new metric

[mdchick]

I’d like to compare our last years season resume to this one to see how far off we are from last years resume

 

[sedziobs]

Last year, going into the conference tournament we were 5-4 in Q1 and 8-0 in Q2 with no bad losses. This year we are 4-2 in Q1, 6-1 in Q2 with 1 bad loss.

 

[sedziobs]

6. Houston (Q1-A,Q1-A)
21. Cincinnati
22. Mississippi St (Q1-A)
29. UCF (Q1-A,Q1)
37. Ole Miss (Q1)
43. Ohio St (Q2)
53. Memphis (Q1,Q2)
57. Temple (Q1)
70. Xavier (Q2)
82. South Florida
91. Wichita St (Q2)
94. UConn (Q2)
99. Tulsa (Q2)
115. SMU (Q2)
158. UNLV
253. East Carolina (Q4)

 

[cincrulz11]

NET appears to be great for our conference. The top 5 teams are all higher on NET than on Kenpom and 4/5 higher than Barttorvik (UCF is 28 on barttorvik and 29 on NET)

 

[sedziobs]

It also helps compared to RPI. Using RPI, our team sheet records would be 4-2 in Q1 and 4-1 in Q2. So the switch to NET this year has given us a couple extra quality wins.

 

[cincrulz11]

It also helps compared to RPI. Using RPI, our team sheet records would be 4-2 in Q1 and 4-1 in Q2. So the switch to NET this year has given us a couple extra quality wins.

i wondered about that but was too lazy to try to look it up. i honestly wasn't even sure if rpi was being updated this year.

 

[sedziobs]

i wondered about that but was too lazy to try to look it up. i honestly wasn't even sure if rpi was being updated this year.

Warren Nolan still calculates RPI.

 

[tonka]

Last year, our metrics at the end of the regular season were RPI: 7, BPI: 5, Kenpom: 4, Sagarin: 6, and KPI: 9. Our 4 losses were all against highly rated teams no matter what the metrics were. Unfortunately, this season our losses have been to lesser competition. Houston is similar to X, Miss St is similar to Florida, but ECU is nowhere close to the Houston loss last year and Ohio St is a home loss that is about 30 spots worse than Wichita was last year.

This is a big week to help our overall resume. It would be incredible to finish 27-4 again.

 

[waterhead]

3 games ago UCF was around 44th on T-rank and UC was 32nd. Both teams win all 3 games. UCF is now at 27th and UC at 34th. We were up 12 and now we are down 7 for a 19 point swing. Just goes to show what playing good basketball will do for your metrics compared to clawing out wins.

We are still doing well in the quadrants but we haven't done anything for our metrics in a long time. I would imagine our metrics will drop us a seed line from wherever our NET quadrants end up unless we just crush from here on out but we haven't really shown any signs of breaking out recently.

Our defense has been impressive the last 5 games. Our average efficiency on T-rank would rank us 2nd if it were an entire season. Our offense would be around 175 over the last 5 games. We just can't seem to put complete games together. Had we kept our offense where it was and just improved our D we would be looking very good right now. It seems like when we are doing one thing well something else suffers. The team can only seem to focus on so many things at one time.

We are exactly at the point where it would be nice to put complete games together given our two remaining opponents and tourneys coming up.

 

[sedziobs]

If you're going to talk about metrics, it would probably be wise to limit them to the ones the committee uses. Those are BPI, Kempom, and Sagarin. Torvik's site is interesting for fans, but is irrelevant in terms of bracketology. As I have said previously, Torvik's ratings are extremely volatile and don't do a good job with large scoring margins. We're exacly 5 spots ahead of UCF in all of the committee's metrics, but 7 points behind them in T-Rank.

UC
29 BPI
31 Kenpom
26 Sagarin
34 Torvik

UCF
34 BPI
36 Kenpom
31 Sagarin
27 Torvik

 

[waterhead]

If you're going to talk about metrics, it would probably be wise to limit them to the ones the committee uses. Those are BPI, Kempom, and Sagarin. Torvik's site is interesting for fans, but is irrelevant in terms of bracketology. As I have said previously, Torvik's ratings are extremely volatile and don't do a good job with large scoring margins. We're exacly 5 spots ahead of UCF in all of the committee's metrics, but 7 points behind them in T-Rank.

UC
29 BPI
31 Kenpom
26 Sagarin
34 Torvik

UCF
34 BPI
36 Kenpom
31 Sagarin
27 Torvik

That's fair. I was just trying to show metric movement and I don't have premium Kenpom. Do you know how far UC and UCF moved over the past 3 games on kempom? Obviously it won't be as significant as you pointed out but I would be interested to see how it looked then vs now. I would suspect UCF closed the gap at least a little

 

[sedziobs]

That's fair. I was just trying to show metric movement and I don't have premium Kenpom. Do you know how far UC and UCF moved over the past 3 games on kempom? Obviously it won't be as significant as you pointed out but I would be interested to see how it looked then vs now. I would suspect UCF closed the gap at least a little

I didn't renew my Kenpom subscription this year, but I have been checking the rankings every now and then. I don't remember them ever being more than a few spots away from 30.

