22-23 Team Discussion

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I still can't believe Wes hasn't offered or spoken with Darryn Jones yet. Kid without a doubt best Ohio prospect since Lebron and OJ. Hometown kid we have get on him soon.
 
Nolley announces tomorrow at 5. BCJ board seems confident.

He would be huge upgrade in length and athleticism on the wing. Nolley can score, but he's not efficient enough to cure our offensive woes by himself. At the risk of jumping the gun, here are potential rotations if Nolley commits and no one leaves.

PG: Phinisee 20 / MAW 15 / DDJ 5
SG: DDJ 20 / Newman 10 / Skillings 10
SF: Nolley 25 / Newman 10 / Reed 5
PF: Davenport 20 / Ody 10 / Hensley 10
C: Ezikpe 20 / Lakhin 15 / Ody 5
 
This is what I would want to see if playing time promises could be disregarded.

PG: DDJ 20 / Phinisee 20
SG: Newman 25 / Skillings 10 / DDJ 5
SF: Nolley 25 / Davenport 10 / Reed 5
PF: Ody 20 / Davenport 10 / Hensley 10
C: Ezikpe 20 / Lakhin 20
 
sedziobs said:
Nolley announces tomorrow at 5. BCJ board seems confident.

He would be huge upgrade in length and athleticism on the wing. Nolley can score, but he's not efficient enough to cure our offensive woes by himself. At the risk of jumping the gun, here are potential rotations if Nolley commits and no one leaves.

PG: Phinisee 20 / MAW 15 / DDJ 5
SG: DDJ 20 / Newman 10 / Skillings 10
SF: Nolley 25 / Newman 10 / Reed 5
PF: Davenport 20 / Ody 10 / Hensley 10
C: Ezikpe 20 / Lakhin 15 / Ody 5
Click to expand...

That would be pretty close to my thinking. But I would put Kalu at 10 and 10 at 4 and 5. Ody and Vik 15 at the 5
 
I expect at one of the three transfer to be a bust, I'm not sure what percentage of transfers pan out, but I think it's no better than 2/3. Fans tend to overhype transfers and underhype returning players and I think that is true of this transfer class.

Ezikpe is going to be a bust. I'm calling it and you can quote this post if I'm wrong. His rebound rate per 40 minutes is worse than Ody's and Vik's, he wasn't the best big man on his team, he had the worst +/- on his team two years in a row, he's a bad defender. As long as Ody/Vik progress as I think they should, they will both be clearly better than him as will Hensley and Davenport.

Phinisee is not a clear starter over MAW either. MAW is slightly better in regards to assists, TO's and shooting percentage, they are pretty equal on defense and Phinisee is a bit stronger. If they are equal, giving MAW more minutes makes sense as he can return for his Covid year (and we really want him to stay as our only veteran guard).

Nolley is the only clear high quality transfer (if we get him). I'd agree that moving DDJ to PG makes the most sense. If that's not an option, I think bringing Nolley off the bench (playing starter minutes) might make the most sense. DDJ and Nolley are the two guys who can score/distribute at a high usage, you want one of them on the court at all times and the best way to accomplish that could be to bring one off the bench.

If you aren't moving DDJ to PG and Newman to SG, Nolley isn't a clear starter over Newman. Newman put up better rebounding numbers and is a better defender. Nolley is better offensively, but if DDJ is playing a lot of 1v1 we may prefer a better defender/rebounder on the court.

My minutes predictions:
PG: MAW 20 / DDJ 10/ Phinisee 10
SG: DDJ 15 / Newman 20 / Skillings 5
SF: Nolley 25 / Hensley 10 / Newman 5
PF: Davenport 20 / Hensley 10 / Ody 5 / Reed 5
C: Lakhin 20 / Ody 15 / Ezikpe 5
 
skyblade said:
I expect at one of the three transfer to be a bust, I'm not sure what percentage of transfers pan out, but I think it's no better than 2/3. Fans tend to overhype transfers and underhype returning players and I think that is true of this transfer class.

Ezikpe is going to be a bust. I'm calling it and you can quote this post if I'm wrong. His rebound rate per 40 minutes is worse than Ody's and Vik's, he wasn't the best big man on his team, he had the worst +/- on his team two years in a row, he's a bad defender. As long as Ody/Vik progress as I think they should, they will both be clearly better than him as will Hensley and Davenport.

Phinisee is not a clear starter over MAW either. MAW is slightly better in regards to assists, TO's and shooting percentage, they are pretty equal on defense and Phinisee is a bit stronger. If they are equal, giving MAW more minutes makes sense as he can return for his Covid year (and we really want him to stay as our only veteran guard).

