Hahahaha! 10 points on that!!
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Hahahaha! 10 points on that!!
I think positionless BB is the overall point here. And our last HC was all about that. And I also agree it's where I want the program to go.
But we have to be reasonable and get the guards who can play PG at times and maybe up to the 3-4 position. That is perfectly fine. Our bigs we would like to be able to play the 5 down to 3-4 in a perfect scenario.
1-5 is not happening ever for a 13 man rotation at UC or probably anywhere for that matter. And even if we get a few who can man several positions...we will need the role players who cannot.
But we have to be reasonable and get the guards who can play PG at times and maybe up to the 3-4 position. That is perfectly fine. Our bigs we would like to be able to play the 5 down to 3-4 in a perfect scenario.
1-5 is not happening ever for a 13 man rotation at UC or probably anywhere for that matter. And even if we get a few who can man several positions...we will need the role players who cannot.
Attached are Evan Miya's ratings for last year's team. MAW and Mason are rated higher than Davenport because of JD's poor defense. Mikey gets an especially bad defensive rating. John Newman will instantly become our best player according to this metric. Last year he had a 34.1 overall BPR (-8.6 offense, 42.7 defense). The previous year he was 37.9 overall (1.5 offense, 36.3 defense).
I think BPR weighs team performance a little too heavily, but this could be a good tool for evaluating defense instead of relying on proxy stats like steal + block and foul rates. It incorporates individual stats, plus/minus, team efficiency, and leverage (stats when the game is a blowout don't count as much).
I think BPR weighs team performance a little too heavily, but this could be a good tool for evaluating defense instead of relying on proxy stats like steal + block and foul rates. It incorporates individual stats, plus/minus, team efficiency, and leverage (stats when the game is a blowout don't count as much).
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cincrulz11
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Harvey's numbers really surprised me on defense.
The big thing with these numbers here are why I don't think Davenport can be a 4. He simply cannot defend that position. He was our best offensive player, but overall 5th best because of his defense?
Also I don't know what I think about Saunder's defensive rating either.
Diarra and Rob Banks the only ones negative on offense and defense.
The big thing with these numbers here are why I don't think Davenport can be a 4. He simply cannot defend that position. He was our best offensive player, but overall 5th best because of his defense?
Also I don't know what I think about Saunder's defensive rating either.
Diarra and Rob Banks the only ones negative on offense and defense.
TheRealMick
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Davenport absolutely can’t play 4, Tari barely could. It’s no surprise Newman would be our highest rated player by this metric. He’s our highest rated recruit by far
I don't think Davenport can really guard the 3 either because he isn't very quick. He's best suited as a hybrid 3/4 that we can play to matchups. We can hide him against average stretch 4s or wings who aren't slashers.
The nice thing is JD, Saunders, and Mason are all young and should be able to improve their defense under Wes.
The nice thing is JD, Saunders, and Mason are all young and should be able to improve their defense under Wes.
Interesting stuff...thanks for sharing!
justinhub2003
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I’ll post Synergy numbers later to compare and see how much they differ
A comparison between (Synergy) defensive grades posted by Justin and Evan Miya's [BPR] defensive ratings:
MAW: (82% Very Good) [17.7 Good]
JD: (68% Very Good) [-4.7 Average]
DDJ: (80% Very Good) [5.6 Above Average]
Madsen: (34% Average) [6.6 Above Average]
Mikey: (29% Below Average) [-14.6 Below Average]
Hensley: (34% Average) [6.3 Above Average]
Koval: (64% Good) [16.0 Good]
Newman soph: (84% Excellent) [36.3 Excellent]
I made up my own categories for BPR with -5 to 5 being average, 5-15 above average, 15-25 good, 25-35 very good, and 35+ excellent. I might even add an elite category for the 18 players across the country who had a rating of 45+ (Gary Clark achieved it in his junior and senior seasons, as did Caupain, Evans, and Brooks in their final seasons as Bearcats). There were 5 players worse than -45. I'll take suggestions on what to call that category.
There is agreement on most players. The only two players with more than one category of separation are DeJulius and Davenport, with a three category difference for Davenport. Synergy is higher than BPR on both of them.
