22-23 Team Discussion

[skyblade]

I'm with whoever (sedzjobs maybe) said a while back that it's hard to really understand what Wes is trying to do.

We got worse at three point shooting, worse at penetrating, worse at shot selection and worse at playing above the rim. Ezikpe, Phinisee and Nolley combined last year for 9 dunks. It seems like Wes looked at the areas fans thought we had problems and said, those aren't issues I care about.

All three are good at passing (which may have been Wes's focus), two are upgrades on defense, one (Phinisee) is an upgrade at rebounding, one (Nolley) adds length/athleticism.

It may just be that it's hard to get transfers and you kind of have to take what you can get. Still there's quite a bit of reason for concern and if Phinisee/Ezikpe start I think we are in trouble. I'm sticking to hoping for the 5 relative unknowns (Vik, Ody, Hensley, Skillings and Reed) to be upgrades and Davenport to develop off the dribble. I imagine posting up is going to be hard this year given our lack of threats from 3 (unless one of the unknowns steps up).

 

[waterhead]

I'm with whoever (sedzjobs maybe) said a while back that it's hard to really understand what Wes is trying to do.

We got worse at three point shooting, worse at penetrating, worse at shot selection and worse at playing above the rim. Ezikpe, Phinisee and Nolley combined last year for 9 dunks. It seems like Wes looked at the areas fans thought we had problems and said, those aren't issues I care about.

All three are good at passing (which may have been Wes's focus), two are upgrades on defense, one (Phinisee) is an upgrade at rebounding, one (Nolley) adds length/athleticism.

It may just be that it's hard to get transfers and you kind of have to take what you can get. Still there's quite a bit of reason for concern and if Phinisee/Ezikpe start I think we are in trouble. I'm sticking to hoping for the 5 relative unknowns (Vik, Ody, Hensley, Skillings and Reed) to be upgrades and Davenport to develop off the dribble. I imagine posting up is going to be hard this year given our lack of threats from 3 (unless one of the unknowns steps up).

I think you have to account for how Memphis was using Nolley almost as a post up 4 at times. He does not want to play the 4 because of how he was used and Memphis had some big time dunkers in their lineup giving him less chance to do so. I think we just got better at penetrating and Nolley can play above rim coming down hill rather than post up. 3 pointers not sure how we got worse. McGinnis didn't play. Mason was playing 10 mpg. Koval didn't take many. We gained a volume guy with respectable %.

 

[waterhead]

I think you have to account for how Memphis was using Nolley almost as a post up 4 at times. He does not want to play the 4 because of how he was used and Memphis had some big time dunkers in their lineup giving him less chance to do so. I think we just got better at penetrating and Nolley can play above rim coming down hill rather than post up. 3 pointers not sure how we got worse. McGinnis didn't play. Mason was playing 10 mpg. Koval didn't take many. We gained a volume guy with respectable %.

Nolley is a career 35% on good volume from 3. That is not something I would call a problem given our past production as a team. His frosh year was his lowest year on much higher volume. 32%. Last year 34%. We have seen much worse.

 

[waterhead]

I think you have to account for how Memphis was using Nolley almost as a post up 4 at times. He does not want to play the 4 because of how he was used and Memphis had some big time dunkers in their lineup giving him less chance to do so. I think we just got better at penetrating and Nolley can play above rim coming down hill rather than post up. 3 pointers not sure how we got worse. McGinnis didn't play. Mason was playing 10 mpg. Koval didn't take many. We gained a volume guy with respectable %.

In terms of penetrating we lost Mason, AJ and Mike. Hard to see how Nolley is not an improvement. I imagine Rob can do about as good as Mike. Kalu would be better than Ado or Koval. Mason was not good at it. AJ didn't play. Mike was small.

 

[sedziobs]

I'm with whoever (sedzjobs maybe) said a while back that it's hard to really understand what Wes is trying to do.

cincrulz and I have been saying that since Wes was first mentioned as a candidate. His teams consistently shoot a lot of midrange and don't get to the free throw line, but everything else is all over the place from year to year.

