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Thegreatone

Thegreatone

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This is a post from BCN poster GoBearcats31:


Late night update from Lunardi

Last Four In
Miami
Texas
Northwestern
South Florida

First Four Out
Xavier
Saint Joseph's
VCU
Colorado State

Next Four Out
Oregon
Colorado
Dayton
NC State

IN (14, in S-Curve order): 35-Southern Miss, 36-California, 37-Cincinnati, 38-Alabama, 41-Arizona, 43-Seton Hall, 44-Connecticut, 45-West Virginia, 46-Mississippi State, 47-Brigham Young, 48-Miami (Fla.), 49-Texas, 50-Northwestern, 51-South Florida

OUT (12, in S-Curve order): 69-Xavier, 70-Saint Joseph’s, 71-VCU, 72-Colorado State, 73-Oregon, 74-Colorado, 75-Dayton, 76-N.C. State, 77-Illinois, 78-New Mexico State, 79-Ohio U., 80-Central Florida
 
Gives the impression that we could really set ourselves up if we win tonight. If we lose, we are not dead.
 
I say UC remains on the bubble. RPI at 76 does not get one in.

Surprisingly, UC is a 1 point favorite tonight according to the Glantz-Culver Line.
 
I thought UCONN's loss last night would at least put them in last 4 in territory. This seems like a case where the numbers and the eye test just don't match up.

Lunardi had nice article about "bid stealers" that the last 4-8 teams in according to him can quickly lose spots when upsets occur in conference tournaments. All of sudden 1 bid leagues are sending 2 teams which eat away at at large bids.

Hopefully the Cats can take care of business tonight and put this bid speculation to bed!
 
BearcatMick said:
Uc will not be the favorite come top off time
Click to expand...

Completely disagree with this. The public bets favored, unranked, home teams playing ranked teams as a system. Public money will be on Cincy today so to move the line, the big money sharps would have to CRUSH Marquette.

Anyway, back on topic. We have to plan on 2 or 3 of those bids disappearing during championship week. You can almost just move the 3 lowest teams on the S-curves to "first teams out" and pretend there are only 34 at larges. That leaves us with a cusion of 8 teams instead of 11 between us and the cut. It's going to be hard to get passed by 8 bubble teams (who tend to hurt themselves more than help themselves this time of year). If Joe is right here, we're pretty much already a lock.

However, Joe is more optimistic than most on our current situation and it would nice to leave some margin for error on the committee's part.
I would say a win tonight locks up a bid regardless. If we lose this one and win Nova, we should be in the same spot we're in now, barely in without Dayton. If we lose both, we'll need at least a win in NY IMO, and even then we are probably playing for Dayton unless we get 2 or 3 BET wins.
 
Tonight is obvioulsy huge but really challenging. I'm surprised we're favorites. Marquette is a very complete team.

Hopefully we win. If not, we're sweating the rest of the way.
 
ucswais said:
Completely disagree with this. The public bets favored, unranked, home teams playing ranked teams as a system. Public money will be on Cincy today so to move the line, the big money sharps would have to CRUS.
Click to expand...

Incorrect. Mu had 4 guys suspended for a half lsat game and all are listed as probable for this game including djo. Linesmakers are just playing it safe. Marquette wik be the favorite once everyone sees the line
 
BearcatMick said:
Incorrect. Mu had 4 guys suspended for a half lsat game and all are listed as probable for this game including djo. Linesmakers are just playing it safe. Marquette wik be the favorite once everyone sees the line
Click to expand...

No reason to argue this, but start planning your excuses now for when what you are stating as fact is proven wrong. I know you only speak in definites since you see the future, but I would say there is an 80-90% chance you'll be wrong.
 
These numbers were on Lance McAllister's blog yesterday. Just some food for thought:


The highest rated team left out/since last major change in RPI formula '05
#21 Missouri St
#30 Hofstra (2006)
#30 Air Force (2007)
... among the big six: #40 Cincinnati (2006).

The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids since '05:
#63 NC State (2005)
#63 Stanford (2007).

The highest rated team ever left out/'94-'04 tournaments
#33 Oklahoma (1994).

The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids '94-'04
#74 New Mexico (1999)
#70 Air Force (2004).

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Obviously, you can see the lowest rated teams to secure a bid since '05 were both had an RPI of 63. (NC State and Standford) Prior to the that, from 94-04, they were ranked at #74 (New Mexico) and #70 (Air Force).

So for everyone who thinks that only one more win, even it comes against Nova and not Marquette, makes a "lock", you may what to redefine the term. I would guess if we were to lose against Marquette, and then beat Villanova, our RPI would jump somewhere up, slightly, to around to the 66-72 range. That would make the Big East tourney game, or hopefully, games, VERY important to make it a no-brainer, no sweating it out, lock. You lose that first round game, and you're on very thin ice.

And I think that Nova game is going to be a lot tougher than some people realize. Playing a team with plenty of talent, with nothing to lose, on Senior day, is going to be a tough out.

A Syracuse team, that was 10-6 in the Big East (16 game schedule) with an RPI of 50 was left out in '07. I know this year the bubble is much weaker, but if we're counting on only one win being enough, we're essentially saying that we can rest easy, having the lowest RPI of any team since 05, and maybe back even further, to land a spot. So are we still sure 11-7, with a RPI sub 65 leaves us with no worries???? If so, that 11 win would look a whole lot better coming tonight, that against sub 500 Villanova.

Big game tonight. Let's get a win! Go Cats!!!

PS Nice to see our 06 team is the highest rated Big 6 program to ever get left out. SMH.
 
Last edited:
ucswais said:
No reason to argue this, but start planning your excuses now for when what you are stating as fact is proven wrong. I know you only speak in definites since you see the future, but I would say there is an 80-90% chance you'll be wrong.
Click to expand...

You are already backtracking and trying to hedge your bets because you know you are wrong. You were so sure of yourself before but now youre at 80-90%.

Marquette will be the slight favorite come gametime
 
Tonight is HUGE!! Cats will get a big rpi boost and almost 100% certainty of a bid with the win. Guesing a win puts them in mid to upper 60's rpi range. Another top 25 rpi win and another win over a ranked team. HUGE I tell ya, HUGE!!
 
BearcatMick said:
You are already backtracking and trying to hedge your bets because you know you are wrong. You were so sure of yourself before but now youre at 80-90%.

Marquette will be the slight favorite come gametime
Click to expand...

I am gonna enjoy laughing at you when you are wrong. Although, you'll probably try and pull up some obscure sports book with a bs line to justify being right, so lets just use this as the rule.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/cincinnati
 
Cincinnati will make the tournament if they avoid a bad loss (which would be Villanova and round 2 at MSG). If they get a bad loss, there will be some sweating on selection sunday.
 
adrock said:
You guys having the same avatar is freaking me out.
Click to expand...

Btw, Is there a way to make this picture an option for avatars now?

dixonposterizes.jpg
 

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