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jacobkdoyle said:
Anyone we need to root against today?
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Tonight's bubble games I'm looking at:

PLEASE LOSE
LSU vs Tenn (@LSU) LSU's RPI is only 3 spot ahead of us, they have 4 top 50 wins and 3 loses above 150 RPI. Tenn RPI is 104 so this would put them firmly on the bubble with a loss.

Richmond vs UMASS. Richmond could win out to A10 final and sneak in, might as well nip that right now.

Pitt vs Miami. Pitt is really reeling, a lose here all but eliminates them.

Purdue/Mich St - I don't even know who we need to lose, but the loser is in trouble. Honestly Mich St resume is unimpressive, 2 top 50 wins and a loss to Texas Southern at home...

St Johns vs Marquette - Marquette's RPI is 148 so this would be hurtful to St Johns

UCLA vs USC. If UCLA loses, its over except an auto bid.

Illinois vs Nebraska. Any Nebraska win helps UC and an Illinois loss would be huge.

Oregon vs Oregon St - Oregon firmly on the bubble, any loss helps move them down
 
kskenyon4 said:
Tonight's bubble games I'm looking at:

PLEASE LOSE
LSU vs Tenn (@LSU) LSU's RPI is only 3 spot ahead of us, they have 4 top 50 wins and 3 loses above 150 RPI. Tenn RPI is 104 so this would put them firmly on the bubble with a loss.

Richmond vs UMASS. Richmond could win out to A10 final and sneak in, might as well nip that right now.

Pitt vs Miami. Pitt is really reeling, a lose here all but eliminates them.

Purdue/Mich St - I don't even know who we need to lose, but the loser is in trouble. Honestly Mich St resume is unimpressive, 2 top 50 wins and a loss to Texas Southern at home...

St Johns vs Marquette - Marquette's RPI is 148 so this would be hurtful to St Johns

UCLA vs USC. If UCLA loses, its over except an auto bid.

Illinois vs Nebraska. Any Nebraska win helps UC and an Illinois loss would be huge.

Oregon vs Oregon St - Oregon firmly on the bubble, any loss helps move them down
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No Angel Rodriguez for Miami. Out with wrist injury
 
coachpipe said:
No Angel Rodriguez for Miami. Out with wrist injury
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Thats big.

Other ways UC's RPI can improve regardless of their game.

UCF beat USF.
Stony Brook beat Binghampton
Morehead beat SE Miss St
St Francis beat Mt St Marys
Wagner beat Robert Morris
SDSU beat UNLV
 
Seton Hall is leading Providence by 8 at the half. The Hall is a team that could play their way back onto the bubble by winning this game and @Georgetown to end the season.
 
Louisville falls at home to Notre Dame. Barring a big run in the ACC tournament (or beating Virginia on Sat), Louisville is probably staring at a 6 or 7 seed.
 
Bearcat_NTS said:
They were probably a step above the bubble before the game, now they fall right back into the mix.
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Why is Mich St a 7 seed on a lot of brackets? They have 2 good wins and a couple suspect loses. Looks a lot more like a 9 seed to me and they could lose to purdue tonight at home.

They're 6-8 against the top 100, 2-6 against the top 50, I don't understand.
 
Games to keep an eye on tonight:


Wisconsin @ Minnesota 7:00pm ESPN

  • Gophers have an outside shot at getting back into the bubble discussion. Wisconsin in the hunt for the fourth #1 seed cannot drop this one.

Temple @ ECU 7:00pm ESPNU

  • Temple cannot afford to lose this one and ECU has been competitive at home against the top half of the league. A loss clinches the #3 seed for Cincinnati.

Cal @ Arizona 9:00pm ESPN

  • Probably won't be too close, but Arizona needs it to stay in the mix for the fourth #1 seed

VCU @ Davidson 9:00pm ESPNU

  • Davidson is on the bubble and this win is highly critical for them. VCU is dropping fast towards the 8/9 game where no one wants to be

Memphis @ Connecticut 9:00pm ESPN2
  • I actually think UConn could get in as an at large depending on what they do in the AAC tournament, so this is obviously a must win. They have top 50 RPI wins over Tulsa, Cincinnati, SMU, and Dayton (neutral) which is a good start. UConn will be in the 4/5 game if they win regardless.

Stanford @ Arizona State 11:00pm FoxSports1
  • Stanford is in the next four out and needs to win this game to stay in that position
 
Bearcat_NTS said:
I actually think UConn could get in as an at large depending on what they do in the AAC tournament, so this is obviously a must win. They have top 50 RPI wins over Tulsa, Cincinnati, SMU, and Dayton (neutral) which is a good start.
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Problem for them is they have 5 wins against the top 173 (according to espn's rpi number). Espn has their current RPI at 69. They'd need 2 huge wins I would have to imagine, so they might as well win the entire tournament. 5-10 against the top 150 isn't a good place to start.

edit: even according to kenpom 12 of their 17 wins are against #165 or worse.
 
