@SMU

[WAITE HOYT 2]

I try to follow my head, not my heart...I also tend to bet against my heart, operating on the theory that if my team loses, I'm devastated, but at least I can console myself with $$ - if my team wins, the joy I have more than offsets the financial loss (I'm not a big bettor, obviously)

Bottom line, (and of course I hope I'm wrong) SMU 68-59

Jucker I have a rule. I never bet on games where i am emotionally invested in one of the teams. Emotion usually causes errors in judgment.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Sorry nerd-bashers, but I'm basing my prediction on the law of averages. Whether you believe in "luck" or not, KenPom has UC as the 58th luckiest team out of 351. SMU is 205th. We've won a LOT of close games this year. I know you can attribute that to strong leadership and playing clutch down the stretch, but it's impossible to win every close game you play in. That just doesn't happen.

I think it'll be a hell of a game, and we'll be right with them from tip to finish. But I'll take SMU, 63-61. Praying I'm wrong.

I understand your logic. I hope I am pleasantly surprised by a Cat win Sunday afternoon.

 

[NKY Bearcat]

With so much on the line, and the motivation/focus that comes with it, I am going to take the talent.

UC 62
SMU 56

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Sorry nerd-bashers, but I'm basing my prediction on the law of averages. Whether you believe in "luck" or not, KenPom has UC as the 58th luckiest team out of 351. SMU is 205th. We've won a LOT of close games this year. I know you can attribute that to strong leadership and playing clutch down the stretch, but it's impossible to win every close game you play in. That just doesn't happen.

I think it'll be a hell of a game, and we'll be right with them from tip to finish. But I'll take SMU, 63-61. Praying I'm wrong.

#Bannned

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I try to follow my head, not my heart...I also tend to bet against my heart, operating on the theory that if my team loses, I'm devastated, but at least I can console myself with $$ - if my team wins, the joy I have more than offsets the financial loss (I'm not a big bettor, obviously)

Bottom line, (and of course I hope I'm wrong) SMU 68-59

Haha I love that approach to betting in big games when your team is involved.

 

[waterhead]

Sorry nerd-bashers, but I'm basing my prediction on the law of averages. Whether you believe in "luck" or not, KenPom has UC as the 58th luckiest team out of 351. SMU is 205th. We've won a LOT of close games this year. I know you can attribute that to strong leadership and playing clutch down the stretch, but it's impossible to win every close game you play in. That just doesn't happen.

I think it'll be a hell of a game, and we'll be right with them from tip to finish. But I'll take SMU, 63-61. Praying I'm wrong.

I don't think luck is the primary difference between last year and this year at all. Last year I think we lost 6-8 games decided by 3 points or less and this year I think we are 4-0.

If it were just luck we should have been 4-4 and 2-2. I think you create your own luck much of the time by being more focused, more talented, more confident, more determined etc. Or less as the case may be.

We could make individual cases for luck...but the overall resume speaks more against luck and more to the things that cause you to win or lose basketball games like execution and determination. We could make the case for insane shooting by Marshall or Bluiett...but we won those games.

For this reason I like our chances in the "lucky" department. We are simply better prepared to win close games this year.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I will be at the game and I was there two years ago and brought home a victory. I think UC wins this by 2-4 points. SMU is a good team and there would be no shame in losing the game on the road. I fully expect the team to come out and play well. There won't be any issues getting motivated for this game. I'm going to say UC 66 SMU 62.

Defense, defense, defense. They are going to be fired up in a rocking gym. We need to man up on them and limit the crowd. My concern is that we "feel things out" and it becomes like the X game last year. Screw it, 5 on 5, leave it all on the court.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I don't think luck is the primary difference between last year and this year at all. Last year I think we lost 6-8 games decided by 3 points or less and this year I think we are 4-0.

If it were just luck we should have been 4-4 and 2-2. I think you create your own luck much of the time by being more focused, more talented, more confident, more determined etc. Or less as the case may be.

We could make individual cases for luck...but the overall resume speaks more against luck and more to the things that cause you to win or lose basketball games like execution and determination. We could make the case for insane shooting by Marshall or Bluiett...but we won those games.

For this reason I like our chances in the "lucky" department. We are simply better prepared to win close games this year.

What is the gap in "luck" on KenPom between us and SMU? Not ranking wise, but numbers wise. And how do you quantify it?

 

[waterhead]

Defense, defense, defense. They are going to be fired up in a rocking gym. We need to man up on them and limit the crowd. My concern is that we "feel things out" and it becomes like the X game last year. Screw it, 5 on 5, leave it all on the court.

Yah...I agree 100%. Defense, defense, defense...followed by aggression, aggression, aggression. Come out confident not tentative. If the shots don't fall we can live with that...but take it to the hole early and often. Lock them down...and crush them!

Screw this close game talk...just bury them!!

 

[waterhead]

What is the gap in "luck" on KenPom between us and SMU? Not ranking wise, but numbers wise. And how do you quantify it?

I don't know what the luck factor is for Kenpom but I assume it has to do with winning close games and/or how many games you were expected to win vs how many games you should win compared to his predictions.

If we were expected to win 75% of certain games and we won 90%...that is determined to be lucky...I think. We might be just winning more games than predicted.

I think BearcatNation said it was 58th vs 205th ranking for our teams.

 

[#BearcatNation]

I don't know what the luck factor is for Kenpom but I assume it has to do with winning close games and/or how many games you were expected to win vs how many games you should win compared to his predictions.

If we were expected to win 75% of certain games and we won 90%...that is determined to be lucky...I think. We might be just winning more games than predicted.

I think BearcatNation said it was 58th vs 205th ranking for our teams.

