Prediction...

BearcatTalk

Help Support BearcatTalk:

Cin City said:
I always find myself playing around on Warren Nolans site...worth looking at if you haven't been. Anyway, for al the doom and gloom we've played out in our heads, he seems to think pretty highly of us with his game by game predictions. Have a look.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/team-predict-schedule?team=Cincinnati
Click to expand...

I'm not going to jump off the ledge after one game. We missed a lot of shots that we will make a higher % of in the future. That being said...

We saw 38 of 40 minutes being played by Brooks/Nsoseme at the 5 and 27 minutes out of Jenifer. That is a combined 65 minutes of 80 possible. I think that number should be closer to 50 total. About 15 each from the bigs and 20 or so from Jenifer (assuming Johnson will never earn 25 to 30 minutes as a frosh). But we have to give Johnson a REAL shot and I would rather play small for a while than run with 2 bigs on the court. I am okay with Scott getting around 30 minutes because he can do that from both the 4 and 5 spot. He gives us at least a "decent" chance at stretching the court and he can run the high ball screen and pick and roll because he can hit a face up J or make a good pass or put the ball on the floor once and head to the rack. Neither of the other bigs can do any of that stuff and Scott is somewhat limited as well.

This team needs a 3rd scorer on the court or someone who can at least create easy looks for others. If we start to see more of Johnson and small ball I will be a little more hopeful of our season. Even with small ball I am reluctant until we see one of the wings start to prove their worth. If we don't see that happen then we might be better off with protecting the rim and grabbing rebounds...but our potential will be limited.
 
I really think Keith Williams will surprise us by years end. He has the tools to be that 3rd guy. We've seen flashes. Just gotta keep it consistent and use that slashing ability.
 
Cin City said:
I really think Keith Williams will surprise us by years end. He has the tools to be that 3rd guy. We've seen flashes. Just gotta keep it consistent and use that slashing ability.
Click to expand...

Hope you are right...or that those who say Moore is a great shooter are right...but I'm in wait and see mode with these kids. At least Williams can finish at the rim, something Brooks can't do.

I hope we get to see a Johnson, Broome, Cumberland, Scott, Nsoseme lineup for a decent stretch. And then a Johnson, Broome, Williams/Moore, Cumberland, Scoot lineup for a stretch
 
cincycpaw said:
Hope you are right...or that those who say Moore is a great shooter are right...but I'm in wait and see mode with these kids. At least Williams can finish at the rim, something Brooks can't do.

I hope we get to see a Johnson, Broome, Cumberland, Scott, Nsoseme lineup for a decent stretch. And then a Johnson, Broome, Williams/Moore, Cumberland, Scoot lineup for a stretch
Click to expand...

I think the stretch of UNLV, NKU, X, and Miss. State will really give us a feel for the season and conference schedule. I feel that teams like those mimic our conference opponents quite well. SOOOOO, hopefully we can catch some positive glimpses and grab a few W's.
 
Cin City said:
I really think Keith Williams will surprise us by years end. He has the tools to be that 3rd guy. We've seen flashes. Just gotta keep it consistent and use that slashing ability.
Click to expand...

He needs to place in transition... as does this entire team.

Simply just not enough shooting to play in the half court.... Ever.
 
While that certainly is enticing and something that would completely blow us away as a fan base...I still think we end up in that 8-11 loss range. Road games in conference will be tough. @UConn @Houston @UCF @Memphis...even @WSU. Tough. Not saying we can't get wins, but it will certainly be a challenge. I like where are right now and the next two will certainly tell us more about this team than the last 3. Let's enjoy it fella's and ladies.
 
I'll quote myself from last year:

sedziobs said:
Warren Nolan's predictions are deterministic, meaning the most likely result of each individual game is used. The deterministic approach has UC going 28-3 with the only loss at Wichita. Kenpom uses probabilistic predictions, which give us a 26-5 record.

Just to clarify further for non-nerds: say we play 10 games with a 60% chance of winning each. Our deterministic predicted record is 10-0. The probabilistic prediction is 6-4. Determinism gives poor forecasts, so it is likely that the RPIs in Warren Nolan's predicted team sheet will look quite different.
Click to expand...
 
sedziobs said:
I'll quote myself from last year:
Click to expand...

To add to that I think Torvik has us at 24-7 probabilistic and 27-4 deterministic. It is still interesting that Nolan has us winning the next game (by 1) but we are 4 point dogs on Torvik site. Not sure how they can be that far off each other.
 
waterhead said:
To add to that I think Torvik has us at 24-7 probabilistic and 27-4 deterministic. It is still interesting that Nolan has us winning the next game (by 1) but we are 4 point dogs on Torvik site. Not sure how they can be that far off each other.
Click to expand...
Probably because Warren Nolan doesn't have a very good model.

His stuff doesn't come near as close to mirroring Vegas lines as torvik and kpom.
 
Warren Nolan uses a "Resid" model, which I assume is an abbreviation for residuals. That would imply some sort of regression, which do not deal with outliers very well. He doesn't show his methodology anywhere though, so it's impossible to tell what his model is really doing.

Nolan's Resid model has Penn as 2pt favorites against Villanova today. Kenpom shows them as 5pt underdogs. That's quite a difference.
 
sedziobs said:
Warren Nolan uses a "Resid" model, which I assume is an abbreviation for residuals. That would imply some sort of regression, which do not deal with outliers very well. He doesn't show his methodology anywhere though, so it's impossible to tell what his model is really doing.

Nolan's Resid model has Penn as 2pt favorites against Villanova today. Kenpom shows them as 5pt underdogs. That's quite a difference.
Click to expand...

Penn wins !!!! hmmmmmmmm !!!
 
Well that's it. Screw Kenpom. I'm only using Warren Nolan from now on. We're going 28-2. Apparently the last game of the season against Houston has been canceled.
 

Similar threads

G
East Carolina
3 4 5
Replies
94
Views
28K
Uclawrugby
U
G
Player Breakdown (to this point of the season)
2 3
Replies
40
Views
23K
mdchick
M
W
Minutes 2018-2019
2
Replies
32
Views
11K
jacobkdoyle
J
J
Old Threads
Replies
0
Views
3K
jacobkdoyle
J
H
About the Hawkeyes from a Hawkeye
6 7 8
Replies
152
Views
45K
Mcginnjw
M
Back
Top