2019-2020 NET rankings & team sheets

[sedziobs]

Good analysis Waterhead. Those thin margins are why I put so much effort into tracking our quadrant records. 12-6 in conference (19-11 overall) won't cut it with only 14 Q1/Q2 games in my opinion. That would be 5-9 in quality games with two bad losses. 7-9 in quality games could give us a chance, but 9-9 is probably needed (that would mean Temple and SMU move back up, and a couple other teams like UConn and USF also).

Of course a better record than 12-6 makes things easier.

 

[sedziobs]

Q1
17 @Ohio St
19 Wichita St
19 @Wichita St
28 Memphis
28 @Memphis
30 Iowa
43 @Houston
69 @Xavier
71 @Temple

Q2
43 Houston
71 Temple
72 Tennessee
90 @UConn
112 @Tulane
113 @UCF

Q3
84 SMU
90 UConn
94 Vermont
96 Tulsa
113 UCF
130 Colgate
136 @USF
140 Drake
151 Bowling Green
152 UNLV
156 Valpo
237 @ECU

Q4
207 Illinois St
237 ECU
305 Alabama A&M

 

[Queens_NYC]

We rose 7 spots to 56 after beating Temple.


Tulsa rose 19 spots to 66 after last night's Memphis massacre giving us our 4th Q2 win of the season (along with Tenn, @UCF, @Temple).

On the downside, Memphis dropped 15 spots to 41, which no longer makes our home game with them Q1.

SMU, who sits at 70 right now, could be our 5th Q2 win if we beat them at home next Tuesday.

 

[sedziobs]

Q1
18 @Ohio St
22 Iowa
30 Wichita St
30 @Wichita St
34 @Houston
41 @Memphis
61 @Xavier

Q2
34 Houston
41 Memphis
58 Tennessee
66 Tulsa
70 SMU
83 @Temple
87 @UConn
118 @UCF
126 @Tulane

Q3
83 Temple
87 UConn
103 Vermont
118 UCF
121 Colgate
137 @USF
134 UNLV
140 Drake
142 Valpo
163 Bowling Green

Q4
216 Illinois St
243 ECU
243 @ECU
333 Alabama A&M

 

[waterhead]

I ran the teamcast again on T-rank. Chalked up losses to WSU and Houston away and one home loss to Houston...and all the rest wins. It came up as first team out. I switched the Houston home game to a win and Uconn to a loss and we were the 2nd last team in.

It's starting to look like 6 losses is not going to get the job done and even 5 is going to be right smack on the bubble line. No margin for error. Of course a good tourney performance could help a tiny bit if we can make the finals.

 

[Queens_NYC]

I ran the teamcast again on T-rank. Chalked up losses to WSU and Houston away and one home loss to Houston...and all the rest wins. It came up as first team out. I switched the Houston home game to a win and Uconn to a loss and we were the 2nd last team in.

It's starting to look like 6 losses is not going to get the job done and even 5 is going to be right smack on the bubble line. No margin for error. Of course a good tourney performance could help a tiny bit if we can make the finals.

I think we need a minimum of 5 Q1 wins to feel good about our at-large chances going into Selection Sunday.

If Wichita and Houston both finish top 30, then we would need to win at least 2 of those 4 regular season games - ideally 3 though.

Memphis is currently 41st, but if they win out at home and steal a few road games, there's a chance we can get a Q1 home win against them.

Temple could definitely flop going forward, but at 83 right now, it's not too crazy to think they could finish top 76 making last night's win a Q1.

If Temple can't come through for us, hopefully UConn can turn it around and rise from 87 to top 76 to make our away match-up Q1.

If we also make it to the AAC tournament semi-finals, we'll likely get Wichita, Memphis, or Houston as a Q1 match-up too.

 

[sedziobs]

I think it's been so long since we've been a true bubble team that we've forgotten how bad those teams are. Here are the resumes for the First Four last year (Q1,Q2,bad losses):

Belmont (2-2,3-1,2)
Temple (2-6,6-2,1)
St Johns (5-7,5-3,2)
Arizona St (3-3,8-3,4)

St Johns is the only team that had more than three Q1 wins, but they also lost 12 games. Arizona St had more bad losses than Q1 wins! I think 13-5 in conference puts us right in with that group if we can get at least two Q1 wins. Our resume would look something like (2-5,6-3,2) going into the AAC tournament.

I think 12-6 (1-6,6-3,2) puts us around the first four out per bracketmatrix:

TCU (3-10,8-4,0)
NC St (3-9,5-1,2)
Indiana (6-9,3-6,1)
Clemson (1-10,6-3,1)

 

[Queens_NYC]

I think it's been so long since we've been a true bubble team that we've forgotten how bad those teams are. Here are the resumes for the First Four last year (Q1,Q2,bad losses):

Belmont (2-2,3-1,2)
Temple (2-6,6-2,1)
St Johns (5-7,5-3,2)
Arizona St (3-3,8-3,4)

St Johns is the only team that had more than three Q1 wins, but they also lost 12 games. Arizona St had more bad losses than Q1 wins! I think 13-5 in conference puts us right in with that group if we can get at least two Q1 wins. Our resume would look something like (2-5,6-3,2) going into the AAC tournament.

