new metric

[sedziobs]

Weekly update:

7. Houston (Q1,Q1)
25. Cincinnati
26. Mississippi St (Q1)
35. Ohio St (Q2)
39. Ole Miss (Q1)
44. UCF (Q1,Q2)
54. Temple (Q1)
70. Memphis (Q1,Q2)
71. South Florida (Q2)
74. UConn (Q1,Q2)
86. UCLA
93. Xavier
99. Tulsa (Q2)
112. NKU
113. SMU (Q2)
125. Wichita St (Q2)
126. George Mason
159. UNLV
262. East Carolina (Q4)

 

[Queens_NYC]

Here is our current record against each quadrant:

Q1: 2-1

Q2: 4-1

Q3: 7-0

Q4: 6-1

Remaining regular season games

Q1: 5 games

Q2: 3 games

Q3: 1 game

Q4: N/A

 

[sirthought]

Thanks for posting these updates.

 

[waterhead]

Not sure just how much the NET will take metrics into consideration but we have won 7 games in a row and have moved down or stayed about even on the T-rank metric currently 30th. However he has us as projected with 6 losses and finishing 18th in the NET. And this is a 7 seed? I hope the win total will push us to a 6 seed.

 

[sedziobs]

Not sure just how much the NET will take metrics into consideration but we have won 7 games in a row and have moved down or stayed about even on the T-rank metric currently 30th. However he has us as projected with 6 losses and finishing 18th in the NET. And this is a 7 seed? I hope the win total will push us to a 6 seed.

Torvik predicts Ole Miss and Memphis will drop out of Q1. He thinks we win one more Q1 game, for a total of two. It's hard to get a good seed with a resume that has only a couple of Q1 wins and a Q4 loss. It will be very important for Ole Miss, Memphis and UConn to finish in Q1.

 

[Queens_NYC]

Torvik predicts Ole Miss and Memphis will drop out of Q1. He thinks we win one more Q1 game, for a total of two. It's hard to get a good seed with a resume that has only a couple of Q1 wins and a Q4 loss. It will be very important for Ole Miss, Memphis and UConn to finish in Q1.

Jalen Adams is out for the rest of the regular season. UConn is a near lock to fall out of Q1 for good.

Ole Miss has lost 4 of their last 6 after cranking out 10 straight wins after we beat them. They play 5 of their final 9 on the road and have home games against UK and Tennessee. If they finish Q1 they will have certainly earned it.

Aside from visiting us again, and maybe @UCF, Memphis's remaining schedule is pretty tame. Key games to preserve Q1 status will be @Wichita State and home against Temple.

 

[sedziobs]

We'll see how UConn responds. All but one of their remaining games are Q1 or Q2, so they really just need to tread water. I'm not counting on it, but they still have a chance.

Ole Miss is sort of in the same boat. 5-4 probably keeps them top 50. All of their losses are in Q1 right now.

 

[sedziobs]

Weekly update:

7. Houston (Q1,Q1)
24. Cincinnati
29. Mississippi St (Q1)
36. Ole Miss (Q1)
38. Ohio St (Q2)
46. UCF (Q1,Q2)
55. Temple (Q1)
67. South Florida (Q2)
68. Memphis (Q1,Q2)
79. UConn (Q2)
81. Tulsa (Q2)
104. UCLA
105. NKU
107. SMU (Q2)
108. Xavier
116. Wichita St (Q2)
138. George Mason
156. UNLV
270. East Carolina (Q4)

 

[waterhead]

I ran the team cast on T-rank. Right now it seems we are securely locked into a 6-7 seed range. But here are some scenarios I ran.

0-1 losses from here on out...6 seed
2-3 losses from here on out...7 seed


I would be shocked if we lost 4 but that would put us as an 8 seed. If we ran the table and made the conference tourney final maybe we would have a shot at a 5 seed but I would also be shocked if we did that.

The most probable scenarios have us as a 6 or 7 seed and I am happy with that.

 

[waterhead]

I ran the team cast on T-rank. Right now it seems we are securely locked into a 6-7 seed range. But here are some scenarios I ran.

0-1 losses from here on out...6 seed
2-3 losses from here on out...7 seed


I would be shocked if we lost 4 but that would put us as an 8 seed. If we ran the table and made the conference tourney final maybe we would have a shot at a 5 seed but I would also be shocked if we did that.

The most probable scenarios have us as a 6 or 7 seed and I am happy with that.

I would probably put the over under at 2 losses right now with a margin of error of 1. T-rank has us losing 3 more but it probably doesn't take into account Jalen Adams being out or SMU having player issues etc.

Either way it's going to take some good basketball to get a 6 seed and average basketball to get a 7. Awesome basketball to get a 5 or horrible basketball to get an 8. If...IF..T-rank is on the money.

