Hicks' Guns
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Conference realignment stuff
- Thread starter ralph1950
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Hicks' Guns
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http://espn.go.com/blog/bigeast/post/_/id/41191/big-east-needs-more-clarity
Pretty much in line with what's been posted here, although it sounds like SDSU is not as wanted by the MWC as once thought.
Pretty much in line with what's been posted here, although it sounds like SDSU is not as wanted by the MWC as once thought.
Bearcat_NTS
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BYU is on the verge of joining the MWC, which could leave SDSU out.
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Barring further expansion.I just dont think BYU will give up the money they make being independent for a non top 4 conference
The Boise State contract with the MWC states that the MWC conference has first rights to SDSU until January 31. That means they can sit back and wait a little bit with SDSU
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Blasphemy huh? Weird word choice.
And I never said is is as clueless as you or I, just he doesn't have any idea what the Big Ten or the SEC are really planning to do.
WAITE HOYT 2
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Hicks'Guns we will be invited to join the ACC soon. Realignment within the other conferences will continue and that means openings in ACC. If your asking is it set in stone. I can't guarantee that but all signs point to yes.
BearcatMick
Well-known member
All hell will break loose after the BCS championship game. Think of the impending chaos as a free market or free for all invvjnh teams. The big named acc teams will be first with fsu leading the way first
FSU is only interested in the SEC, FSU has zero interest in joining the Big 12. IF the SEC does not extend an invitation FSU will remain in the ACC.
The big question to be answered is will UNC separate from Duke? If not, UNC and Duke will both remain in the ACC.
The Big 12 is stuck by geography, none of the current ACC schools want to belong to the Big 12 because of geography.
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BearcatMick
Well-known member
Incorrect as usual. Fsu has no shot at the sec, lukewarm interest from b1g and heavy interest from b12. Yes the sex is their first choice but that has as much chance of happening as you being right on conference realignment.
Fsu knows it will make double in the b12 than the acc. The only reason they aren't there now is because Clemson balked. The raid is imminent.
FSU will never join the Big 12 and never is a very long time.
JasonS
Football Moderator
A couple things:
BearcatMick and I are agreeing on a lot of this conference realignment stuff lately which concerns me. I think I am going to get a CAT Scan this weekend just to make sure I check out. LOL I kid. I kid.
That said, Boise has created a mess for the MWC based on the deal they got. From what I read, Boise will be getting 50% of the bowl revenue and the rest of the conference will split the remaining 50%. This may be fine for the Wyomings of the world, but I can assure you, that just alienated SDSU. I think SDSU would have gone back to the MWC as soon as Boise did, if Boise had a normal agreement. I am guessing that means that SDSU will stay in the CUSA 2.0 but you can never be sure.
As for UC, I am completely confident that UC is in the ACC or Big 12 (I think ACC is far more likely but I think the Big 12 is a far more stable option) within the next 18 months. Florida State with the SEC is in the same situation UC is in with the Big Ten. They offer next to nothing to the TV deal and that is what this is all about. Nothing in terms of TV market, to clarify. The SEC already has the Florida market with the Gators so having FSU is not imperative for them. The Big 12 wants a piece of the Florida market and will push hard for FSU. Clemson could be a hold up because they believe they have a great shot at an SEC bid. I frankly, don't buy it. The SEC already has South Carolina. They don't need Clemson. Once Clemson realizes this, I think they could be Big 12 bound with FSU. This, of course, will be partially determined based on how much Maryland has to pay to go to the Big Ten. Frankly, I don't see them paying anywhere near the $50 Million buy out. Once that is determined, the dominoes will start to fall.
The thing that is keeping the Big 12 together right now is the grant of rights deal and I think that is the reason that it will survive all this realignment crap. I think the SEC views the Big 12 as their biggest threat in football revenue and would love to take two more teams from there. I don't see it happening because of all the TV money those schools would be forfeiting in the grant of rights deal. So here are my best guesses as to the next round of realignment.
Big Ten takes UNC and UVA
Big 12 takes FSU and Clemson
ACC takes Cincy and UCONN
I don't see the SEC making a move unless UNC is involved but I think UNC would find the Big Ten a better fit. Just a guess.
I think the ACC loses 4, gains 2 and stops at 12 teams instead of going for USF or UCF or a couple other marginal adds to get back to a number that is not a great number to be at in 14.
BearcatMick and I are agreeing on a lot of this conference realignment stuff lately which concerns me. I think I am going to get a CAT Scan this weekend just to make sure I check out. LOL I kid. I kid.
That said, Boise has created a mess for the MWC based on the deal they got. From what I read, Boise will be getting 50% of the bowl revenue and the rest of the conference will split the remaining 50%. This may be fine for the Wyomings of the world, but I can assure you, that just alienated SDSU. I think SDSU would have gone back to the MWC as soon as Boise did, if Boise had a normal agreement. I am guessing that means that SDSU will stay in the CUSA 2.0 but you can never be sure.
