2020 Bracketology

[skyblade]

We really think UCLA could win out? I could easily see them losing 3 of their final 5. They have a hard schedule. I get the are playing better but they still aren’t that good. They have 3 road games. Those alone are going to be hard to win.

Granted I haven't watched them all that much, but they seem pretty good lately. I'd say they are about at UC's level, a neutral court game between UC and UCLA would be a toss up at this point.

They still aren't as good defensively as I'm sure Cronin wants them to be, but they have improved a lot and are much better than their kenpom rating. Offensively they've tracked right around UC's kenpom offensive ranking all season (right now UC is 58 in kenpom offense and UCLA is 63).

They are getting closer and closer to looking like a typical Cronin team. Play tough defense, crash the boards hard and play a lot of iso offense. But they also have more capable scorers than most Cronin teams have had in the past.

I doubt they win out, but 4-1 is not outside the realm of possibility. 3-2 or 2-3 wouldn't surprise me either.

 

[justinhub2003]

We really think UCLA could win out? I could easily see them losing 3 of their final 5. They have a hard schedule. I get the are playing better but they still aren’t that good. They have 3 road games. Those alone are going to be hard to win.

I said no. Just said if they do.


But they are confident and playing good basketball. Would be an interesting bubble development if they did


They are performing pretty well in big games with a 4-5 record against tier 1 teams.

I think they get another tier 1 win against Arizona at home, plus beat Utah on the road and beat Arizona st at home.

I think they are capable of beating USC but probably unlikely and probably won’t beat Colorado in Boulder.

My guess is 3-2 with a chance of 4-1... kenpom predicts 0-5 . But kempom also predicted losses to Washington and @arizona. Their numbers are worse than their current performance.

I mean as of today they are 1 Game back out of first place in the 4th best conference in the league. You have to consider them as a legit threat for a bid stealer

 

[cincyguy13]

Granted I haven't watched them all that much, but they seem pretty good lately. I'd say they are about at UC's level, a neutral court game between UC and UCLA would be a toss up at this point.

They still aren't as good defensively as I'm sure Cronin wants them to be, but they have improved a lot and are much better than their kenpom rating. Offensively they've tracked right around UC's kenpom offensive ranking all season (right now UC is 58 in kenpom offense and UCLA is 63).

They are getting closer and closer to looking like a typical Cronin team. Play tough defense, crash the boards hard and play a lot of iso offense. But they also have more capable scorers than most Cronin teams have had in the past.

I doubt they win out, but 4-1 is not outside the realm of possibility. 3-2 or 2-3 wouldn't surprise me either.

Yeah, I don’t care how good of a coach you are, it’s hard to win on the road. Harder against good teams and even harder when it’s the second time playing them. They also have to play a talented Arizona team at home. I’m guessing Arizona will be looking for revenge. I would say it’s highly unlikely but you never know I guess.

 

[sedziobs]

Guys, this is a Bearcats forum. I get that UCLA is more interesting than most other schools, but let's try to avoid extended discussion in this thread of any one team other than UC. If you really want to analyze UCLA's resume, start a new thread for it.

 

[sedziobs]

I expect we'll still be the 3rd to last team in after the weekend. I think Georgetown will replace Stanford as the last team in. Arkansas and Virginia will swap places with us sandwiched in between.

Today's bracketmatrix update has us included in 70 of 78 brackets. Georgetown and Utah St moved into the field, with Stanford and Arkansas dropping out. Our resume is considerably better than Utah St, who only has four Q1/Q2 wins (and no more regular season opportunities) plus a bad loss. It's nice to have a bit of breathing room if there are bid stealers.

 

[Cataclysmo]

Hey fellas, if this #101 ranked NET team wins out (3 Q1s and 2 Q2 games) they might be a threat to us! Better watch out for that #101 ranked NET team.