 

[sedziobs]

Weekly update:

4. Houston (Q1,Q1)
24. Mississippi St (Q1)
27. Cincinnati
30. Ole Miss (Q1)
40. UCF (Q1,Q2)
44. Ohio St (Q2)
53. Temple (Q1)
64. Memphis (Q1,Q2)
74. Tulsa (Q1,Q2)
78. South Florida
82. UConn (Q2)
95. Xavier
106. SMU (Q2)
110. NKU
114. UCLA
115. Wichita St (Q2)
146. George Mason
160. UNLV
255. East Carolina (Q4)

 

[Queens_NYC]

Cincy NET Resume:

Q1: 4-2

Q2: 2-1

Q3: 9-0

Q4: 6-1


Remaining Regular Season Games:

Q1: 2 (@UCF, Houston)

Q2: 4 (UCF, @UConn, @SMU, Memphis)

Q3: N/A

Q4: N/A

 

[Queens_NYC]

Weekly Resume Update

Record: 23-4 (12-2 AAC)

Current Seed Projection: 7 seed (Bracket Matrix)

Q1: 3-2

Q2: 5-1

Q3: 9-0

Q4: 6-1


Remaining Regular Season Games:

Q1: 2 (@UCF, Houston)

Q2: 2 (@SMU, Memphis)

Q3: N/A

Q4: N/A

 

[sedziobs]

4. Houston (Q1-A,Q1-A)
24. Cincinnati
25. Mississippi St (Q1-A)
34. UCF (Q1-A,Q2)
38. Ole Miss (Q1)
42. Ohio St (Q2)
50. Temple (Q1)
60. Memphis (Q1,Q2)
72. South Florida (Q2)
84. Xavier
93. Tulsa (Q2)
96. Wichita St (Q2)
97. UConn (Q2)
109. SMU (Q2)
110. UCLA
160. UNLV
253. East Carolina (Q4)

NKU and George Mason are 50 spots away from Q2. Not worth tracking them anymore.

 

[waterhead]

We are doing a good job of winning basketball games so we look good for our quadrant wins and losses but we are doing a poor job with our metrics.

We were ranked #19 after the ECU loss (per T-rank). We are now ranked #31 after winning 11 of 12 games. The Houston loss dropped us only 1 spot. So in the other 11 wins we have dropped a total of 11 spots. Every game since Tulsa we have either lost ground or stayed about even. That includes 6 out of 7 wins.

Eeking out wins is not enough to move seed lines. But I guess it's better than the alternative.

 

[cincrulz11]

We are doing a good job of winning basketball games so we look good for our quadrant wins and losses but we are doing a poor job with our metrics.

We were ranked #19 after the ECU loss (per T-rank). We are now ranked #31 after winning 11 of 12 games. The Houston loss dropped us only 1 spot. So in the other 11 wins we have dropped a total of 11 spots. Every game since Tulsa we have either lost ground or stayed about even. That includes 6 out of 7 wins.

Eeking out wins is not enough to move seed lines. But I guess it's better than the alternative.

the offense has been bad. our adjo on bartorvik is 111.7 and we'v been under that 5 of the last 6 games and 10 of 13 games since the Tulane game.

 

[waterhead]

the offense has been bad. our adjo on bartorvik is 111.7 and we'v been under that 5 of the last 6 games and 10 of 13 games since the Tulane game.

Yah...maybe we should try to put the ball in the hands of the other guards a little more. If the other teams are going to gravitate 2 or even 3 players towards Cumberland we should be able to get some nice 4 on 3 action out there. If we are being played straight up then Cumberland is the guy.

I just don't understand why Cumberland needs to run around so much to get open either. Just hand the ball off to him or keep it in his hands if we want him with the ball. I don't think we need to run him off screens the entire possession just to get the ball to him. Let him take some plays off and just draw attention to create space for other guys to make plays.

It's hard to deny him the ball on a handoff or if he brings the ball up the court. He can dribble around for 10 seconds at the top of the key to get some rest if we want to. Stop all this rocker motion back and forth base line running for him. It seems unnecessary to me and it's going to tire him out.

 

[sedziobs]

Guy's, let's please try to keep this thread on the topic of NET rankings. Plenty of other places to talk about Cumberland and efficiency.

 

[Jon Rycek]

Guy's, let's please try to keep this thread on the topic of NET rankings. Plenty of other places to talk about Cumberland and efficiency.

Lol, as little conversation is happening on this board is it that big of a deal.

 

[Queens_NYC]

Weekly Resume Update

Record: 25-4 (14-2 AAC)

NET: 21

Current Seed Projection: 7 seed (6.43 avg on Bracket Matrix)

Q1: 4-2

Q2: 6-1

Q3: 9-0

Q4: 6-1


Remaining Regular Season Games:

Q1: 2 (@UCF, Houston)

Q2: N/A

Q3: N/A

Q4: N/A


Potential AAC Tournament Opponents:

Q1: Houston, UCF

Q2: Memphis, Temple, South Florida, Wichita, UConn, Tulsa

Q3: SMU

Q4: East Carolina, Tulane