Houston: Round 2: The Battle for Everything

[justinhub2003]

• Kenpom lists us a 7 point underdog (70-63)
• Houston has the Number 1 Defense in Conference play.
• Houston has the #2 Offense in Conference play
• UC has the number 4 defense in conference play
• UC has the #3 offense in Conference play
• A key to the game will be eliminating self inflicted TO's. Houston does not try and create them. They are 12th in the league in Steal %, 7th in TO percentage
• UC gets its shot blocked more than any other team (which is fine, it means were aggressive) and Houston is the 3rd best shot blocking team
• Our overall fouling on defense is much improved. Our FTA/FGA is now 2nd in league play
• Houston on the other hand, is foul prone, in fact half of their defensive strategy seems to be that they can't call them all. They are 11th in FTA/FGA
• Battle of the boards. The 2 best offensive rebounding teams face off

• Houston is allowing just 25% from the 3 point line this year in conference.
• UC is allowing a higher percentage from 3 than Houston actually shoots.

To me Houston is an extremely tough matchup because they:
1. Double every single post touch, which basically takes your big out of the game.
2. They then put on ball pressure around the 3 point line from long lengthy guards that don't allow you to get off 3 pointers
3. You can't try and just focus on one guy. Houston has had huge performances Sasser, Grimes, Jarreau, Hinton and Mills

Jarreau has scored in double figures 14 times
Sasser 9 times
Mills 18 times
Grimes 16 times
Hinton 14 times

You can totally eliminate Jarreau and Mills and yet still lose because Sasser, Hinton and Grimes filled in.

We turned Mills into a high volume low efficiency shooter in the last game. We made him take a lot of long two's.

For me the goals to win this game would be:
-Limit turnovers, Zero excuses for turnovers against a team that doesn't gamble
-Force the issue with fouls AND make your free throws.
-Pack in the paint as much as possible and don't bite on drive and kick. Can't collapse on the ball every possession
-Don't get rattled. I don't think we've been rattled all year. No reason to start now.
-Defend for 40 minutes. A week off should be plenty of time to give it your all.
-Need really solid defense. Houston will spread you out and then play ISO ball, especially with mills. Jarron and Keith both did a great job with this last time.


Bait Jarreau into a bite

 

[cincyguy13]

Battle of the century!!!
I give us a 25% chance

 

[kskenyon4]

A game of epic proportions.

Love the sound of "swept Houston and Wichita State" come Selection Sunday.

 

[Loser Mentality]

Keys:

Get back to some form of ball movement to re incorporate Vogt. The angles of getting him the ball have been terrible since Jarron took over at PG.

Keith W: Stay out of foul trouble, mental trouble, and score in double figures with 5 or more rebounds.

Jarron: Limit turnovers, make the simple non spectacular passes. Get other guys involved besides Tre S.

Tre: I would like to see 4 assists from Tre, once again since Jarron is at the PG, Tre no longer looks to pass, which we lose open buckets from other players with his new scoring focus. Can't and wont knock his effort.

Maw: Be aggressive on offense and sneak in 10pts or better for the game.

Vogt: He needs his deep touches, I can see his confidence dwindling slowly

Bench: Good D and 20+ points

Hopefully the guys will be rested and will give 100% effort. Rebound as a team, and keep their man in front of them on Defense.

Brannen: Don't get out coached

 

[justinhub2003]

Keys:

Get back to some form of ball movement to re incorporate Vogt. The angles of getting him the ball have been terrible since Jarron took over at PG.

Keith W: Stay out of foul trouble, mental trouble, and score in double figures with 5 or more rebounds.

Jarron: Limit turnovers, make the simple non spectacular passes. Get other guys involved besides Tre S.

Tre: I would like to see 4 assists from Tre, once again since Jarron is at the PG, Tre no longer looks to pass, which we lose open buckets from other players with his new scoring focus. Can't and wont knock his effort.

Maw: Be aggressive on offense and sneak in 10pts or better for the game.

Vogt: He needs his deep touches, I can see his confidence dwindling slowly

Bench: Good D and 20+ points

Hopefully the guys will be rested and will give 100% effort. Rebound as a team, and keep their man in front of them on Defense.

Brannen: Don't get out coached

I’m all for Vogt getting more deep touches.

But Houston’s “monster” defense, a term they lose to trap the post, makes it really hard to score from the post. The best thing we can do is get the defense to collapse on Vogt and use it to get some big to big passing. But Vogt didn’t pass well at all the last time we played them.

He Did score 10 points once we figured out the coverage more.

 

[Chance2017]

I’m all for Vogt getting more deep touches.

But Houston’s “monster” defense, a term they lose to trap the post, makes it really hard to score from the post. The best thing we can do is get the defense to collapse on Vogt and use it to get some big to big passing. But Vogt didn’t pass well at all the last time we played them.

He Did score 10 points once we figured out the coverage more.