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cincrulz11 said:
Problem for them is they have 5 wins against the top 173 (according to espn's rpi number). Espn has their current RPI at 69. They'd need 2 huge wins I would have to imagine, so they might as well win the entire tournament. 5-10 against the top 150 isn't a good place to start.

edit: even according to kenpom 12 of their 17 wins are against #165 or worse.
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They definitely have a ton of work to do. However if they beat Memphis (who might fall out of the top 100 but could stay in), Temple x2, SMU and then face and lose to Cincinnati (best case for UConn in terms of who they would face) in the title game. I think it would be very interesting that could give them 4 more top 100 wins.

Then again I am the same guy that thinks Kansas State should be given much more consideration than they have been based on their resume...
 
Bearcat_NTS said:
They definitely have a ton of work to do. However if they beat Memphis (who might fall out of the top 100 but could stay in), Temple x2, SMU and then face and lose to Cincinnati (best case for UConn in terms of who they would face) in the title game. I think it would be very interesting that could give them 4 more top 100 wins.

Then again I am the same guy that thinks Kansas State should be given much more consideration than they have been based on their resume...
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What!? KState? Oh man, I dunno. They've had stretches where they lost 3 of 4, 3 straight, and 7 out of 8. And if they don't win @Texas they'll have a losing record overall.
 
jacobkdoyle said:
What!? KState? Oh man, I dunno. They've had stretches where they lost 3 of 4, 3 straight, and 7 out of 8. And if they don't win @Texas they'll have a losing record overall.
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I would have them as last the last team in the next four out (meaning 8 away from getting in). Marcus Foster was suspended for a few of those bad losses which the committee will consider. I mean they likely will end up with the same number of wins over tournament teams as Gonzaga and Wichita State combined. Wins over Kansas (2 seed), Iowa State (3 seed), Oklahoma (4 seed), @Oklahoma (4 seed), Baylor (4 seed), Oklahoma State (9 seed), neutral site vs Texas A&M (10 seed), and neutral site vs Purdue (11 seed). I mean FIVE wins over protected seeds is hard to ignore. We all know bubble teams can lose to bad teams, the tournament is about winning against good teams and they've shown they can do that. Let's say they win @Texas and then beat Texas Tech, Iowa State and Oklahoma before losing to Kansas in the final. That would put them at 19-16 with 10 of the 19 wins being over tournament teams. They certain are an interesting case for the committee.
 
I'm not really sure how are record compares to smu's last year but I gotta say I am worried about getting in as an at large being in the American I don't know how much the committee respects our conference. I didn't even think it was possible for Smu not to be in last year but some how they were left out so I'm not sold that we have clinched a birth to the big dance.
 
Bearcat_NTS said:
I would have them as last the last team in the next four out (meaning 8 away from getting in). Marcus Foster was suspended for a few of those bad losses which the committee will consider. I mean they likely will end up with the same number of wins over tournament teams as Gonzaga and Wichita State combined. Wins over Kansas (2 seed), Iowa State (3 seed), Oklahoma (4 seed), @Oklahoma (4 seed), Baylor (4 seed), Oklahoma State (9 seed), neutral site vs Texas A&M (10 seed), and neutral site vs Purdue (11 seed). I mean FIVE wins over protected seeds is hard to ignore. We all know bubble teams can lose to bad teams, the tournament is about winning against good teams and they've shown they can do that. Let's say they win @Texas and then beat Texas Tech, Iowa State and Oklahoma before losing to Kansas in the final. That would put them at 19-16 with 10 of the 19 wins being over tournament teams. They certain are an interesting case for the committee.
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IF they go 19-16 I can see them getting in the convo. Nino Williams getting hurt early in the West Va game killed them also. He was playing out of his mind before that. Side note on the Foster and Harris suspension...Bruce Weber had no say. It was all the AD...the same AD that was the reaaon Frank Martin left for South Carolina.
 
jacobkdoyle said:
IF they go 19-16 I can see them getting in the convo. Nino Williams getting hurt early in the West Va game killed them also. He was playing out of his mind before that. Side note on the Foster and Harris suspension...Bruce Weber had no say. It was all the AD...the same AD that was the reaaon Frank Martin left for South Carolina.
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Yep, I was watching that game and Kansas State was in control until they started turning the ball over to the press the last two minutes and then they missed 2 or 3 free throws. WVU was in a real funk at that time.
 

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