 Bowling Green
137 @USF
236 @ECU

Q4
163 UNLV
212 Illinois St
236 ECU
296 Alabama A&M

 

[cincrulz11]

plenty of opportunities, we must make the most of them.

 

[sedziobs]

Yeah, we only have 4 games left that aren't Q1 or Q2, and one of those (@USF) is very close to being Q2.

I still think 12-6 is the absolute minimum for us to be in the bubble conversation if things fall our way (meaning UConn, Houston, USF, and Vermont move up a quadrant). 13-5 probably puts us on the wrong side of the bubble with current rankings, and 14-4 on the right side of the bubble.

 

[waterhead]

Yeah, we only have 4 games left that aren't Q1 or Q2, and one of those (@USF) is very close to being Q2.

I still think 12-6 is the absolute minimum for us to be in the bubble conversation if things fall our way (meaning UConn, Houston, USF, and Vermont move up a quadrant). 13-5 probably puts us on the wrong side of the bubble with current rankings, and 14-4 on the right side of the bubble.

We have 3 games left where T-rank has the spread at +5 points or more

We have 5 games left where we are -5 or better.

Let's say all of that goes according to probability.

We have 7 games left where the spread is -2.2 to +2.2. We would need to take 5 of 7 of them to be at 12-6. Let's call those 50-50 games and we need to win 71% of them. Anything better than that may be on the right side of the bubble and anything worse would be on the wrong side. 12-6 would probably be a toss up.

 

[waterhead]

I can't remember the last time I heard about a "strong bubble". It almost always seems to be weak for some reason...lol!

And I don't remember....maybe someone can clue me in. Will the committee take into account recent form vs early form or is this just a straight up comparison of team sheets. When deciding on bubble teams will a late surge help or things like player injury hurt?

I seem to remember that it doesn't affect the decisions...but it has to be in the back of committee member minds when deciding.

 

[sedziobs]

All of the committee members are human, so they can make decisions however they want (like a jury). Technically the criteria is team sheet though. Quadrant records dominate team sheets. ESPN BPI, Kenpom, Sagarin, and non-conference are also on there though. Those will hurt us. Not on the team sheet is "Last 10 games" or something like that.

 

[waterhead]

All of the committee members are human, so they can make decisions however they want (like a jury). Technically the criteria is team sheet though. Quadrant records dominate team sheets. ESPN BPI, Kenpom, Sagarin, and non-conference are also on there though. Those will hurt us. Not on the team sheet is "Last 10 games" or something like that.

I guess I am wondering about the bubble where team sheets would/should be somewhat the same. I guess it would be similar to seeding teams when deciding between 2 teams with similar team sheets. I think what you are saying is then it becomes more of a gut feel by individuals at that point.

Do they each rank teams from 1 to 64 and turn in their ballot?

 

[sedziobs]

It's a long process (detailed here). These are the first two steps:

Each committee member will submit the ballot by a designated time on the first full day of selection meetings:

a. In the first column, each member shall identify not more than 36 teams that, in that member’s opinion, should be at- large selections (AL) in the tournament based upon play to date, regardless of whether the team could eventually represent its conference as the automatic qualifier.

b. In the second column, each member shall identify all teams that should receive consideration (C) for an at- large berth. There is no minimum or maximum limit in the second column; however, only teams meriting serious consideration should receive votes.

 

[kskenyon4]

I'll try to make this a weekly update.

Q1
14 @Ohio St
10Wichita St
10 @Wichita St
24 Memphis
24 @Memphis
67 @Temple
38 @Houston
43 Iowa
54 @Xavier

Q2
60 SMU
67 Temple
38 Houston
68 Tennessee
88 @UConn
105 @UCF
116 @Tulane

Q3
88 UConn
103 Vermont
105 UCF
113 Tulsa
133 Colgate
169 Valpo
139 Drake
177 Bowling Green
137 @USF
236 @ECU

Q4
163 UNLV
212 Illinois St
236 ECU
296 Alabama A&M

I can't imagine a scenario we're in as an at-large unless we're 3-3 in these games:
10Wichita St
10 @Wichita St
24 Memphis
24 @Memphis
67 @Temple
38 @Houston

 

[ervins84]

Margin of victory/ppp mattering is the best thing that gives us a chance. We moved from the mid 90's all the way to 65 after these two games.

Still need a lot to go our way for an at large, but they at least are drawing live to get in.

 

[sedziobs]

Temple and SMU were both knocked out of the top 75 this weekend. UCF is barely hanging on to a top 135 spot. Earlier I said we want Tulsa and ECU to lose every game. They're 4-2 combined. We're not getting the help we need in conference.

 

[Thegreatone]

Temple and SMU were both knocked out of the top 75 this weekend. UCF is barely hanging on to a top 135 spot. Earlier I said we want Tulsa and ECU to lose every game. They're 4-2 combined. We're not getting the help we need in conference.

We are fine - we are definitely not at the point where we need help from Tulsa and ECU.

 

[sedziobs]

Tulsa and ECU wins take away Q1 and Q2 games for us. It's as simple as that. At least two were taken away this weekend.

 

[waterhead]

Tulsa and ECU wins take away Q1 and Q2 games for us. It's as simple as that. At least two were taken away this weekend.

Still like that 12-6 (in conference) number Sedziobs. One way or another that is likely going to mean we get some Q1 and Q2 wins. Maybe just enough to sneak in.

I DEFINITELY think 13-5 is in and 11-7 is out.

 

[waterhead]

Still like that 12-6 (in conference) number Sedziobs. One way or another that is likely going to mean we get some Q1 and Q2 wins. Maybe just enough to sneak in.

I DEFINITELY think 13-5 is in and 11-7 is out.

I ran a simulation on T-rank with 6 losses. Away at Tulane, Memphis, Houston, WSU, and Uconn and one home loss to WSU.

It came up as first 4 teams out. Change Uconn or WSU to a win and we are last 4 in. Add one more loss and we are the 10th team in the out category.

A lot can change of course with a weak or strong bubble but the 5 or 6 losses could be a razor thin margin.