2023-24 roster

[skyblade]

Just from the games I watched him play, he does mix it up on defense a little different, which could be a good thing. I think his shot attempts were often dictated by the offensive scheme, which could be somewhat different under Wes. There would be hope, but I really am hoping the freshmen are amazing. We need Wes' recruits to start turning a corner.

I'm currently putting most of my hope eggs in two baskets. Skillings and Vik.

MAW, Newman and Ody are a solid core of role guys who will bring it every night. But none of them seem likely to make the jump into being a top of the roster guy. What we need is star power and guys who are skilled on both ends.

Skillings has the potential to make that jump, at times he was almost unstoppable getting to the rim. He needs to improve on defense and decision making when teams start doubling him.

Vik we've seen a lot of good things from as well.

Since hope is infinite, I also put a bit into Sage, Reed and Hensley. Maybe Hensley was hurt last year and will be a new man next year. Sage is supposedly pretty skilled on offense, it's bulking up and defense that are concerns. Maybe Reed's shot gets fixed in the off-season.

Reynolds could also be a star, especially in combination with Vik. But until/unless he gets a waiver and loses 30+ pounds I'm not putting much stock in him for next year.

 

[justinhub2003]

I mean I think the plan is ball dominated PG that can create his own shot and get to the rim, but it doesn't seem like he can get them to bite. It's going to be really hard for this team to play offense without one.

I really like Daveon Thomas though. I think he can be really good and isn’t shy about slicing through the lane.

We really need shooting. The best shooter on the team next year is MAW. That’s just not good enough

 

[cincrulz11]

I really like Daveon Thomas though. I think he can be really good and isn’t shy about slicing through the lane.

We really need shooting. The best shooter on the team next year is MAW. That’s just not good enough

and he does bring an athleticism element we haven't had at the guard position, but he's taking a huge step up in competition. from the highlights i saw, he really loves to pull up from midrange so efficiency might be rough.

 

[sedziobs]

Hensley to the portal, so we have two spots open again. We need wings, unless Reynolds won't be eligible.

 

[Queens_NYC]

Hensley to the portal, so we have two spots open again. We need wings, unless Reynolds won't be eligible.

We've been recruiting 3 types of players since Reynolds' commitment:

-A scoring combo guard (Estrada)
-A volume 3-point shooting wing (Lukosius)
-A defensive-minded back-to-the-basket big (Cisse)

Lots to figure out as to why we're recruiting 3 different positions with 2 spots open.

 

[sedziobs]

Simas isn't really a volume shooter. He shot about as many threes per possession as DDJ, but way below Davenport and Nolley. And it concerns me a bit that his percentage was so low as a freshman. Shooting doesn't follow a predictable progression, so while he may end up over 40% like Nolley, he could just as easily regress to under 30% on higher volume.

CJ Fredrick would be similar if we land him. He only shot 32% last year on a per possession volume near Nolley's. At Iowa he shot 47% on lower volume near MAW's level.

 

[TheRealMick]

You take both and ask Skillings, Newman, Vik, and Rayvon to become elite defensive specialist.

 

[Queens_NYC]

There's some smoke on Twitter hinting towards a new commit soon. Possibly CJ?

 

[sedziobs]

CJ Fredrick it is. Fills the SG need in a big way.

 

[sirthought]

Not a bad step. Far from a home run. I wonder if he won't have to sit out because he's already transferred? He's 23 already and has had multiple injuries. But this would have been a big recruit to get out of high school.

 

[sedziobs]

Not a bad step. Far from a home run. I wonder if he won't have to sit out because he's already transferred? He's 23 already and has had multiple injuries. But this would have been a big recruit to get out of high school.

I assume he's graduated by now, so won't have to sit.

Fredrick is an efficient low usage shooter who doesn't turn the ball over. Similar to what Davenport provided on offense but easier to hide bad defense/rebounding at SG. Along with Newman, we'll have a lot of experience at that position with contrasting styles.

Seems like Simas Lukosius is our next target at SF.

 

[skyblade]

I assume he's graduated by now, so won't have to sit.

Fredrick is an efficient low usage shooter who doesn't turn the ball over. Similar to what Davenport provided on offense but easier to hide bad defense/rebounding at SG. Along with Newman, we'll have a lot of experience at that position with contrasting styles.

Seems like Simas Lukosius is our next target at SF.

It really comes down to can he get his shot back, if he can shoot 47% from three like he did at Iowa, he will be a huge piece. If on the other hand he shoots 32% like he did at Kentucky, he won't play many minutes.

Injuries played a role in that shooting decrease. But before he got injured last year he was still only shooting 36%.

Not much besides shooting that he does that really stands out.

 

[sedziobs]

It really comes down to can he get his shot back, if he can shoot 47% from three like he did at Iowa, he will be a huge piece. If on the other hand he shoots 32% like he did at Kentucky, he won't play many minutes.

Injuries played a role in that shooting decrease. But before he got injured last year he was still only shooting 36%.

