I'm not the best at tracking this stuff, so hopefully some of you hardcore number crunchers can have at this thread. I guess we're getting to the point where the cement is starting to dry a bit and this stuff is starting to carry more weight.
If you aren't familiar with it, two sites to use
www.bracketmatrix.com
Compiles over 70 different people who do this. Shows average, high and low ranges, and links to each guys bracket. I think the wisdom of the crowds is pretty much +/- 1 seed line come selection Sunday for the vast majority of teams.
Also really like warren Nolan's site for tracking RPI. We all know the metric is dumb, but the committee use it and this is updated in real time almost instantly, gives projections, impact games that you can see what if stuff for rankings depending on future outcomes etc. Lots of cool features
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/schedule/Cincinnati
Thanks Ervin!! Good stuffIf you aren't familiar with it, two sites to use
www.bracketmatrix.com
Compiles over 70 different people who do this. Shows average, high and low ranges, and links to each guys bracket. I think the wisdom of the crowds is pretty much +/- 1 seed line come selection Sunday for the vast majority of teams.
Also really like warren Nolan's site for tracking RPI. We all know the metric is dumb, but the committee use it and this is updated in real time almost instantly, gives projections, impact games that you can see what if stuff for rankings depending on future outcomes etc. Lots of cool features
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/schedule/Cincinnati
If you aren't familiar with it, two sites to use
www.bracketmatrix.com
Compiles over 70 different people who do this. Shows average, high and low ranges, and links to each guys bracket. I think the wisdom of the crowds is pretty much +/- 1 seed line come selection Sunday for the vast majority of teams.
Also really like warren Nolan's site for tracking RPI. We all know the metric is dumb, but the committee use it and this is updated in real time almost instantly, gives projections, impact games that you can see what if stuff for rankings depending on future outcomes etc. Lots of cool features
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/schedule/Cincinnati
I like that last site a lot. I looked around on there a little bit and looked at that last tab which is "predicted results". It gives a prediction on wins and losses against each team as well as what our final RPI would look like and the amount of column 1, 2, 3, and 4 wins if all went according to plan (which I know it won't).
It shows a regular season ending of us winning every game until WSU away. Final RPI of 13. 5-3 against column 1 and 7-0 against column 2.
Of course none of the teams will go according to stat based predictions...but it's a good way to figure out who to root for as we go. You can look at other teams predicted results as well. Look at their predicted final RPI etc.
As of now WSU would be our best chance obviously. Buffalo is next not only current but predicted RPI at the end in the high 20's. Then SMU and Houston are predicted in the high 30's. I don't think there are any in the predicted results between 40 and 90...then we have a bunch between 90-150. Of course this can't factor in a team getting hot or cold (injuries etc)...but it's a good start to know who to root for.
AP #4, 6, 7 and 8 have lost this week already. Can we pass 7 and 8? WSU lost to SMU at home, Texas beat Texas tech.
Top 10 if we do
Warren Nolan's site has automated team sheets, separating the schedule into the four RPI groups. The Bearcats' team sheet is here: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/team-sheet?team=Cincinnati
There is also a "Predicted Team Sheet" that gives us a total of five Group 1 wins at the end of the season. However, the predictions are deterministic, meaning the most likely result of each individual game is used. The deterministic approach has UC going 28-3 with the only loss at Wichita. Kenpom uses probabilistic predictions, which give us a 26-5 record.
Just to clarify further for non-nerds: say we play 10 games with a 60% chance of winning each. Our deterministic predicted record is 10-0. The probabilistic prediction is 6-4. Determinism gives poor forecasts, so it is likely that the RPIs in Warren Nolan's predicted team sheet will look quite different. It's still an interesting way to get a feel for what our resume may show in March.
A breakdown of 15 teams to root for. I am listing current RPI, followed by projected RPI, followed by current Kenpom. I am only listing potential column 1 and column 2 chances.
Teams we have lost to...
Eggs away...5...6...16 (no danger in moving out of column 1)
FLA neutral...36...27...25 (no danger in moving out of column 1)
OOC teams we beat...
Buffalo...29...25...76 (big disparity here between RPI and Kenpom)...but root root root. They need to finish top 50 rpi for a neutral column 1 win.
UCLA...49...59...51 (We just need them to stay top 75 for column 1)
Miss St...75...77...71 (They are on the bubble of top 75 column 2 home win...we need to root for this team)
Wyoming...88...122...124 (we need them to be top 100 for neutral column 2 win)
Rest of conference play...
WSU...28...18...15 (We need them to stay top 30 RPI for 2 column 1 games)
SMU...59...35...32 (without Foster I don't think they can reach column 1 home win but no danger of dropping from column 1 away and column 2 home games)
Houston...56...45...44 (they aren't getting in column 1 home and in no danger of moving from column 1 away or column 2 home game)
Temple...50...93...94 (we need them top 75 to get a column 1 away win and column 2 home win)
UCF...60...108...83 (ditto to Temple...with Taylor back they might have a chance)
Tulane...105...137...128 ( we need them top 135 for a column 2 away game)
Uconn...93...106...157 (ditto to Tulane but we play Uconn twice)
Memphis...83...129...142 (ditto to above and we play them twice)
No other team on our schedule has a real opportunity right now to move into column 1 or 2.
Thanks, this is a great summary.A breakdown of 15 teams to root for. I am listing current RPI, followed by projected RPI, followed by current Kenpom. I am only listing potential column 1 and column 2 chances.
Wrong thread!!!
Thanks, this is a great summary.
Just a suggestion, but I think it's easier to read threads if when quoting a long post, you cut out everything but one or two relevant sentences. Anyone who wishes to read the entire quoted post can simply click the little arrow next to the name at the top.
I think you are right...but trying to figure out how this all ties in. Obviously our ranking is going to influence our seed and who we root for etc.
We have a thread for Bracketology, games of importance, stats/rankings, around the country, around the AAC etc.
Some of these seem to mix together and some seem to be superfluous. I was trying to figure out where to put it but didn't want to double post. Can we consolidate threads? IDK.
Games of Importance - This may overlap but is also just specific to our schedule.
2017-18 Stats/Rankings - Maybe we can remove the "Rankings" part and add it to Bracketology?
Bracketology - obvious
I view the bracketology thread as a place to make and analyze seeding predictions. Rankings are their own animal, and more of a prestige and "what have you done for me lately?" analysis. But as long as we have good discussions going on, I'm not too concerned about where they happen.