 

[sedziobs]

Another bracketmatrix update, and we have now moved above the last four in by number of brackets. We're ahead of Indiana, Purdue, Georgetown, and Utah St. Here's how the bubble resumes look right now (Q1, Q2, bad losses):

11 Virginia (3-3, 4-3, 1)
11 Purdue (3-9, 4-1, 2)
11 Cincinnati (2-5, 6-0, 3)
11 Northern Iowa (1-1, 3-1, 2)
11 Indiana (4-7, 2-2, 0)
12 Georgetown (5-9, 4-1, 0)
12 Utah St (2-4, 2-2, 1)
12 E Tennessee St (2-2, 2-1, 1)
-------------------------
Richmond (2-4, 2-1, 1)
Arkansas (2-5, 2-4, 0)
Stanford (2-5, 2-3, 1)
Miss St (2-6, 3-1, 2)

 

[cincrulz11]

Another bracketmatrix update, and we have now moved above the last four in by number of brackets. We're ahead of Indiana, Purdue, Georgetown, and Utah St. Here's how the bubble resumes look right now (Q1, Q2, bad losses):

11 Virginia (3-3, 4-3, 1)
11 Purdue (3-9, 4-1, 2)
11 Cincinnati (2-5, 6-0, 3)
11 Northern Iowa (1-1, 3-1, 2)
11 Indiana (4-7, 2-2, 0)
12 Georgetown (5-9, 4-1, 0)
12 Utah St (2-4, 2-2, 1)
12 E Tennessee St (2-2, 2-1, 1)
-------------------------
Richmond (2-4, 2-1, 1)
Arkansas (2-5, 2-4, 0)
Stanford (2-5, 2-3, 1)
Miss St (2-6, 3-1, 2)

we've worked ourselves into a pretty good spot for right now. losing 1 regular season game should get us in safely.


but you gotta win the games.

 

[kskenyon4]

Not sure the official word from the committee on this (or their consistency), but I have to assume a hidden measure of some bubble teams will be conference record. Is that a listed criteria? Lots of games left, but no way a 14-4 AAC team is left out of the tournament with our SOS, its too strong of a conference on paper and to the eye.

Just look who is in the play in dayton discussion, UNI with 3 losses in the MVC, Georgetown with a losing BE record 5-7, Indiana 6-8 B10, Utah state 5 losses in the MWC, Richmond 3 A10 losses, the list goes on and on.

 

[cincrulz11]

Not sure the official word from the committee on this (or their consistency), but I have to assume a hidden measure of some bubble teams will be conference record. Is that a listed criteria? Lots of games left, but no way a 14-4 AAC team is left out of the tournament with our SOS, its too strong of a conference on paper and to the eye.

Just look who is in the play in dayton discussion, UNI with 3 losses in the MVC, Georgetown with a losing BE record 5-7, Indiana 6-8 B10, Utah state 5 losses in the MWC, Richmond 3 A10 losses, the list goes on and on.

i dont think conference record plays much into it. teams with losing conference records have made the tournament before.

 

[Queens_NYC]

i dont think conference record plays much into it. teams with losing conference records have made the tournament before.

And on the flip side, Tulsa missed the tourney with a 14-4 AAC record in 14-15. Their final KenPom ranking was 85.

 

[sedziobs]

I don't think a good conference record alone will help. It would hurt to have a conference record more than a couple games under .500 though. Georgetown, Purdue, and Indiana are at risk of doing that despite being in the field as of now. Arkansas is 4-8 in the SEC right now.

 

[sedziobs]

I think a lot of our resume is dependent on other teams.
If Houston drops from top 30 , we lose a tier 1 win.
Walking in to selection Sunday with two tier 1 wins and 3 tier 3 losses, I don’t think you feel great.

If Houston drops from the top 30 but we win out, we would be at least 10-0 in Q2. That's miles ahead of bubble teams, even with 3 bad losses.

Potential for bid stealers is lower than normal this year in my opinion. A bid steal is more likely if there is only one team from a conference projected to be in the field. There are a few borderline cases, but none that are certain. The Mountain West, West Coast, and Atlantic 10 all have multiple teams in the field right now. The Missouri Valley and Southern Conference each have one team, but the leaders of those conferences are on the bubble themselves. Those could still be one bid leagues if Northern Iowa and East Tennessee St stumble.

 

[justinhub2003]

If Houston drops from the top 30 but we win out, we would be at least 10-0 in Q2. That's miles ahead of bubble teams, even with 3 bad losses.

Potential for bid stealers is lower than normal this year in my opinion. A bid steal is more likely if there is only one team from a conference projected to be in the field. There are a few borderline cases, but none that are certain. The Mountain West, West Coast, and Atlantic 10 all have multiple teams in the field right now. The Missouri Valley and Southern Conference each have one team, but the leaders of those conferences are on the bubble themselves. Those could still be one bid leagues if Northern Iowa and East Tennessee St stumble.