MAW: (82% Very Good) [17.7 Good]
JD: (68% Very Good) [-4.7 Average]
DDJ: (80% Very Good) [5.6 Above Average]
Madsen: (34% Average) [6.6 Above Average]
Mikey: (29% Below Average) [-14.6 Below Average]
Hensley: (34% Average) [6.3 Above Average]
Koval: (64% Good) [16.0 Good]
Newman soph: (84% Excellent) [36.3 Excellent]
I made up my own categories for BPR with -5 to 5 being average, 5-15 above average, 15-25 good, 25-35 very good, and 35+ excellent. I might even add an elite category for the 18 players across the country who had a rating of 45+ (Gary Clark achieved it in his junior and senior seasons, as did Caupain, Evans, and Brooks in their final seasons as Bearcats). There were 5 players worse than -45. I'll take suggestions on what to call that category.
There is agreement on most players. The only two players with more than one category of separation are DeJulius and Davenport, with a three category difference for Davenport. Synergy is higher than BPR on both of them.
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In full disclosure. The best bigs ACTUAL plus minus were Koval and Ody. Ado and Vik were way down the list.
Guys like Newman and MAW (for most of the year for MAW...he fell off) were doing very well and among the best of the starters. Why did we bring in Phinisee? Because defense seems to be a big factor in +/-.
JD and DDJ were hanging in around average but considering usage and efficiency it makes sense. And considering defense it makes sense.
I don't know where to get ACTUAL plus minus for other teams but GoBearcats has it in the Gamebooks for every game if you want to investigate.
EvanMiya's +/- should be "actual". I have no reason to believe they are not. I don't see a season total on GoBearcats and they don't have Gamebooks for every game so it's impossible to do manually (unless you want to go through the play-by-play of every game). The "algorithm" should just be parsing play-by-play data.
Thanks for pointing the Gamebooks out though. There were two games I specifically remember DDJ being iso'd and us not doing anything about it - @Temple and USF. DDJ had +/- of -9 and -10 in those games, worst on the team. His defense as a SG is a serious concern for me. +/- can be useful if you have a specific case where an individual performance was notewrothy.
Here is just one example of a gamebook with actual plus minus but they were there for every game. And I do not think Evan Miya is actual.
https://gobearcats.com/documents/2021/11/13/UC_vs_Georgia_Book.PDF
It's the last column
Sometimes you have to get creative to find the plus minus. At times it's listed under gamebook and others under recap or boxscore. But they were all available somewhere to find for every game
In certain instances I had to click on what looked like a recap of another game to find the box score for the game I was looking for. But I eventually found them all.
You can find gamebook right on the schedule for a lot of games in the results section.
but for instance the Jan 30 game against ECU does not show gamebook on the results. But if you click the link for recap you can find a link in red above the next game against Memphis and it says Gamebook. That was the gamebook for ECU not Memphis.
Poor planning from UC but it's all there.
Thanks, this is an interesting resource I hadn't looked into before. I may have to total these for myself at some point. They even have +/- broken out by half. Against Tulsa, Saunders had a +/- of -14 in only 7 first half minutes
It's the only free resource of actual plus minus I could put my hands on. I did do a spreadsheet for about 3/4 of the year. Then I got lazy.
Newman was always at the top for starters but slid after his injury a bit and came back. MAW was 2nd for a long time but was sliding big time at the end.
Koval and Ody were pretty high as part timer bigs.
Vik was not doing well which surprised me. Ado was low on the list probably because he added no offense.
The rest of the guys were pretty much in line with each other but obviously JD and DDJ were high usage guys and presented some defensive problems.
I did not do a full season but there were some surprises to say the least especially in short spurts or individual games as you have noticed already.
Thanks, this is an interesting resource I hadn't looked into before. I may have to total these for myself at some point. They even have +/- broken out by half. Against Tulsa, Saunders had a +/- of -14 in only 7 first half minutes
It's crazy. The individual +/- for games was as large as 20 or 30 points between certain players. But the overall yearly average is what I was interested in.