NCAA.com keeps an archive of their team sheets. Here's the rankings After the UCF game, and the change since:

UC
26 BPI (+3)
31 Kenpom (0)
28 Sagarin (-2)
32 Torvik (+2)

UCF
45 BPI (-11)
50 Kenpom (-14)
41 Sagarin (-10)
44 Torvik (-17)

UCF has improved in all metrics for good reason. Winning at Houston will do that. UC has been steady. Going farther back shows a bigger disparity. Here's our rankings from January 7 (first release of the season):

UC
21 BPI (+8)
30 Kenpom (+1)
21 Sagarin (+5)
19 Torvik (+15)

Kenpom has been remarkably stable.

 

[waterhead]

I didn't renew my Kenpom subscription this year, but I have been checking the rankings every now and then. I don't remember them ever being more than a few spots away from 30.

NCAA.com keeps an archive of their team sheets. Here's the rankings After the UCF game, and the change since:

UC
26 BPI (+3)
31 Kenpom (0)
28 Sagarin (-2)
32 Torvik (+2)

UCF
45 BPI (-11)
50 Kenpom (-14)
41 Sagarin (-10)
44 Torvik (-17)

UCF has improved in all metrics for good reason. Winning at Houston will do that. UC has been steady. Going farther back shows a bigger disparity. Here's our rankings from January 7 (first release of the season):

UC
21 BPI (+8)
30 Kenpom (+1)
21 Sagarin (+5)
19 Torvik (+15)

Kenpom has been remarkably stable.

Thanks for doing that. It wasn't just the Houston game for UCF. They blew the doors off of SMU and handled USF away quite nicely. They are playing some damn good basketball and I am more than a little worried going to their house on senior day. If we beat them it will be no small feat.

 

[sedziobs]

Thanks for doing that. It wasn't just the Houston game for UCF. They blew the doors off of SMU and handled USF away quite nicely. They are playing some damn good basketball and I am more than a little worried going to their house on senior day. If we beat them it will be no small feat.

Most of Torvik's UCF change is due to overvaluing the blowout over SMU. This is the basic point I'm trying to make.

Before SMU game and change:
46 BPI (-5)
50 Kenpom (-4)
41 Sagarin (-3)
44 Torvik (-12)

Before Houston game and change:
40 BPI (-6)
42 Kenpom (-6)
36 Sagarin (-4)
31 Torvik (-4)

The other rankings discount the huge margin, and rewarded UCF more for their win at Houston than their home win vs SMU. Torvik valued the Houston win only a third as much as the SMU blowout. That doesn't pass the smell test for me.

 

[waterhead]

Most of Torvik's UCF change is due to overvaluing the blowout over SMU. This is the basic point I'm trying to make.

Before SMU game and change:
46 BPI (-5)
50 Kenpom (-4)
41 Sagarin (-3)
44 Torvik (-12)

Before Houston game and change:
40 BPI (-6)
42 Kenpom (-6)
36 Sagarin (-4)
31 Torvik (-4)

The other rankings discount the huge margin, and rewarded UCF more for their win at Houston than their home win vs SMU. Torvik valued the Houston win only a third as much as the SMU blowout. That doesn't pass the smell test for me.

I understand what you have been saying about Torvik. All I am saying is that UCF has played damn good basketball and they are moving the needle in the right direction. Just to beat Houston away is huge but their other convincing wins tell a story about where they are as a team right now compared to where we are.

Our needle is not moving but I will take the W's.

 

[Queens_NYC]

Weekly Resume Update

Record: 25-6 (14-4 AAC)

NET: 27

Current Seed Projection: 7 seed (6.33 avg on Bracket Matrix - will update for 3/11)

Q1: 4-4

Q2: 6-1

Q3: 9-0

Q4: 6-1


Potential AAC Tournament Opponents (3/11 NET rank in parenthesis):

Q1: Houston (4), UCF (28), Temple (50)

Q2: Memphis (53),*Tulsa (89), Wichita (90), UConn (95), South Florida (97)

Q3: *SMU (103)

Q4: East Carolina (258), Tulane (297)

*UC plays winner of Tulsa/SMU in AAC Quarterfinals

 

[sedziobs]

4. Houston (Q1-A,Q1-A)
21. Mississippi St (Q1-A)
27. Cincinnati
28. UCF (Q1-A,Q1)
34. Ole Miss (Q1)
50. Temple (Q1)
53. Memphis (Q1,Q2)
55. Ohio St (Q2)
71. Xavier (Q2)
89. Tulsa (Q2)
90. Wichita St (Q2)
95. UConn (Q2)
97. South Florida
103. SMU (Q2)
158. UNLV
258. East Carolina (Q4)