Overall I think we upgraded the roster after the portal movements. I disagree that we got worse at penetrating. Saunders could get to the rim in transition and Mason showed some flashes of creativity, but none of the 5 departing players were giving us much of anything penetrating in the half court. Phinisee and Nolley might not be great either, but I expect them to be better than what we lost. And who knows if Skilings or Reed can give us anything this year.

Phinisee and Ezikpe can create their own shot. That's different than what Saunders and Ado/Koval gave us. I wouldn't jump straight to the negative side if they both start. It could mean that your mobility/pnr defense fears for Ezikpe are overblown, or that a healthy Phinisee is able to be a more efficient creator against lesser competition. We just need to wait and see.

 

[waterhead]

cincrulz and I have been saying that since Wes was first mentioned as a candidate. His teams consistently shoot a lot of midrange and don't get to the free throw line, but everything else is all over the place from year to year.

Overall I think we upgraded the roster after the portal movements. I disagree that we got worse at penetrating. Saunders could get to the rim in transition and Mason showed some flashes of creativity, but none of the 5 departing players were giving us much of anything penetrating in the half court. Phinisee and Nolley might not be great either, but I expect them to be better than what we lost. And who knows if Skilings or Reed can give us anything this year.

Phinisee and Ezikpe can create their own shot. That's different than what Saunders and Ado/Koval gave us. I wouldn't jump straight to the negative side if they both start. It could mean that your mobility/pnr defense fears for Ezikpe are overblown, or that a healthy Phinisee is able to be a more efficient creator against lesser competition. We just need to wait and see.

Nolley is a career 80% FT shooter. Just imagine if he can work from the perimeter. Take away that midrange BS and go to the rack.

Wes seems both a little stubborn but also a bit pliable. He's going to take advantage where he can when he can. He's not as stubborn as some coaches on their own philosophy. He's more of a work in progress IMO but he has to be stubborn on certain things I guess.

 

[sedziobs]

Nolley is a career 80% FT shooter. Just imagine if he can work from the perimeter. Take away that midrange BS and go to the rack.

And Ezikpe was a 74% FT shooter on 129 attempts last year - more than 3 ppg from the stripe. He made more free throws than Ody, Vik, Ado, and Koval combined. It's a big part of being a scorer, and I consider it a form of shot selection. That's why I prefer true shooting to effective field goal percentage because it includes free throws.

 

[skyblade]

It's true that Nolley 5.3 fta per 40 minutes and Ezikpe 6.1 fta per 40 minutes got fouled quite a bit more than anyone on our team (DDJ led us at 3.3 FTA per 40 minutes). So that's a positive.

I'd agree a large factor is going to be if Wes can get shot selection under control. I think Nolley can be really good (though lower volume) if he doesn't take bad shots and tries to get to the rim more.

Nolley is a good shooter, but we lost Mason and Saunders who shot better though on lower volume. I guess that could be a wash since Nolley will probably shoot a similar volume as the of them combined.

I'm not really convinced Phinisee can create his own shot. If he does he's probably going to miss it.

I'll wait to see what happens before getting too negative/positive. But if Phinisee/Ezikpe start I'll definitely be concerned. Hopefully my concerns are wrong if that does happen.

 

[waterhead]

It's true that Nolley 5.3 fta per 40 minutes and Ezikpe 6.1 fta per 40 minutes got fouled quite a bit more than anyone on our team (DDJ led us at 3.3 FTA per 40 minutes). So that's a positive.

I'd agree a large factor is going to be if Wes can get shot selection under control. I think Nolley can be really good (though lower volume) if he doesn't take bad shots and tries to get to the rim more.

Nolley is a good shooter, but we lost Mason and Saunders who shot better though on lower volume. I guess that could be a wash since Nolley will probably shoot a similar volume as the of them combined.

I'm not really convinced Phinisee can create his own shot. If he does he's probably going to miss it.

I'll wait to see what happens before getting too negative/positive. But if Phinisee/Ezikpe start I'll definitely be concerned. Hopefully my concerns are wrong if that does happen.