I *think* KenPom's luck is all about margin of victories vs. your record. So if every time you lose, you get blown out, but all your wins are by just a couple points, you'll be looked at as "lucky", since none of your wins are dominations.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400916580

Looking at the box score from our game with SMU a couple of things really stand out.

1. Clark and Washington were a combined 13 -16 from the field and 3-4 from three. I have to believe SMU will be doubling the post every time the ball goes into the paint. they will also try to keep it from getting there.

2. TC was 5-11 and 5-8 from three. no two's

3. KJ was better from 3 then he was from two 3-9 and 3-7 from three. no two's

4. Evans was 1-10. Really need him to step up on both ends of the floor.

5. JC 1-3.

6. we shot 46% from the three line.

7. Clark defended Ojeleye very well. The guy who hurt us was Sterling Brown.

If I am coaching SMU no way do I not double Washington and Clark. To win this game we have to have our guards pick it up. Evans need to shake the remains of his slump and have a game. TC and KJ need to shoot well and JC needs to have a good game on the road. We need to use the pump fake to get in the lane and draw and dish or be hot from the three line. We also were our rebounded by 10 last game. Need to reverse that this game.

 

[rogerOH]

To win this game Jacob Evans has to have a dominant offensive game. It's about time for him to have a big game 25+ points. I wish Evans had some of Cumberland's aggressiveness- not to mention his ball fakes and change of speed. Cumberland's the best on the team with his pump fake' Evan's, might be the worst. That's how JC gets around people.

 

[Garybearcat]

Sorry nerd-bashers, but I'm basing my prediction on the law of averages. Whether you believe in "luck" or not, KenPom has UC as the 58th luckiest team out of 351. SMU is 205th. We've won a LOT of close games this year. I know you can attribute that to strong leadership and playing clutch down the stretch, but it's impossible to win every close game you play in. That just doesn't happen.

I think it'll be a hell of a game, and we'll be right with them from tip to finish. But I'll take SMU, 63-61. Praying I'm wrong.

My opinion you make your own luck. Computers can't measure how much you really just hate losing. It's obvious our guys hate to lose.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Coach Cronin Previews SMU

 

[Nayers]

To win this game Jacob Evans has to have a dominant offensive game. It's about time for him to have a big game 25+ points. I wish Evans had some of Cumberland's aggressiveness- not to mention his ball fakes and change of speed. Cumberland's the best on the team with his pump fake' Evan's, might be the worst. That's how JC gets around people.

I don't know man, KJ's pump fake is pretty bad too haha

Is it me or is Evans doing too much of the Shaq Thomas when he has the ball? Dribble side to side going no where. I love Cumberland's ability to make a move naturally, no unnecessary movement for the most part.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I don't know man, KJ's pump fake is pretty bad too haha

Is it me or is Evans doing too much of the Shaq Thomas when he has the ball? Dribble side to side going no where. I love Cumberland's ability to make a move naturally, no unnecessary movement for the most part.

It's not just you. It's like he's so focused on not settling for jumpers that he feels like he needs to get to the hoop all the time. But that's just not possible in D1 basketball. Funny thing is, his points at the hoop last game were straight line cuts with someone else setting him up.

 

[rogerOH]

Loved Clark's pump fake on Tacko- wished he did more of that.

 

[UCalum08]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400916580

Looking at the box score from our game with SMU a couple of things really stand out.

1. Clark and Washington were a combined 13 -16 from the field and 3-4 from three. I have to believe SMU will be doubling the post every time the ball goes into the paint. they will also try to keep it from getting there.

2. TC was 5-11 and 5-8 from three. no two's

3. KJ was better from 3 then he was from two 3-9 and 3-7 from three. no two's

4. Evans was 1-10. Really need him to step up on both ends of the floor.

5. JC 1-3.

6. we shot 46% from the three line.

7. Clark defended Ojeleye very well. The guy who hurt us was Sterling Brown.

If I am coaching SMU no way do I not double Washington and Clark. To win this game we have to have our guards pick it up. Evans need to shake the remains of his slump and have a game. TC and KJ need to shoot well and JC needs to have a good game on the road. We need to use the pump fake to get in the lane and draw and dish or be hot from the three line. We also were our rebounded by 10 last game. Need to reverse that this game.

Good breakdown Waite. To add a fact during that game was we never were in foul trouble. I think we only had 2-3 team fouls at the end of the 2nd half. That really helped us in the final possession because we were able to keep fouling them to essentially run the clock out.

I think with the intense environment, the refs will be blowing their whistle a little more, most likely not in our favor.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400916580

Looking at the box score from our game with SMU a couple of things really stand out.

1. Clark and Washington were a combined 13 -16 from the field and 3-4 from three. I have to believe SMU will be doubling the post every time the ball goes into the paint. they will also try to keep it from getting there.

2. TC was 5-11 and 5-8 from three. no two's

3. KJ was better from 3 then he was from two 3-9 and 3-7 from three. no two's

4. Evans was 1-10. Really need him to step up on both ends of the floor.

5. JC 1-3.

6. we shot 46% from the three line.

7. Clark defended Ojeleye very well. The guy who hurt us was Sterling Brown.

If I am coaching SMU no way do I not double Washington and Clark. To win this game we have to have our guards pick it up. Evans need to shake the remains of his slump and have a game. TC and KJ need to shoot well and JC needs to have a good game on the road. We need to use the pump fake to get in the lane and draw and dish or be hot from the three line. We also were our rebounded by 10 last game. Need to reverse that this game.

Definitely gotta go right at them since their lack of depth makes them less aggressive for fear of foul trouble.