Nolley is the only clear high quality transfer (if we get him). I'd agree that moving DDJ to PG makes the most sense. If that's not an option, I think bringing Nolley off the bench (playing starter minutes) might make the most sense. DDJ and Nolley are the two guys who can score/distribute at a high usage, you want one of them on the court at all times and the best way to accomplish that could be to bring one off the bench.

If you aren't moving DDJ to PG and Newman to SG, Nolley isn't a clear starter over Newman. Newman put up better rebounding numbers and is a better defender. Nolley is better offensively, but if DDJ is playing a lot of 1v1 we may prefer a better defender/rebounder on the court.

My minutes predictions:
PG: MAW 20 / DDJ 10/ Phinisee 10
SG: DDJ 15 / Newman 20 / Skillings 5
SF: Nolley 25 / Hensley 10 / Newman 5
PF: Davenport 20 / Hensley 10 / Ody 5 / Reed 5
C: Lakhin 20 / Ody 15 / Ezikpe 5
Click to expand...
Despite everything you said, we still end up close to the same place in our predictions. The only guys with more than 5 minutes difference are Phinisee, Hensley, and Ezikpe. I'm not very high on Phinisee, but he will be the only true PG on the roster so I can easily see him playing 20 mpg.

The major difference is Ezikpe, whose minutes you gave to Vik and Hensley. I have no idea if Ezikpe will pan out. Despite his weaknesses, his physical strength and post scoring ability are skills the other bigs struggle with. I'm hopeful that one of Ody/Vik/Ezikpe is able to play the 4 this year so we have better rebounding. Yeah, Ezikpe's rebounding rates are worse than Ody/Vik, but they're still good. It would be nice to have two of those three on the court together since the rest of our team is bad at rebounding.
 
skyblade said:
I expect at one of the three transfer to be a bust, I'm not sure what percentage of transfers pan out, but I think it's no better than 2/3. Fans tend to overhype transfers and underhype returning players and I think that is true of this transfer class.

Ezikpe is going to be a bust. I'm calling it and you can quote this post if I'm wrong. His rebound rate per 40 minutes is worse than Ody's and Vik's, he wasn't the best big man on his team, he had the worst +/- on his team two years in a row, he's a bad defender. As long as Ody/Vik progress as I think they should, they will both be clearly better than him as will Hensley and Davenport.

Phinisee is not a clear starter over MAW either. MAW is slightly better in regards to assists, TO's and shooting percentage, they are pretty equal on defense and Phinisee is a bit stronger. If they are equal, giving MAW more minutes makes sense as he can return for his Covid year (and we really want him to stay as our only veteran guard).

Nolley is the only clear high quality transfer (if we get him). I'd agree that moving DDJ to PG makes the most sense. If that's not an option, I think bringing Nolley off the bench (playing starter minutes) might make the most sense. DDJ and Nolley are the two guys who can score/distribute at a high usage, you want one of them on the court at all times and the best way to accomplish that could be to bring one off the bench.

If you aren't moving DDJ to PG and Newman to SG, Nolley isn't a clear starter over Newman. Newman put up better rebounding numbers and is a better defender. Nolley is better offensively, but if DDJ is playing a lot of 1v1 we may prefer a better defender/rebounder on the court.

My minutes predictions:
PG: MAW 20 / DDJ 10/ Phinisee 10
SG: DDJ 15 / Newman 20 / Skillings 5
SF: Nolley 25 / Hensley 10 / Newman 5
PF: Davenport 20 / Hensley 10 / Ody 5 / Reed 5
C: Lakhin 20 / Ody 15 / Ezikpe 5
Click to expand...

This seems a bit pessimistic to me. If Wes and staff are that bad evaluating portal players (after having some time this year)...then we are in big trouble.

My guess is he has seen what you have and more and has decided Kalu can help in several ways whether he starts or not. If he gets 5 minutes there was no reason to have him for a visit really. I particularly like him as a 2nd big when we need it (at the 4)...he can still pressure the D a little rather than having a 2nd big who can't do anything on offense outside of 5 ft. Then obviously for foul trouble at the 5 is a no brainer since Vik and Ody will both definitely have that problem. 5 minutes for Kalu is WAY WAY low.

Phinisee is being brought in for defense mainly and his offensive numbers will probably improve after competing in B10 and coming to AAC. Also both Matta and Morgan would have some good insight. I don't expect a lot from the PG's unless we can get DDJ there for 10mpg or someone like NOlley. Not sure where to put Rob's minutes.

If Nolley comes he is one of the top 2 players and I am not gonna put one of them on the bench. One of the biggest problems we had was not having enough offense on the court so it was easy to figure out who to guard. He will start at the 3 and I don't care how we have to do it...Newman can start at the 4 for all I care. But Newman will still get 20+ mpg I think. I am backing up both DDJ and Nolley with Newman.
 