We put a lot of emphasis on portal players but I do agree with you that it should be tempered. That being said last year we were one of 5 teams to get 3 top 100 portal guys (according to I can't remember which service or tweet). This year we did the same again (again according to which service you use to rank them).

Bottom line is unless we got 3 top 25 dudes we are going to question what the lower ranked guys can do. They just aren't great at #75 etc. And I think that is reasonable. But Nolley is a home run for what we needed with the last spot IMO. He may not shoot a great % from three but it's good enough on volume and he's a 3 level scorer which we lacked. His length also adds another dimension.

Nolley was mired in a talented lineup at Memphis that had multiple egos to feed whether they deserved it or not. His frosh year at VT was insane for a frosh. He will be inserted into a role MUCH different than at Memphis and likely much more like VT. He will put a large amount of pressure on opposing D's which is what we needed for DDJ and JD. Our bigs should help even things out even more as Ado and Koval were not post scorers at all. The two guys we have returning (along with Kalu) will add another dimension to help DDJ and JD.

We likely get better on D as well with the caveat of rim protection. But hopefully we need less of that with better perimeter D.

 

[skyblade]

Yeah, I say pretty much every year that fans overestimate the impact transfers will have and how good they are or will be. As you say there just aren't that many good transfers.

My preferred site for transfer rankings (mostly because I can't find another free site that does it well) is EvanMiya.com, they have Nolley at #21, Phinisee #105 and Ezikpe #140. I said early on the for a guy to have a major impact they probably had to be top 60-80.

Fans don't seem to care that much about stats or what a guy actually did, they look at a transfer, see a shiny new player and think that player will be a major upgrade.

Even Nolley who I'd say is an A+ addition has a number of fans expecting him to be a point-forward, which I can't see him being good at.

Phinisee has fans loving him (and expecting him to start) for his defense, despite the fact that MAW is arguably just as good if not better defensively.

Fans think Ezikpe will be great at rebounding (despite putting up worse rebound percentage numbers than Ody/Lakhin in a worse conference) and defensively (which I doubt).

That's not accounting for the fact that even good transfers can struggle because they are coming into a new environment and learning a new system.

I feel like a pessimist, but on the other hand I'm an optimist on returning players (especially Lakhin, Ody and Hensley) so I guess it evens out. Player development in my opinion is quite a bit more reliable than transfers, but many fans seem to think it's the other way around.

 

[waterhead]

Yeah, I say pretty much every year that fans overestimate the impact transfers will have and how good they are or will be. As you say there just aren't that many good transfers.

My preferred site for transfer rankings (mostly because I can't find another free site that does it well) is EvanMiya.com, they have Nolley at #21, Phinisee #105 and Ezikpe #140. I said early on the for a guy to have a major impact they probably had to be top 60-80.

Fans don't seem to care that much about stats or what a guy actually did, they look at a transfer, see a shiny new player and think that player will be a major upgrade.

Even Nolley who I'd say is an A+ addition has a number of fans expecting him to be a point-forward, which I can't see him being good at.

Phinisee has fans loving him (and expecting him to start) for his defense, despite the fact that MAW is arguably just as good if not better defensively.

Fans think Ezikpe will be great at rebounding (despite putting up worse rebound percentage numbers than Ody/Lakhin in a worse conference) and defensively (which I doubt).

That's not accounting for the fact that even good transfers can struggle because they are coming into a new environment and learning a new system.

I feel like a pessimist, but on the other hand I'm an optimist on returning players (especially Lakhin, Ody and Hensley) so I guess it evens out. Player development in my opinion is quite a bit more reliable than transfers, but many fans seem to think it's the other way around.

I agree with your point about shiny new objects! That pretty well sums it up. However, with Nolley I would not mind seeing point forward for 5 minutes a half (if he can do it) if not DDJ 5 minutes per half. IDC which one really...its just to get length on the wing with DDJ in game.

With Rob all I can say is that most reports are that he is a great defender but his stats may pop about the same as MAW who wasn't tasked with guarding the best of the best. Newman was taking that on. It seems Rob was put on some of the best of the Big10 guards. So Miya stats could be favoring MAW when the situations are different. Not trying to be shiny object guy just reasonable.

