Around the AAC

[Thegreatone]

The conference is much improved.


Unfortunately it didn’t show that improvement in the non conference.

This may end up being a 2-3 bid league.

Houston and Memphis aren’t even close to locks. Temple is pretty much done, SMU played a weak schedule and then lost to ECU.

I see no evidence that the conference is much improved. This is the worst I can remember the top of the league ever being. Memphis is NIT level. Wichita is a 7-10 seed. Houston is bubble.

There is absolutely no reason we can't win this league. I could see it becoming a 1 or 2 bid league this year to be honest.

People have way over-hyped Memphis. We are going to beat them Thursday IMO.

 

[justinhub2003]

I see no evidence that the conference is much improved. This is the worst I can remember the top of the league ever being. Memphis is NIT level. Wichita is a 7-10 seed. Houston is bubble.

There is absolutely no reason we can't win this league. I could see it becoming a 1 or 2 bid league this year to be honest.

People have way over-hyped Memphis. We are going to beat them Thursday IMO.

Bottom is much improved

 

[cincyalum2014]

Uconns 3 point big man Tyler Polley out for season with ACL tear

 

[cincyalum2014]

I see no evidence that the conference is much improved. This is the worst I can remember the top of the league ever being. Memphis is NIT level. Wichita is a 7-10 seed. Houston is bubble.

There is absolutely no reason we can't win this league. I could see it becoming a 1 or 2 bid league this year to be honest.

People have way over-hyped Memphis. We are going to beat them Thursday IMO.

the league is much more balanced this year, the last few years have been very top heavy with UC, Houston, Wichita State and SMU. I don't think that really matters but I see no team in this conference that is hands down that much better than us that we cant beat.

 

[justinhub2003]

Just because Memphis doesn’t look great doesn’t mean we should walk in to a hostile environment in Memphis with 18k fans and expect to win.

This would be biggest win of the John Brannen era. But also will be the most talents he’s coached against and probably the largest crowd.


Will be tough.

 

[itsamemario]

Washington is a heck of a team. I was at the Washington Baylor game earlier this year

time will tell if they are still the real deal now that they lose 5 assists a game and a 40% 3 point shooter in Quade Green

 

[waterhead]

Still like that 12-6 (in conference) number Sedziobs. One way or another that is likely going to mean we get some Q1 and Q2 wins. Maybe just enough to sneak in.

I DEFINITELY think 13-5 is in and 11-7 is out.

12-6 is the predicted 2nd place finisher (Memphis) in conference on T-rank. We are predicted T-3 with Houston at 11-7. WSU is predicted 15-3. If we can steal one on the road Thursday we might have a decent chance at 2nd in conference. I don't see us (right now) having a shot at 1st place.

 

[waterhead]

Some interesting stats for UC around the league (so far).

Vogt....#1 FG %, 4th scoring, #4 blocks,
Scott...#3 RPG, #4 FG%, #6 assists, #1 steals
Jarron....#7 FG%, #2 assists, #3 3pt FG%,


Jarron and Tre are averaging almost 11 assists per game so far in conference. We have 3 of the top 7 in FG%.

 

[justinhub2003]

Some interesting stats for UC around the league (so far).

Vogt....#1 FG %, 4th scoring, #4 blocks,
Scott...#3 RPG, #4 FG%, #6 assists, #1 steals
Jarron....#7 FG%, #2 assists, #3 3pt FG%,


Jarron and Tre are averaging almost 11 assists per game so far in conference. We have 3 of the top 7 in FG%.

We are playing much better

But caveat is that we’ve played the 11th toughest conference slate so far.

We’ve played 3 of the 4 worst defense and 3 of the 4 worst offenses.

Thursday is a chance to do it against a good team, in what will be a sold out and insanely tough environment


Let’s just get it done

 

[waterhead]

We are playing much better

But caveat is that we’ve played the 11th toughest conference slate so far.

We’ve played 3 of the 4 worst defense and 3 of the 4 worst offenses.

Thursday is a chance to do it against a good team, in what will be a sold out and insanely tough environment


Let’s just get it done

I can agree the slate has been easy. But we are also covering spreads outside of Tulane. It gets a bit murky when we have to battle 40 minutes in very close games. I don't have a high level of confidence in our toughness just yet but it seems to be going the right direction. 1 and 2 game samples are not enough to get me bought in. Memphis win would go a long way for optimism.

 

[waterhead]

We are playing much better

But caveat is that we’ve played the 11th toughest conference slate so far.

We’ve played 3 of the 4 worst defense and 3 of the 4 worst offenses.

Thursday is a chance to do it against a good team, in what will be a sold out and insanely tough environment


Let’s just get it done

For some reason I like to look at the "game score" graph on T-rank. It's basically a graph that shows the results vs predictions in games. We started off the year with 3 well above avg games when most teams didn't have any type of consistency and we only had 30% offense installed. Then we had 6 of our worst 7 games of the year. Likely a result of too much information and not knowing exactly where our players should be. Since then we lost to Iowa and Tulane but we had a reasonable chance at winning both. But the rest of our games since the melt down period have been in the 90th percentile. 4 of 6. And even Iowa and Tulane were above our worst 6 games.