My best guess.

PG...Rob 15, MAW 15, DDJ 10
SG...DDJ 15, Newman 10, Skillings 10
SF...Nolley 25, Newman 10, Reed 5
PF...JD 20, Kalu 5-10, Reed 5, Hensley 5-10
C...Vik 15, Ody 15, Kalu 10
 
waterhead said:
This seems a bit pessimistic to me. If Wes and staff are that bad evaluating portal players (after having some time this year)...then we are in big trouble.

My guess is he has seen what you have and more and has decided Kalu can help in several ways whether he starts or not. If he gets 5 minutes there was no reason to have him for a visit really. I particularly like him as a 2nd big when we need it (at the 4)...he can still pressure the D a little rather than having a 2nd big who can't do anything on offense outside of 5 ft. Then obviously for foul trouble at the 5 is a no brainer since Vik and Ody will both definitely have that problem. 5 minutes for Kalu is WAY WAY low.

Phinisee is being brought in for defense mainly and his offensive numbers will probably improve after competing in B10 and coming to AAC. Also both Matta and Morgan would have some good insight. I don't expect a lot from the PG's unless we can get DDJ there for 10mpg or someone like NOlley. Not sure where to put Rob's minutes.

If Nolley comes he is one of the top 2 players and I am not gonna put one of them on the bench. One of the biggest problems we had was not having enough offense on the court so it was easy to figure out who to guard. He will start at the 3 and I don't care how we have to do it...Newman can start at the 4 for all I care. But Newman will still get 20+ mpg I think. I am backing up both DDJ and Nolley with Newman.
Click to expand...

The transfer portal was not that full with high quality big men. My guess is Miller knew we needed at least a backup big man and took what he could get based on his connections. Ezikpe is the backup plan at center in case Ody/Vik don't develop or get injured and possibly at the 4 if Hensley/Reed can't manage as backups. Plus he brings an offensive minded veteran to practice and help the guys out.

He's got positive skills, I just think people are underestimating how poor his defense is. His offense is overestimated a bit as well, he shot a lot of long 2's, which statistically is the worst shot in basketball. Around the rim he shot barely better than Ody and worse than Vik. That percentage is in a lower conference and not being the best big man on the team, it will go down here.

I believe in EvanMiya and that there's a reason he had the worst +/- and worst on/off margin (bottom 3 in both on/off offense and defense) on his team.
 
skyblade said:
The transfer portal was not that full with high quality big men. My guess is Miller knew we needed at least a backup big man and took what he could get based on his connections. Ezikpe is the backup plan at center in case Ody/Vik don't develop or get injured and possibly at the 4 if Hensley/Reed can't manage as backups. Plus he brings an offensive minded veteran to practice and help the guys out.

He's got positive skills, I just think people are underestimating how poor his defense is. His offense is overestimated a bit as well, he shot a lot of long 2's, which statistically is the worst shot in basketball. Around the rim he shot barely better than Ody and worse than Vik. That percentage is in a lower conference and not being the best big man on the team, it will go down here.

I believe in EvanMiya and that there's a reason he had the worst +/- and worst on/off margin (bottom 3 in both on/off offense and defense) on his team.
Click to expand...

Don't want to argue really. Just pointing some things out. As far as plus minus (ACTUAL plus minus) Vik was the worst or 2nd worst on the team last year. We also don't know who will develop between he and Ody. Ody has been playing BB for 3 years now. How much jump do you expect? Vik I would hope to make at least a small jump.

That being said I don't hold out a lot of hope for Hensley either. He can help defend but puts almost no pressure on opposing D.
 
waterhead said:
Don't want to argue really. Just pointing some things out. As far as plus minus (ACTUAL plus minus) Vik was the worst or 2nd worst on the team last year. We also don't know who will develop between he and Ody. Ody has been playing BB for 3 years now. How much jump do you expect? Vik I would hope to make at least a small jump.

That being said I don't hold out a lot of hope for Hensley either. He can help defend but puts almost no pressure on opposing D.
Click to expand...

Vik was actually third worst on the team at least according to EvanMiya, in front of Ody and Hensley and tied with DDJ.

I'm not arguing that Vik, Ody or Hensley were good last year. But when you look at the group of Ezikpe, Vik, Ody and Hensley three clearly have more potential. I don't think Ezikpe was much (if any) better than those three last year, he just got minutes because he played in a worse conference on a bad team. If Ody, Vik and Hensley develop how they should, they should be clearly better than Ezikpe by the fall.