I think 12-6 (1-6,6-3,2) puts us around the first four out per bracketmatrix:

TCU (3-10,8-4,0)
NC St (3-9,5-1,2)
Indiana (6-9,3-6,1)
Clemson (1-10,6-3,1)

Thanks for sharing. That does put things into perspective quite a bit and shows that we are very much still in control of our own destiny with the ability to get big wins in winnable match-ups.

I found it amusing Lunardi just added Tulsa to his field of 68 today despite Tulsa being 8 spots below us in NET with 0 Q1 wins (0-2), a worse Q2 record (3-3), and a Q4 loss (although we do have 2 Q3 losses).

 

[Quadri's #1 fan]

That's because Tulsa is winning the Conference at the moment, while UC is not.

 

[justinhub2003]

That's because Tulsa is winning the Conference at the moment, while UC is not.

Yea conference leader always gets a spot

 

[Queens_NYC]

Tulane's blowout loss @ ECU yesterday dropped them 26 spots in NET to 152. Our loss to them has now become our third Q3 loss of the year.

 

[cincyalum2014]

looking at TRank right now and as of this moment we are the last of the first 4 teams out, if we win at home on Saturday we move up to the first of the first 4 teams out, If we win next Thursday we move up to the second first 4 in as a 10 seed. Obviously this is also contingent on what other teams do that are on the bubble, but our margin for error is very slim due to the bad losses from Tulane, Colgate and bowling green. I think we probably lose @ Wichita on Thursday and lose at Houston but we have to win every other game to get in as an at large. The good thing is the bubble is weak this year (including us) but at the same time there are a lot of teams out there in similar situations as us who have better quad 1 wins and no Q3 and Q4 losses.

 

[sedziobs]

Q1
19 @Ohio St
20 Iowa
30 Wichita St
30 @Wichita St
36 @Houston
51 @Memphis
61 @Xavier

Q2
36 Houston
51 Memphis
63 Tennessee
65 Tulsa
73 SMU
93 @Temple
97 @UConn
117 @UCF

Q3
93 Temple
96 Vermont
97 UConn
116 Colgate
117 UCF
131 UNLV
140 Drake
141 Bowling Green
147 Valpo
151 @USF
152 @Tulane
222 @ECU

Q4
214 Illinois St
222 ECU
336 Alabama A&M

 

[cincrulz11]

take care of the home games and all road games quad 2 or worse and i like our chances.

1-6 vs quad 1 wouldn't be ideal, but 8-0 vs quad 2 is strong.


i think if we're in the mix on the bubble we'll be looked upon as favorably because we'll likely have the toughest or at least one of the toughest SOS and non-conference SOS which could help separate us if things are pretty even.

 

[sedziobs]

take care of the home games and all road games quad 2 or worse and i like our chances.

1-6 vs quad 1 wouldn't be ideal, but 8-0 vs quad 2 is strong.

Wichita St at home might not end up as a Q1 game though. They're right on the edge. I can't see us getting any consideration if we have zero Q1 wins. At this point we might need to win at Houston or Wichita.

 

[cincrulz11]

Wichita St at home might not end up as a Q1 game though. They're right on the edge. I can't see us getting any consideration if we have zero Q1 wins. At this point we might need to win at Houston or Wichita.

when you look at the current bubble teams they all have between 1-3 quad 1 wins, but when mixed in when quad 2 not many have a combined winning record vs quad 1 and 2.


It would be pretty unlucky to play a 24 overall SOS and not have a single quad 1 home game. I would imagine most teams get their quad 1 wins at home.

 

[sedziobs]

I would expect several bubble teams to pick up additional Q1 wins over the next month. The comparison is assuming we don't have any. Pretty soon we can start comparing actual resumes.

Our three bad losses will be also be tough to overcome. The first four out on bracketmatrix have three bad losses combined.

 

[Alum2013]

I would expect several bubble teams to pick up additional Q1 wins over the next month. The comparison is assuming we don't have any. Pretty soon we can start comparing actual resumes.

Our three bad losses will be also be tough to overcome. The first four out on bracketmatrix have three bad losses combined.

Hopefully they take into consideration star players being hurt at the beginning of the season like they do them getting hurt at the end of the season.

 

[cincrulz11]

Hopefully they take into consideration star players being hurt at the beginning of the season like they do them getting hurt at the end of the season.

if they do, its probably only for games they don't play in. could be difficult to guesstimate how injured somebody was and how much that changed a game.

 

[Alum2013]

if they do, its probably only for games they don't play in. could be difficult to guesstimate how injured somebody was and how much that changed a game.

I know it. But a brotha can hope