I think UC benefits more from playing Houston already. I say that because UC plays a pretty conventional man to man. Houston on the other hand plays an aggressive trapping D that we weren't used to seeing. You would hope we are more prepared for that this time around.

Outliers from the Feb 1 matchup:
- Caleb Mills played bad(3-19 FG). You would expect him to get back to his averages.
-They were missing Jarreau down the stretch.
-Jarron was 5-12 at the line
-Sasser 4-5 from 3

Prediciton:
UC 68- Houston 65

My key to the game is to play D without fouling. I think the Cats do that and find a way to win. A refreshed and desperate group of seniors make the plays to win this one.

 

[mdchick]

There’s no way we win this game, just start preparing for USF and play Sam Martin and coz 40 mins

 

[Jon Rycek]

There’s no way we win this game, just start preparing for USF and play Sam Martin and coz 40 mins

Nice

 

[justinhub2003]

I think UC benefits more from playing Houston already. I say that because UC plays a pretty conventional man to man. Houston on the other hand plays an aggressive trapping D that we weren't used to seeing. You would hope we are more prepared for that this time around.

Outliers from the Feb 1 matchup:
- Caleb Mills played bad(3-19 FG). You would expect him to get back to his averages.
-They were missing Jarreau down the stretch.
-Jarron was 5-12 at the line
-Sasser 4-5 from 3

Prediciton:
UC 68- Houston 65

My key to the game is to play D without fouling. I think the Cats do that and find a way to win. A refreshed and desperate group of seniors make the plays to win this one.

Sasser’s 3 point shooting is no longer starting to look like an outlier performance and rather a new norm for him.

Last three games from 3:
4-10
3-8
5-10


My guess is that he escaped the scouting report the first time but he won’t this time.

 

[justinhub2003]

There’s no way we win this game, just start preparing for USF and play Sam Martin and coz 40 mins

I feel this In my soul.

 

[CaptDale]

There’s no way we win this game, just start preparing for USF and play Sam Martin and coz 40 mins

Sam can do whatever McNeal does and can play offense. Only thing he lacks is a scholarship (and size). Use him!

 

[cincyguy13]

Keys:

Get back to some form of ball movement to re incorporate Vogt. The angles of getting him the ball have been terrible since Jarron took over at PG.

Keith W: Stay out of foul trouble, mental trouble, and score in double figures with 5 or more rebounds.

Jarron: Limit turnovers, make the simple non spectacular passes. Get other guys involved besides Tre S.

Tre: I would like to see 4 assists from Tre, once again since Jarron is at the PG, Tre no longer looks to pass, which we lose open buckets from other players with his new scoring focus. Can't and wont knock his effort.

Maw: Be aggressive on offense and sneak in 10pts or better for the game.

Vogt: He needs his deep touches, I can see his confidence dwindling slowly

Bench: Good D and 20+ points

Hopefully the guys will be rested and will give 100% effort. Rebound as a team, and keep their man in front of them on Defense.

Brannen: Don't get out coached

All I want from Vogt is to make a couple layups or dunks. To where they have to respect you a little. The biggest thing will be passing out of the double team. If he can pass out of the double, there are wide open guys. He’s been passed better.

 

[cincyalum2014]

Sasser’s 3 point shooting is no longer starting to look like an outlier performance and rather a new norm for him.

Last three games from 3:
4-10
3-8
5-10


My guess is that he escaped the scouting report the first time but he won’t this time.

Which means Sasser will go 8-9 from 3...…

 

[cincyguy13]

Which means Sasser will go 8-9 from 3...…

Sasser is good, he doesn’t seem like he can drive much, but you can’t help off him. Hinton can’t do can’t do much else beside rebound and an open 3 occasionally. Mills is more of a shooter also. They key is stopping Jarreau from driving. It seems to get the whole thing going

 

[Alum2013]

Hoping for a win but will be shocked if we do. Houston seems to be as good or better at just about every position, including coach, and is much more well rounded.

 

[Bcatfollower]

Hoping for a win but will be shocked if we do. Houston seems to be as good or better at just about every position, including coach, and is much more well rounded.

Agreed, why even play this game.

 

[cincyguy13]

I’d really like if Houston came out and started trash talking jarron. Love mad jarron.

 

[cincrulz11]

I’d really like if Houston came out and started trash talking jarron. Love mad jarron.

Lets start Diarra and see if we can get Jarreau out of the game early.

 

[Alum2013]

Agreed, why even play this game.

Let's hear your great take on where that's wrong. Could we win? Yes. But there's a reason we've had OT or 2pt wins in our last 5 games and it's not because we're some juggernaut of a team. Especially on the road.

Forgot if someone doesn't pick UC to win it makes them not a fan.

 

[cincrulz11]

we have to force them into a lot of midrange shots and live with the results. they fired up 29 of them in game one, we could use that again.



if we can get them to settle for those shots and rebound we have a chance to keep it close.


hopefully the long week of rest will get Jarron back in all american form.