As for UC, I am completely confident that UC is in the ACC or Big 12 (I think ACC is far more likely but I think the Big 12 is a far more stable option) within the next 18 months. Florida State with the SEC is in the same situation UC is in with the Big Ten. They offer next to nothing to the TV deal and that is what this is all about. Nothing in terms of TV market, to clarify. The SEC already has the Florida market with the Gators so having FSU is not imperative for them. The Big 12 wants a piece of the Florida market and will push hard for FSU. Clemson could be a hold up because they believe they have a great shot at an SEC bid. I frankly, don't buy it. The SEC already has South Carolina. They don't need Clemson. Once Clemson realizes this, I think they could be Big 12 bound with FSU. This, of course, will be partially determined based on how much Maryland has to pay to go to the Big Ten. Frankly, I don't see them paying anywhere near the $50 Million buy out. Once that is determined, the dominoes will start to fall.
The thing that is keeping the Big 12 together right now is the grant of rights deal and I think that is the reason that it will survive all this realignment crap. I think the SEC views the Big 12 as their biggest threat in football revenue and would love to take two more teams from there. I don't see it happening because of all the TV money those schools would be forfeiting in the grant of rights deal. So here are my best guesses as to the next round of realignment.
Big Ten takes UNC and UVA
Big 12 takes FSU and Clemson
ACC takes Cincy and UCONN
I don't see the SEC making a move unless UNC is involved but I think UNC would find the Big Ten a better fit. Just a guess.
I think the ACC loses 4, gains 2 and stops at 12 teams instead of going for USF or UCF or a couple other marginal adds to get back to a number that is not a great number to be at in 14.
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Bearcat_NTS
Well-known member
No surprise, Jason isn't up on his realignment. The ACC schools WILL NOT leave for the Big 12. I expect 2 or 4 ACC schools to go to the B1G or SEC (2 to each respectively). The B1G could also add a Big 12 school like Kansas, thus taking only 3 ACC schools, etc..
JasonS
Football Moderator
Wow, have you been living under a rock? If the Big Ten wanted Kansas, that would have happened when Nebraska happened. The Big Ten was not opposed to going to 16 teams but ND threw a wrench in that. Also, add in the fact that there weren't any homerun schools out there (and that includes Kansas) and they have been patient. Kansas lobbied to get into the Big Ten when Nebraska did and again when Missouri left. They were denied both times. The Big Ten is all about TV markets. Last time I checked, Lawrence doesn't cut it and it's not like there are any real huge TV markets in the state of Kansas.
BearcatMick
Well-known member
It's weird for me to say this but Jason is absolutely correct.
No big12 school will leave the b12. They signed a GOR of 13 years. If they leave they forfeit all their tv money to the other b12 schools for the duration of the contract.
Fsu and Clemson have no other options. The b1g won't take fsu because they are not an elite academic school and the sec will not take fsu because of Florida. The b1g will not take Clemson and the sec already has sc. The big12 already extended invites before this mess to fsu and Clemson last summer. They were gone until Clemson got cold feet. They will make at least double in the b12 than acc.
You are correct about the sec and b1g taking other schools from the acc
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Bearcat_NTS
Well-known member
The ACC contract is going to be redone with the ND/Pitt/SU additions (UofL is just a replacement for Maryland) that is likely to grant them 18.5-19 million dollars, the Big 12 deal is worth about 20 million per school.
Bearcat_NTS
Well-known member
You will proven to be incorrect, ACC schools will not join the Big 12. They will join the SEC or B1G.
BearcatMick
Well-known member
There is no way anyone is paying that much for an acc with fsu, Clemson, Miami, unc, UVA, gt and bc all exploring options to leave. Nd isn't even 100% still committed. When the first acc school leaves, the deal with drop significantly
Bearcat_NTS
Well-known member
Tom Block @_TomBlock
#ACC schools expecting $2 million per school bump for Notre Dame, for 5 games per year. Do the math and ESPN is paying 5-6 mil per ND game.
That would bump the average (remember it scales, so this year 13 mill, next year 14 mil, etc) to near 19 million. Once again, you are incorrect.
BearcatMick
Well-known member
Now you are just being silly. The key word there is "expecting". How'd that go for Boise state when the be promised them a number greatly exaggerated. When teams start leaving, the value of the acc will go down. That's common sense.
BearcatMick
Well-known member
Oklahoma state made close to $20 million this year. the b12 have agreed to two separate tv contracts - one with espn and one with foxsports that will bring a total of $2.6 billion in total revenues. Every team except wvu and tcu(until 2016) will make $20 mil/season.
Florida state makes approximately 14 million per year.
Florida state makes approximately 14 million per year.