Not much besides shooting that he does that really stands out.

I'll gladly take 36%. He had a lot of injuries at Iowa too. I think the decrease has more to do with much higher attempts per possession at Kentucky. He was probably taking tougher shots. He didn't really shoot a lot at Iowa.

His ORtg has always been very high, even last year when he wasn't shooting it well. He was second highest on UK after Tshiebwe, and highest on Iowa even with Garza, Wieskamp, and Bohannon on the roster. So he probably makes the right play most of the time and can work with a talented roster.

 

[skyblade]

I'll gladly take 36%. He had a lot of injuries at Iowa too. I think the decrease has more to do with much higher attempts per possession at Kentucky. He was probably taking tougher shots. He didn't really shoot a lot at Iowa.

His ORtg has always been very high, even last year when he wasn't shooting it well. He was second highest on UK after Tshiebwe, and highest on Iowa even with Garza, Wieskamp, and Bohannon on the roster. So he probably makes the right play most of the time and can work with a talented roster.

His assist rate isn't great, but very rarely turns it over. So it seems like he makes the low risk play. He's not a creator. Almost all of his shots are assisted.

36% probably puts him in the role of spark plug off the bench. 47% makes him a starter.

The second question (besides if he can get his shot back) is who is going to create for him. But we're probably going to be wondering who can create until the fall (Skillings and Vik are the most likely in my opinion).

 

[sedziobs]

Right, but if you have guys that know how to move without the ball you don't necessarily have to rely on a creator as much. Based on his high ORtg, he seems to have good offensive awareness. ORtg is a player's share of his team's points per possession, and his high individual rating indicates that he makes the offense better even with low usage.

 

[Queens_NYC]

Huge recruiting win. CJ has an interview with Chad that just came out and he talks about how instrumental his prior relationship with Wes was (from when he transferred from Iowa) when making his decision.

 

[sedziobs]

Simas is in too. I really hope Reynolds is eligible or we're going to have to count on Sage and/or Reed making big improvements.

As of now I see something like

PG: MAW 15 / Jizzle 15 / DayDay 10
SG: Fredrick 20 / Newman 20
SF: Simas 20 / Skillings 20
PF: Vik 10 / Ody 20 / Reed 10
C: Reynolds 20 / Vik 15 / Sage 5

 

[skyblade]

I'm not that convinced by Simas. He brings 3-point shooting as well as some ability to finish inside. Like with Fredrick he's not really a creator.

Still Wes seems to think we lack shooters and has gone out and solved that problem. It seems like the creation is going to come via running the offense rather than from any one person.

It's a bit concerning that we've gotten less athletic with our two transfers. Fredrick and Simas aren't going to provide much rebounding or great defense.

 

[skyblade]

Simas is in too. I really hope Reynolds is eligible or we're going to have to count on Sage and/or Reed making big improvements.

As of now I see something like

PG: MAW 15 / Jizzle 15 / DayDay 10
SG: Fredrick 20 / Newman 20
SF: Simas 20 / Skillings 20
PF: Vik 10 / Ody 20 / Reed 10
C: Reynolds 20 / Vik 15 / Sage 5

I'm not sure Reynolds is getting a waiver, as I said when we signed him all indications are that the NCAA is going to dig in their heels on granting the second waiver to guys who aren't grad transfers. Let's hope he does though as he's the transfer I think is most exciting.

It will be interesting to see how minutes play out. Wes seems to like to really fill out the roster, but it means someone is getting left out. Seems like he has done well at managing that so far, but I wonder if we will get a guy who throws a fit eventually.

We may actually have the depth to press and run this year, we'll see if Wes goes for it. I could see Simas, Reed, Sage and/or Griffith getting pretty much completely left out of the mix this year.

My predictions as of now (assuming Reynolds gets a waiver).

PG: MAW 25/ DaVeon 10/ Jizzle 5
SG: Skillings 15/ Fredrick 25
SF: Newman 20/ Simas 10/ Skillings 10
PF: Vik 15/ Ody 20/ Reed 5
C: Reynolds 25/ Vik 10/ Sage 5.

 

[sedziobs]

I could see Simas, Reed, Sage and/or Griffith getting pretty much completely left out of the mix this year.

Yep, I left Rayvon out of mine. But he could also be a guy who gives us 20 minutes. There's a lot of questions marks on this roster. The biggest is probably PG. I think by conference play there will be separation and the starter will play 25 minutes and one guy will be almost left out. I couldn't say who though.

I'm also not confident about Reynolds getting a waiver since the NCAA specifically stated coaching changes are not a valid reason.

One thing I like about Fredrick is he actually spaces the floor. He stands at NBA range off the ball and can shoot from there. That opens up a lot more room for guys like Skillings and Jizzle to operate.

Also our athleticism hasn't taken a huge hit because DDJ and Davenport weren't great athletes, and Nolley wasn't using his thleticism most of the time.