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Bearcat_NTS

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First one of the season. Selection Sunday just 3 weeks away. This is primarily metric based. This is as of the games played today. The projected conference winner is the one that is highest in my ratings.

Last 4 in: Clemson, California, Seton Hall, TCU
First 4 out: Marquette, Georgetown, Syracuse, Rhode Island
Next 4 out: Providence, Alabama, Pittsburgh, Illinois (YUCK)

Oddities: Wisconsin is really low. Florida, Xavier, Middle Tennessee are really high

Notes: It is one of the stronger group of 13, 14 and 15 seeds I've seen. Obviously there will be upsets in the conference tournaments but if it holds we could see some nice upsets.

1 SEEDS:
Villanova (Big East)
Kansas (Big 12)
Gonzaga (WCC)
North Carolina (ACC)

2 SEEDS:
Baylor
Louisville
Kentucky (SEC)
Florida

3 SEEDS:
Oregon (PAC 12)
Duke
Arizona
Florida State

4 SEEDS:
Virginia
Butler
Purdue (Big 10)
Cincinnati (American)

5 SEEDS:
UCLA
West Virginia
Creighton
St. Mary's

6 SEEDS:
Maryland
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Xavier

7 SEEDS:
SMU
Oklahoma State
Minnesota
South Carolina

8 SEEDS:
VCU (Atlantic 10)
Northwestern
Arkansas
Dayton

9 SEEDS:
Middle Tennessee (Conference USA)
Iowa State
Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
Virginia Tech

10 SEEDS:
USC
Wake Forest
Michigan State
Illinois State

11 SEEDS:
Miami-FL
Michigan
Clemson/Seton Hall
California/TCU

12 SEEDS:
Kansas State
UT-Arlington (Sun Belt)
UNC-Wilmington (CAA)
Nevada (MWC)

13 SEEDS:
Vermont (America East)
Monmouth (MAAC)
Princeton (Ivy)
Belmont (OVC)

14 SEEDS:
New Mexico State (WAC)
Akron (MAC)
East Tennessee State (Southern)
Bucknell (Patriot)

15 SEEDS:
UNC-Asheville (Big South)
Florida Gulf Coast (ASun)
Valpariso (Horizon)
North Dakota State (Summit)

16 SEEDS:
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
UC-Irvine (Big West)/Mount St. Mary's (NEC)
New Orleans (SInd)/ North Carolina Central (MEAC)
 
I would like to avoid UCLA. Don't know if we can score with them. But they don't play any defense so maybe we can. Only one of the 4/5s I would want to avoid
 
Bearcat_NTS said:
First one of the season. Selection Sunday just 3 weeks away. This is primarily metric based. This is as of the games played today. The projected conference winner is the one that is highest in my ratings.

Last 4 in: Clemson, California, Seton Hall, TCU
First 4 out: Marquette, Georgetown, Syracuse, Rhode Island
Next 4 out: Providence, Alabama, Pittsburgh, Illinois (YUCK)

Oddities: Wisconsin is really low. Florida, Xavier, Middle Tennessee are really high

Notes: It is one of the stronger group of 13, 14 and 15 seeds I've seen. Obviously there will be upsets in the conference tournaments but if it holds we could see some nice upsets.

1 SEEDS:
Villanova (Big East)
Kansas (Big 12)
Gonzaga (WCC)
North Carolina (ACC)

2 SEEDS:
Baylor
Louisville
Kentucky (SEC)
Florida

3 SEEDS:
Oregon (PAC 12)
Duke
Arizona
Florida State

4 SEEDS:
Virginia
Butler
Purdue (Big 10)
Cincinnati (American)

5 SEEDS:
UCLA
West Virginia
Creighton
St. Mary's

6 SEEDS:
Maryland
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Xavier

7 SEEDS:
SMU
Oklahoma State
Minnesota
South Carolina

8 SEEDS:
VCU (Atlantic 10)
Northwestern
Arkansas
Dayton

9 SEEDS:
Middle Tennessee (Conference USA)
Iowa State
Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
Virginia Tech

10 SEEDS:
USC
Wake Forest
Michigan State
Illinois State

11 SEEDS:
Miami-FL
Michigan
Clemson/Seton Hall
California/TCU

12 SEEDS:
Kansas State
UT-Arlington (Sun Belt)
UNC-Wilmington (CAA)
Nevada (MWC)

13 SEEDS:
Vermont (America East)
Monmouth (MAAC)
Princeton (Ivy)
Belmont (OVC)

14 SEEDS:
New Mexico State (WAC)
Akron (MAC)
East Tennessee State (Southern)
Bucknell (Patriot)

15 SEEDS:
UNC-Asheville (Big South)
Florida Gulf Coast (ASun)
Valpariso (Horizon)
North Dakota State (Summit)

16 SEEDS:
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
UC-Irvine (Big West)/Mount St. Mary's (NEC)
New Orleans (SInd)/ North Carolina Central (MEAC)
Click to expand...

Nice work!
Seems pretty accurate.

- Michigan St is in danger of dropping out of tourney especially with injury today to top 3 point shooter. They need deep run in Big Ten tourney and only 1 more loss in regular season.

- Xavier should be in danger, but is being saved by RPI. They would have to lose 2 to 3 more regular season games and a loss to bad team in Big East tourney to miss NCAA tourney.
 
Last edited:
WVU has a way better resume. I'm sorry UK has been beyond poor against anyone with a pulse.
 
I don't get the saint Mary's thing. Their best win is Dayton and byu and they lost to tx-Arlington
 
Looks pretty good.

I agree with some others about WV. Huge difference for them between RPI and KenPom. In the end, I think they'll be higher than you show them.

I think X will lose 2 more in the regular season and I can't imagine them making much noise in their tourney. I think they'll be a 7 or even an 8.

I hope you're right about UC. I'm worried since we weren't a 4 seed before the SMU loss. If we win the conference tournament I think we'll be a 4. Otherwise I think we're a 5 (barring a bad loss).
 
I'd love UC to get a 4. They won't. As committee has shown over and over they hate the AAC. WVU is 3rd in Kenpon. They'll be a 3 at worse a 4.
 
Nice stuff NTS!

Have to agree with your point about upsets. Really not that 1 dominating team out there. Been waiting for one team to really get on a roll but haven't identified one to this point. Kansas will be very tough but Bill Self will find away to screw them up. Feel like this year it is wide open.
 
Not bad, but yeah, like others have stated, WVU as a 5-seed is asinine. They're #3 in KenPom.

I'm also not all that sold on FSU. 3-seed seems high. Could see them getting a 5 if Selection Sunday were today.
 
Remember bracketology isn't putting what you think the seeds should be nor NTS's personal rankings.

These are what NTS thinks the committee will do. Most of the "that's stupid" such as West Virginia, isn't someone being down on West Virginia or putting Kentucky at a 2 is more along the lines of this is what I expect the committee to do.
 
Couple of things:

1. The NCAA Tournament is supposed to select teams with the best resumes. The KenPom was a factor I considered but keep in mind it is a predictive metric and doesn't always represent a teams actual resume. More importantly the committee hasn't shown to be put a high value on it.

2. The factors I consider are factors I believe the committee strongly considers (Top 50 wins, RPI, road wins, etc). Given the committee is not often consistent maybe these aren't the best.

3. I will continue to tweak what I use. There are biases in who is on the committee and what conferences they represent that I've yet to include
 
But how does a school he might not win their junk league, with literally 1 good win get a top 2 seed or even top 3? Explain this to me?
 

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