Bracketology

[spinal070508]

So are we throwing metrics out the window then? I mean you're making it sound like it's crazier that we think gonzaga or Missouri could beat Xavier than GA State could beat Uc.

its tourney time. throw the metrics out the window.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

MuskieTalk.com

Smh...

 

[sedziobs]

I love metrics. But if metrics were true we’d be undefeated since we’ve been better than EVERY Team we’ve played this year in metrics.

This is wrong. The metrics predicted we would finish with 4 or more losses way back in the middle of the season. Here's an example from early January:

Warren Nolan's...predictions are deterministic, meaning the most likely result of each individual game is used. The deterministic approach has UC going 28-3 with the only loss at Wichita. Kenpom uses probabilistic predictions, which give us a 26-5 record.

Just to clarify further for non-nerds: say we play 10 games with a 60% chance of winning each. Our deterministic predicted record is 10-0. The probabilistic prediction is 6-4. Determinism gives poor forecasts, so it is likely that the RPIs in Warren Nolan's predicted team sheet will look quite different.

 

[waterhead]

This is the year all remaining monkeys come off our back. The last one is getting to the Elite 8 and beyond. This team has been able to cross some things off the list this year and I expect it to continue.

Outright conference title
Conference tourney champs
Won some major awards in conference
We got a good seed, a decent draw and didn't get shipped out west

We did not win all games at home but we just did that last year. We did not beat X but we did that last year.

The only thing left is the NCAA tourney monkey. I hope some of the minor hand injuries don't affect our shooting too much. Other than that I think we are ready as a team to get the job done.

 

[justinhub2003]

This is wrong. The metrics predicted we would finish with 4 or more losses way back in the middle of the season. Here's an example from early January:

No.

That’s not what I mean.

Kenpom predicted us to beat WSU and Houston individually in both. Games. And we lost.

He is saying that other team are better because of the metrics say they are, but the metrics saying we were better than Houston and WSU meant nothing. We still lost.

Kenpoms individual matchup predictions never match the over all record prediction

 

[sedziobs]

Kenpoms individual matchup predictions never match the over all record prediction

Yeah, that's the whole point. They shouldn't match. They aren't intended to. Probability doesn't work that way. Your statement "if metrics were true we’d be undefeated" is absolutely false.

A loss by a team that metrics say is better does not disprove the metric. Similarly, Vegas odds aren't meaningless because the underdog wins sometimes. An aggregate record of thousands of games that is significantly different than the predicted aggregate record disproves the metric. Kenpom performs exceptionally well in that regard.

Xavier's probability of reaching the elite 8 is the product of their probability in each individual game. It is not 100% because they have more kenpom wins than each team.

You don't have to understand metrics to be a basketball fan. But you should understand them to make claims about them. You have some work to do on that front.

 

[Helicopter]

Thank you. This is like when Nate Silver said Hilary had a 72% chance of winning and when Trump won a lot of people tried to call him a fraud. That's what the 28% means!!!

Absolutely no offense to any other poster on this board but the basics of statistics and probability are so out of reach to so many people.

GSU has gaudy stats that Bearcat fans should definitely pay attention to (I was at first pretty alarmed) such as 3pt% and def FG% but here are some facts we should be confident in:

1. We are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. A big part of our offense is second chance points. GSU is probably the worst defensive rebounding team in the tournament. We should out rebound them by 20 and get 25 pts on second chance points.

2. We are currently a 14 point favorite. Vegas doesn't lose money.

3. They play 6 players. We play 9 freak athletes and 2 skilled PGs.

4. They have one player with the highest usage rate in the tournament. See: Rob Gray, BJ Taylor

Let's avoid the uber-embarrassment of losing to a 15 seed and beat the brakes off of them at the tip.

 

[Jon Rycek]

Virginia is down the sixth man of the year in the ACC/their best pro prospect. Gives us an even better chance against them if we can make it that far

 

[cincycpaw]

Virginia is down the sixth man of the year in the ACC/their best pro prospect. Gives us an even better chance against them if we can make it that far

If they make it that far....