Ezikpe has pretty much peaked, he's got limited athleticism and poor movement for his size. Defensively he reminds me of a shorter Chris Vogt, in that he plays scared of getting beat to the basket and gives up open jumpers/threes. Of course that can be hidden better if he plays the 5 (and Ezikpe's numbers on EvanMiya do look better from the previous year when he played the 5). But teams are going to recognize it and attack him in the pick-and-roll just like the did with Vogt.

Vik, Ody and Hensley hopefully will do a lot of developing and they all have good to great athleticism, movement and size. Ody's numbers on defense and fouls looked better at WF, so I'm hoping his defensive struggles were learning the system and with the off-season he will have the system down. He showed a reasonable amount on offense last year, he just couldn't stay on the floor defensively.

Vik struggled in all areas, but also showed tons of potential. He's got all the physical skills, just needs the game to slow down for him.

Hensley started to show up at the end of the year and started playing well on defense and showed some offense. Chad and Co. have said Hensley looks a lot better in practice, but played scared to make mistakes in games.
 
skyblade said:
I believe in EvanMiya and that there's a reason he had the worst +/- and worst on/off margin (bottom 3 in both on/off offense and defense) on his team.
Click to expand...
I'm not going to make any proclamations about Ezikpe's defense until I see him in action on our team, but I see no reason to assume he's a terrible defender. If you believe in EvanMiya, his DBPR last year was 6.6 (better than Ody and Hensley) and it's projected to be 12.0 this year.

Personally, I think EvanMiya's numbers (and +/-) are way too heavily influenced by team performance and have little to do with an individual's skill. Do we really believe 2020 Chris McNeal would have been the best offensive player on our team last year? Would 2015 Quadri Moore have been the best defender on our 2021 team with Keith and Tari? Were Kyle Washington and Justin Jenifer better offensive players than 2014 Sean Kilpatrick?
 
skyblade said:
Vik was actually third worst on the team at least according to EvanMiya, in front of Ody and Hensley and tied with DDJ.

I'm not arguing that Vik, Ody or Hensley were good last year. But when you look at the group of Ezikpe, Vik, Ody and Hensley three clearly have more potential. I don't think Ezikpe was much (if any) better than those three last year, he just got minutes because he played in a worse conference on a bad team. If Ody, Vik and Hensley develop how they should, they should be clearly better than Ezikpe by the fall.

Ezikpe has pretty much peaked, he's got limited athleticism and poor movement for his size. Defensively he reminds me of a shorter Chris Vogt, in that he plays scared of getting beat to the basket and gives up open jumpers/threes. Of course that can be hidden better if he plays the 5 (and Ezikpe's numbers on EvanMiya do look better from the previous year when he played the 5). But teams are going to recognize it and attack him in the pick-and-roll just like the did with Vogt.

Vik, Ody and Hensley hopefully will do a lot of developing and they all have good to great athleticism, movement and size. Ody's numbers on defense and fouls looked better at WF, so I'm hoping his defensive struggles were learning the system and with the off-season he will have the system down. He showed a reasonable amount on offense last year, he just couldn't stay on the floor defensively.

Vik struggled in all areas, but also showed tons of potential. He's got all the physical skills, just needs the game to slow down for him.

Hensley started to show up at the end of the year and started playing well on defense and showed some offense. Chad and Co. have said Hensley looks a lot better in practice, but played scared to make mistakes in games.
Click to expand...

I am speaking of ACTUAL plus minus not algorithms. Vik was at the bottom. Kalu might be as well but I calculated actual plus minus every few games based on Go Bearcats gamebook which had the actual +/- numbers for every game. Algorithms are interesting but actual numbers are better.

That being said...Wes and company have evaluated all that stuff and game tape and synergy situations. Why bring him in if it did not look good or at least semi advantageous?
 
Chris Vogt had the best EvanMiya +/- on our team in 2020. I guess he was better than Jarron, Keith, and Tre? Kevin Johnson was better than Jacob Evans? There are way too many red flags for that stat to be useful.
 
sedziobs said:
Chris Vogt had the best EvanMiya +/- on our team in 2020. I guess he was better than Jarron, Keith, and Tre? Kevin Johnson was better than Jacob Evans? There are way too many red flags for that stat to be useful.
Click to expand...

I can certainly agree with arguing this number. But plus minus is more a function of the team while a player is on the court. Not how great they are at scoring or defending. It's a team chemistry number I guess.

How well is the team doing while player A is on the court. When considering who Vogt's replacements were I could see how he could be a positive factor.

I think Newman ended up with the best actual plus minus for starters last year and he was hobbled for a stretch of games where he did next to nothing on offense. MAW was doing very well until a late year slide. Perhaps pointing to a decrease on defense while Mike was in game.
 
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