As for Kalu he may not have been as good of a rebounder but not bad either. But his block rate was better as well as scoring. So we can't boil it down to rebounding only. Again...not pie in the sky just real numbers here.

My guess is small contributions. Mild improvements. Other than Nolley who I think changes our dynamics quite a bit.

 

[skyblade]

I agree with your point about shiny new objects! That pretty well sums it up. However, with Nolley I would not mind seeing point forward for 5 minutes a half (if he can do it) if not DDJ 5 minutes per half. IDC which one really...its just to get length on the wing with DDJ in game.

With Rob all I can say is that most reports are that he is a great defender but his stats may pop about the same as MAW who wasn't tasked with guarding the best of the best. Newman was taking that on. It seems Rob was put on some of the best of the Big10 guards. So Miya stats could be favoring MAW when the situations are different. Not trying to be shiny object guy just reasonable.

As for Kalu he may not have been as good of a rebounder but not bad either. But his block rate was better as well as scoring. So we can't boil it down to rebounding only. Again...not pie in the sky just real numbers here.

My guess is small contributions. Mild improvements. Other than Nolley who I think changes our dynamics quite a bit.

On the other hand, MAW played over twice as many minutes which meant more fatigue. He was our highest rated defensive guard and a top 1-3 defender on the team by almost every measure on EvanMiya (MAW, Newman and Ado were all very close), though Newman was better until his injury led to him having a really bad 5 or so game stretch.

Rob wasn't their highest rated defensive guard (though he was top 3 in most measures as well) and his lack of minutes meant he could go all out when he was in.

I won't claim MAW is a better defender, but I also don't believe it's possible to claim Phinisee is. Until we see them play (and maybe not even then) it's going to be unclear. My point is you can argue either of them based on different criteria, but many fans have already crowned Phinisee the clear starter based on his defense. This despite MAW being a slightly better shooter, with better assist and TO rates.

Nolley I see as best off the catch-and-shoot (most guys are though). I'm not sure he's a good enough shooter off the dribble to be a threat as a point forward. His TO rate is also uncomfortably high for a point forward. Plus he's too willing to take long jumpers. Maybe he can do it, but I wouldn't bet on it. DDJ on the other hand I think would be better as a PG and the team would probably be better off with him playing there (given that MAW and Phinisee are probably our two worst shooters).

 

[sedziobs]

My proposal of Nolley as point forward isn't because I think it best suits his skills. It's just a way to have DDJ be the nominal PG while playing off ball. It's really a way to get Newman more minutes at the expense of MAW/Phinisee.

 

[skyblade]

My proposal of Nolley as point forward isn't because I think it best suits his skills. It's just a way to have DDJ be the nominal PG while playing off ball. It's really a way to get Newman more minutes at the expense of MAW/Phinisee.

That I support. Whatever it takes to get DDJ to be the (nominal) PG and play Newman/Nolley at the same time. I'd prefer to avoid running out an undersized pair of guards (Phinisee/DDJ) regardless of how good Phinisee is on defense. Great defense can only do so much against a guy who is 5 inches taller.

 

[sedziobs]

That I support. Whatever it takes to get DDJ to be the (nominal) PG and play Newman/Nolley at the same time. I'd prefer to avoid running out an undersized pair of guards (Phinisee/DDJ) regardless of how good Phinisee is on defense. Great defense can only do so much against a guy who is 5 inches taller.

It would also give Skillings/Reed another avenue for playing time if they show they belong on the court. I was mostly disappointed with bringing in Phinisee because it signaled that DDJ was locked in at SG. Nolley could be a way out of that, but I have no idea if Wes would even consider it.

 

[skyblade]

It would also give Skillings/Reed another avenue for playing time if they show they belong on the court. I was mostly disappointed with bringing in Phinisee because it signaled that DDJ was locked in at SG. Nolley could be a way out of that, but I have no idea if Wes would even consider it.