Just seem to remember them putting a lot of value on Tier 1 wins last year. Teams surrounding us in the 11 seed range like Virgina, Purdue, Georgetown, Arizona ST, USC, & Florida.


Virgina 3-3 Q1
Purdue 4-10
Gtown 5-9
Arizona State 4-6
USC 2-6
Florida 3-6

Those teams have 4 tier 3 losses COMBINED, we have 3 and yet don't have has many Q1 wins.

Im interested to see how some one like Purdue could get in with now being a 500 basketball team.

I mean there is a scenario where Houston Slips up tonight at Tulsa and maybe again @Memphis and drops out of the top 30 and still beats us at home. That would be the worst scenario considering we'd fall back to having just 1 Q1 win.

 

[cincrulz11]

i mean you're changing your argument now. you said if we win out we still might not make it. 0% chance we win out and don't make it.


yeah if we lose to houston and houston falls apart and all our wins drop a quadrant, nobody is gonna feel safe.

 

[sedziobs]

I mean there is a scenario where Houston Slips up tonight at Tulsa and maybe again @Memphis and drops out of the top 30 and still beats us at home. That would be the worst scenario considering we'd fall back to having just 1 Q1 win.

Yeah, the season's not over. There's still work to do. No one is saying we're safe as of now. Only that we're safe if we win out. I still think we're in with one loss, but maybe sweating a bit on selection Sunday. With other bubble teams struggling so much, I'd say we even have a decent chance with two more losses.

I mean, which of the first four out are going to move ahead of us? Richmond, Utah St, Arkansas, Stanford, and Miss St each have only two Q1 and two Q2 wins. Three of those teams have no Q1 opportunities left. Arkansas is the only one of those teams without a bad loss.

Sure, Q1 wins are more important. But you can't just ignore Q2. That's what we're hanging our hat on this year.

 

[kskenyon4]

Just seem to remember them putting a lot of value on Tier 1 wins last year. Teams surrounding us in the 11 seed range like Virgina, Purdue, Georgetown, Arizona ST, USC, & Florida.


Virgina 3-3 Q1
Purdue 4-10
Gtown 5-9
Arizona State 4-6
USC 2-6
Florida 3-6

Those teams have 4 tier 3 losses COMBINED, we have 3 and yet don't have has many Q1 wins.

Im interested to see how some one like Purdue could get in with now being a 500 basketball team.

I mean there is a scenario where Houston Slips up tonight at Tulsa and maybe again @Memphis and drops out of the top 30 and still beats us at home. That would be the worst scenario considering we'd fall back to having just 1 Q1 win.

All of those teams you mentioned are in, according to bracket matrix. Purdue has 13 losses, Georgetown only 2 Q2 wins, so on so on. UC would need all of these teams to be placed above them, and a few from the terrible list below to make it:

Richmond
Arkansas (4-9 SEC)
VCU
Stanford (0 Q1 wins and 2 Q3 losses)
Mississippi Stae

 

[cincrulz11]

no idea what 4 quad 3 losses does, but i feel sick.

 

[sedziobs]

We fell to the fourth team out in Torvik's bracketology, which I think is the best one that updates in real time. If that's pretty accurate, I think it means we still get in if we win out. We would add a third Q1 win and have somewhere between 7 and 9 Q2 wins. Yeah, the 4 bad losses are ugly and no other team has that many. All of the bubble resumes have holes though. Here are the current resumes per Torvik (Q1, Q2, bad losses):

11 Northern Iowa (1-1, 3-1, 2)
11 Rhode Island (1-4, 5-1, 1)
11 NC St (5-2, 3-4, 3)
11 Virginia (3-3, 4-3, 1)
11 Utah St (2-4, 2-2, 1)
11 USC (2-6, 6-0, 1)
12 Richmond (2-4, 2-0, 2)
12 Georgetown (5-9, 4-2, 0)
--------------------------------
Miss St (2-6, 4-1, 2)
Purdue (5-10, 2-1, 2)
Providence (6-8, 2-0, 4)
Cincinnati (2-5, 6-0, 4)

 

[sedziobs]

I ran some scenarios on Torvik. According to his model, our season basically hinges on the game at Houston. If we win out, we are in. If we lose one more game to Wichita St, USF, or Temple, we are still barely in. If we lose at Houston, we are out. Might not be accurate, but that's what the model shows. Of course, that's before the effect of any bid stealers.