So the trend is pointing up. Players are learning (Diara is a good example and MAW) but the coach is learning as well (Cumberland running point as an example). I like the trajectory but I am by no means sold. CJB is figuring it out and the players are starting to get comfortable. Is it too late? Can we keep the trajectory going up? If we can play Memphis to the wire I will be more confident...if we win I will start talking about the dance.

 

[sedziobs]

For some reason I like to look at the "game score" graph on T-rank. It's basically a graph that shows the results vs predictions in games.

You've got the right idea, but the graph shows results as a rankings percentile. A perfectly average team would be 50. For example, our game score against Bowling Green was 51. Obviously we didn't outperform the prediction in that game. We played like a team ranked #175. Even worse, against Illinois St we played like a team ranked #226. Against Drake, UConn, and Tulsa we played like a top 10 team.

It is pretty cool, and all of your points are still valid.

 

[waterhead]

You've got the right idea, but the graph shows results as a rankings percentile. A perfectly average team would be 50. For example, our game score against Bowling Green was 51. Obviously we didn't outperform the prediction in that game. We played like a team ranked #175. Even worse, against Illinois St we played like a team ranked #226. Against Drake, UConn, and Tulsa we played like a top 10 team.

It is pretty cool, and all of your points are still valid.

Thanks for explaining that better. I understand the graph but I described it the wrong way. I like seeing us up in that 90th percentile with some consistency

 

[TheLongHaul]

Just because Memphis doesn’t look great doesn’t mean we should walk in to a hostile environment in Memphis with 18k fans and expect to win.

This would be biggest win of the John Brannen era. But also will be the most talents he’s coached against and probably the largest crowd.


Will be tough.

I'd argue OSU is more talented than a Wise-less Memphis. Attendance I would think would be pretty similar, with Memphis probably edging them out.

 

[Queens_NYC]

UCF gets off to a big first half lead @Tulane and holds on in the second half to win 74-55. The unpredictability of the conference this year is quite fascinating.

 

[Lawrugby]

So Temple just beat 16 Withita State and Tulsa looks pretty for real ties for first with us Houston and Witchita State. Looks like the American will be beating each other up this year which probably will hurt our at large bids but so be it. Parity is a good thing as far as the individual games go. It looks like we will be lucky to get three teams in if things keep going this way with “upsets” being more the rule than the exception. But if we send three and one goes deep that would be better than sending 5 who fizz in the second round.

 

[Jon Rycek]

12-6 is the predicted 2nd place finisher (Memphis) in conference on T-rank. We are predicted T-3 with Houston at 11-7. WSU is predicted 15-3. If we can steal one on the road Thursday we might have a decent chance at 2nd in conference. I don't see us (right now) having a shot at 1st place.

It’s hard to always take those predictions too seriously. Obviously there is a lot of data that goes into them, but as far as I know it’s a generic average. It’s no weighted to a teams current trends, as it the past five games mean more towards the rankings than the first five games, or whatever. So teams trending upwards, which I think we played our two best halves of basketball in the second halves against UCF and Tulsa. Would love to see them stringing 40 minutes of that play. Playing like that, we stand a very good chance against any team and our conference, and probably most teams in all college basketball this year. Still a good ways from that, but certainly possible. I really think they’re starting to mesh better and better. Easy to forget how hard it is for all these new guys to get on the same page. Look how difficult it is even with a bunch of one and done guys like at UK. Obviously they’ve got a ton of talent and they still go through plenty of growing pains. Anyway, I think we got a good shot against Memphis. First place will IMO be hard to get away from Wichita, from what I’ve seen they’re pretty damn good this year. But I don’t think second is a reach, and with some pretty decent teams in our league, really not any terrible ones. That second place coupled with a couple wins in the conference tournament, might be all we need to get in this year.

 

[cincyguy13]

I still think WSU is a year away from being really good. They could still win the league but I think Houston will win it again. If we can not. Houston plays hard every night and are going to be in every game.

 

[waterhead]

It’s hard to always take those predictions too seriously. Obviously there is a lot of data that goes into them, but as far as I know it’s a generic average. It’s no weighted to a teams current trends, as it the past five games mean more towards the rankings than the first five games, or whatever. So teams trending upwards, which I think we played our two best halves of basketball in the second halves against UCF and Tulsa. Would love to see them stringing 40 minutes of that play. Playing like that, we stand a very good chance against any team and our conference, and probably most teams in all college basketball this year. Still a good ways from that, but certainly possible. I really think they’re starting to mesh better and better. Easy to forget how hard it is for all these new guys to get on the same page. Look how difficult it is even with a bunch of one and done guys like at UK. Obviously they’ve got a ton of talent and they still go through plenty of growing pains. Anyway, I think we got a good shot against Memphis. First place will IMO be hard to get away from Wichita, from what I’ve seen they’re pretty damn good this year. But I don’t think second is a reach, and with some pretty decent teams in our league, really not any terrible ones. That second place coupled with a couple wins in the conference tournament, might be all we need to get in this year.

They can change after any game. WSU went from predicted 15-3 to 13-5 after a single game. It's not an exact science just a barometer. We are playing much better as Brannen figures out the right combinations on the court and continues to sharpen up the roles. If we keep improving we have a shot to still make some noise this year. I still expect a bump here and there but not as many as early season.

 

[PSmitty23]

Tulsa beat Memphis 80-40?! What the hell is that all about? WOW