Cats likely to be favored to win 8 of next 11 games
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Thegreatone
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If that happens we will be 25-6 and we would be a 3 or 4 seed. I can't see that happening. I am thinking 23-8 (10-8) before big east tournament.
24-9 overall and earning a 8 seed playing OSU in round 2.
24-9 overall and earning a 8 seed playing OSU in round 2.
MDW79
Well-known member
being favored doesnt mean its projecting uc to win all 8 of those games and lose all 3 of the games they are dogs. Yes they are "the favorite" but its no different than if i put 6 red balls in a bag and 4 green balls in the same bag and I ask you to guess what will be picked (assume we reset to the initial 6 red and 4 green after each draw). You would be favored to get every pick right, but your actual expectation would be 6 correct guesses in 10 tries
right now theyre projected to finish with 6.49 more wins.
.88 vs rutgers
.63 vs wva
.14 @ pitt
.9 @ depaul
.79 vs St Johns
.58 vs Louisville
.64 @ prov
.35@ gtown
.59 vs Uconn
.33 @ marquette
.66 vs Gtown
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BearcatAlum1
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ken poms projections generally mirror the pt spreads pretty closely. In such a great spot right now, but next two home games are must wins. Really, every home game is virtually a must win.
We could EASILY lose 5 in a row: Providence, Gtown, Uconn, Marquette, Gtown.
We will not win @ Marquette. No way. We have better chance at Georgetown.
We cannot lose 5 straight to end the season. Goodbye NCAA bid.
bearcat jeff
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I agree with your Marquette statement but we could just as easily win both G'town games. I agree with having a 5 game skid at that time of year.
Providence will be a tough game. I think UC will win though. I think we will split with G'town, and beat UConn at home but that is certainly not a given.
That's the thing with this league. To quote Scoop Jardin "There are no upsets in this league."
while i agree they could easily lose any individual game on that list of 5, or pretty much on the schedule left, the likelihood they lose 5 games in a row in any 5 game stretch thats left is def less than 10%, and more like 2-5%
just to illustrate
if a team has a measley 20% chance of winning a game in 5 straight games, theyre only gonna lose all 5 games just over 30% of the time.
.8x.8x.8x.8x.8= 32.7%
Mind you, UC is way more likely than 20% in just about every game they have left
if a team has a measley 20% chance of winning a game in 5 straight games, theyre only gonna lose all 5 games just over 30% of the time.
.8x.8x.8x.8x.8= 32.7%
Mind you, UC is way more likely than 20% in just about every game they have left
As has mentioned on multiple occasions, we must win our home games. To do that we need an atmosphere like we see at other road venues. The fan base should galvanize behind this team and sell out FTA. I have tickets to the rest of the home games after RU (too late and a school night for my little ones) and i hope that all of us on this board and other bearcat sites make a concerted effort to be there. We all (well, maybe not everyone on here) want the Cats to succeed and make the NCAA, and with a rocking FTA we can make it happen.
LOL WUT?!?!
UCBearcats
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What's up with all this KenPom stuff?? His computer predictions mean nothing.
Indiana is floundering under Tom Crean, IU presently predicted to finish 12-19. Mick finished 18-13 his third year at UC playing in a much tougher conference than the Big 10 beating Pitt, WVU, Georgetown twice, Syracuse.
Sure am glad UC hired Mick instead of Tom Crean.
Sure am glad UC hired Mick instead of Tom Crean.
bearcat jeff
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He is pretty accurate.
Bearcat_NTS
Well-known member
Every UC game has been pretty straight forward, the only real toss up game was the St Johns game and the prediction was incorrect. What makes KenPom more accurate than the Vegas Line? I agree with his assessments that are used to calculate the teams ratings but when you extrapolate that set of data to predict winners when there are so many variables that come with a game, it loses value.
As you already know, Tom Crean was not an option in March 06. If you are going to give Cronin 10 years (as you have said), then you have to also give Crean 10 years before you can judge him. Bottom line, most of us could care less what Crean and every other coach (including Huggins) does. This is UC. We have a coach that has our team 17-3 and is on the verge of returning us to our rightful place in the basketball landscape. Be happy with this. (I know you are ralph, but enough of what happens at IU, WVU or anywhere else in relationship with what happens here).
no one said kenpom was more accurate than vegas' line. Rather, that it often mirrors closely the vegas line.
Also, the vegas line for the St johns UC game opened at st johns -2.5 and went to -3 at many books by tipoff. So, how was kenpoms St Johns prediction incorrect? He had St Johns as 1 pt fav and expected them to win 51% of the time. Basically a coin flip, that UC would win 49% of the time. Which was pretty much how that game looked to me, and also mirrored closely the vegas line.
obv if it was a magic genie fortune telling machine we'd all be rich and just bet the farm on it, but to try and point out a game that was really as close as the uc/ st johns game as discrediting his method, seems kinda silly to me.
I am comparing Mick's first 3 years at UC to Crean's first 3 years at IU. I believe this is a very fair comparison.
Crean is a damn good Xs and Os coach. Mick still hasn't shown me that he can get his guys to consistently deliver on offense or defense.....at least for an entire 40 minutes.
I like Mick, but if your guys can't run your offense, then find those that can. Just some advice.
I like Mick, but if your guys can't run your offense, then find those that can. Just some advice.