6 OOC left

[bearcat1518]

The NCAA uses NET now. I'm not convinced any of the teams we've beaten are going to end up Q2 (maybe Vermont). And I'm also not convinced that a bunch of Q3 wins is any better than a bunch of Q4 wins. I seriously doubt the committee ever gets that deep into a resume.

My bad...it is NET now. But that formula still includes SOS. “ The NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, will be the new barometer for the committee, and it will include game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.”

Several of these teams are damn near the Q2 line, and would definitely help the resume if they are.

 

[sedziobs]

Well yeah, a team's NET is obviously affected by their strength of schedule. But our own NET isn't important - our opponents' NET is what determines our quadrant records. We can have a really good SOS by playing all Q3 games and no Q4 games, but that does nothing at all for what matters most - getting quality wins and avoiding bad losses.

If we end up beating Colgate it won't matter - we will have avoided the risk of getting a bad loss against a mid major at home. It's just not a strategy I would feel comfortable with going into each season. There's just not much to be gained and potentially a lot to lose.

Bart Torvik has a Wins Against Bubble category that sort of grades how much a game is worth. We got 0.1 for Drake, 0 for UNLV, and 0.2 for Vermont. We lost 0.8 against Bowling Green, and that was neutral court. A home loss would probably be a full 1.0. Our overall total is -0.5, so we're still trying to dig our way out of a hole. The point is, those games can be landmines. Winning them gives you a very slight boost, but losing can be devastating.

 

[sedziobs]

So we did end up losing to one of the good mid-majors, which means we will have one or two Q3 losses. This doesn't mean the season is over, since there are still plenty of opportunities for quality wins if we can somehow improve our play. Our OOC results are shaping up similar to 2011-2012, the year we went to the sweet sixteen. That season, we lost at home to Presbyterian (Q4) and Marshall (Q3). We picked up a couple of Q2 wins over Oklahoma and Georgia. If Vermont ends up top 75 and we win one of the next two games, we'll arguably have a better OOC than 2011-2012.

Looking at 2019's First Four participants, three of them had multiple Q3 losses. We still have a chance to make the tournament.

 

[sedziobs]

Bart Torvik has a Wins Against Bubble category that sort of grades how much a game is worth. We got 0.1 for Drake, 0 for UNLV, and 0.2 for Vermont. We lost 0.8 against Bowling Green, and that was neutral court. A home loss would probably be a full 1.0. Our overall total is -0.5, so we're still trying to dig our way out of a hole. The point is, those games can be landmines. Winning them gives you a very slight boost, but losing can be devastating.

We lost 0.9 WAB against Colgate. So for the four good mid-majors we faced, we ended up with a total of -0.6. Our season total is now -1.4.

 

[cincrulz11]

So we did end up losing to one of the good mid-majors, which means we will have one or two Q3 losses. This doesn't mean the season is over, since there are still plenty of opportunities for quality wins if we can somehow improve our play. Our OOC results are shaping up similar to 2011-2012, the year we went to the sweet sixteen. That season, we lost at home to Presbyterian (Q4) and Marshall (Q3). We picked up a couple of Q2 wins over Oklahoma and Georgia. If Vermont ends up top 75 and we win one of the next two games, we'll arguably have a better OOC than 2011-2012.

Looking at 2019's First Four participants, three of them had multiple Q3 losses. We still have a chance to make the tournament.

I guess I was underestimating the potential of more utter collapses late in the game. Really thought we'd get past them at some point.



Nice to see the season isn't completely over. Bubble has seemed really weak for the past number of years, but the play has to turn around.