I'm curious how much of a chance Wes will give Skillings and Reed (and maybe even Vik, Ody and Hensley). Last year he pretty much set the rotation at the start of the season and didn't change it a lot. That would seem to favor veterans over young guys if he does the same thing next year.

I want to see young guys (the high ceiling/low floor guys) get minutes and develop. A lot of our veterans are low ceiling/high floor guys and even best case probably aren't going to get us farther than NCAA bubble team next year.

 

[waterhead]

On the other hand, MAW played over twice as many minutes which meant more fatigue. He was our highest rated defensive guard and a top 1-3 defender on the team by almost every measure on EvanMiya (MAW, Newman and Ado were all very close), though Newman was better until his injury led to him having a really bad 5 or so game stretch.

Rob wasn't their highest rated defensive guard (though he was top 3 in most measures as well) and his lack of minutes meant he could go all out when he was in.

I won't claim MAW is a better defender, but I also don't believe it's possible to claim Phinisee is. Until we see them play (and maybe not even then) it's going to be unclear. My point is you can argue either of them based on different criteria, but many fans have already crowned Phinisee the clear starter based on his defense. This despite MAW being a slightly better shooter, with better assist and TO rates.

Nolley I see as best off the catch-and-shoot (most guys are though). I'm not sure he's a good enough shooter off the dribble to be a threat as a point forward. His TO rate is also uncomfortably high for a point forward. Plus he's too willing to take long jumpers. Maybe he can do it, but I wouldn't bet on it. DDJ on the other hand I think would be better as a PG and the team would probably be better off with him playing there (given that MAW and Phinisee are probably our two worst shooters).

I don’t put a lot of stock in D ratings off algorithms. You can’t measure on ball D with stats. Offense is a lot different. D is a crap shoot. I have seen JD out there as a very good defender and that is just not true at all. And we all know that

The IU fanbase thinks Rob is excellent on D and I am guessing our coaches do too.

 

[skyblade]

I don’t put a lot of stock in D ratings off algorithms. You can’t measure on ball D with stats. Offense is a lot different. D is a crap shoot. I have seen JD out there as a very good defender and that is just not true at all. And we all know that

The IU fanbase thinks Rob is excellent on D and I am guessing our coaches do too.

Over on 247 someone posted synergy defense grades and Davenport graded out as good. Of course synergy isn't perfect either (it focuses more on 1v1 defense than team defense), but it's probably the best we've got.

Davenport wasn't great on defense, but I think he was better than a lot of fans think. When he was getting beat (due to mental errors or being undersized) it really stood out and that gets remembered. But he did play solid defense a lot of the time.

I'd like to see the synergy numbers for Phinisee, Ezikpe and Nolley but our local poster who pays for synergy (JustinHub) has pretty much disappeared after Brannen got fired.

 

[skyblade]

I don’t put a lot of stock in D ratings off algorithms. You can’t measure on ball D with stats. Offense is a lot different. D is a crap shoot. I have seen JD out there as a very good defender and that is just not true at all. And we all know that

The IU fanbase thinks Rob is excellent on D and I am guessing our coaches do too.

I think combining EvanMiya which is team based stats (how well does the team play when you are on the floor) and also dependent of how well the guy subbing in/out for you plays and Synergy which is more individual based would be the best way to get a reasonable picture. Unfortunately synergy is paid.

Phinisee is probably excellent at 1v1 defense on the perimeter, pressuring the dribbler which is what fans say. But he's also undersized (and would be playing with an undersized DDJ here), so his interior/switching defense is probably going to be worse than MAW's (who is in turn worse at ball pressure defense).

 

[skyblade]

EvanMiya for the most part matches up with what fans/coaches say. Newman and MAW are two guys who have been praised (by Wes/Brannen) for doing everything right, doing the little things and the things fans don't tend to notice and EvanMiya reflects that.

Ezikpe is the one EvanMiya really gives reason to worry about. EvanMiya is showing red flags all over the place when it comes to Ezikpe. His offensive efficiency was one of the worst on ODU last year, as was his defensive efficiency and he had the worst +/-. Combine that with watching him play some games and that's why I am so negative on him being an impactful player next year.