Top 25/KenPom/RPI/BPI

[jacobkdoyle]

Idk we should finish the regular season undefeated, the only team ahead of us that can confidently say that is gonzaga, I still think if we rune table and win conference tournament we can get a 3 seed

It would look really weird for a 31-3 team to be a 4 seed. Especially as Conference reg season and Tourney champs.

 

[cincrulz11]

It was a big drop but we were too high anyway. I feel like this is our proper ranking, polls suck but we seem to be 18-22 in about everything.


SMU is really really good, I'd like to see them again on a neutral court though!

 

[GarradJ21]

It would look really weird for a 31-3 team to be a 4 seed. Especially as Conference reg season and Tourney champs.

Yeah, really think about that, that is awful if that's a 4 seed.

 

[mdchick]

It would look really weird for a 31-3 team to be a 4 seed. Especially as Conference reg season and Tourney champs.

Exactly and you have to figure only 6 teams from the power conferences have a chance to go undefeated and that's a huge IF that all 6 power conferences have a team that goes undefeated (the only 2 teams I can picture doing that are Villanova and Oregon so there should be a lot of loses from teams ahead of us to come specifically in the acc.

 

[cincrulz11]

Yeah, really think about that, that is awful if that's a 4 seed.

It's a strange year though, like I said when the top 4 seeds were announced, its hard to claim we deserve to be higher than any of them. There aren't any exceptional teams, but 1-25 seems pretty strong this year.

 

[justinhub2003]

Idk we should finish the regular season undefeated, the only team ahead of us that can confidently say that is gonzaga, I still think if we rune table and win conference tournament we can get a 3 seed

Finishing the season undefeated would give us 5 top 50 wins (Houston 2x, Xavier, Iowa state, smu). And that's counting on Houston staying in the top 50 , they are 48 right now and have to play UC and smu still.

We have nothing that moves the needle.

We need to hope we win out, then get a shot at smu against to give us 6 wins in the top 50. That would move the needle but very much out of our control

 

[mdchick]

Finishing the season undefeated would give us 5 top 50 wins (Houston 2x, Xavier, Iowa state, smu). And that's counting on Houston staying in the top 50 , they are 48 right now and have to play UC and smu still.

We have nothing that moves the needle.

We need to hope we win out, then get a shot at smu against to give us 6 wins in the top 50. That would move the needle but very much out of our control

The argument then becomes does a bad win count less than a good loss. I would have to assume the rest of the teams aside from south Florida are in the top 100, but if we do in fact go undefeated the rest of the teams in front of us will not.

 

[justinhub2003]

Ok I'm fairly certain, winning out doesn't move the needle much. The committee has shown they value top 50 wins over anything else. Doesn't matter how many you lose or win, it's all about quality wins. Gonzaga being the 4th best 1 seed should tell you that.

So I just went through and listed the top 50 wins each team ranked 11-19 has (using kenpom): it's not looking good for us. We can't even catch some of the teams ahead of us bc we don't have the opportunity to. We have 1 borderline top 50 game left and that's Houston. That gives us 5 max.

We're not gonna get a 4 seed. So don't get your hopes up. in my opinion we get a top 5 seed at best. What does it mean though ? Nothing. The difference between a 13 and 12 seed is not huge. We still need to answer the bell.
Our best hope is UK collapses:

11: Wisconsin: 7
12: duke: 7
13: UK : 3
14: Virginia: 6
15: Florida: 5
16: Purdue: 5
17: Florida state: 9
18: UC: 4
19:SMU: 3


We can't beat Virginia, Wisconsin, Florida state and we can only tie Florida and Purdue.

Smu can only match us.

But keep in mind this relies heavy on Houston not shitting the bed. If they do. We're f'd

 

[GarradJ21]

Ok I'm fairly certain, winning out doesn't move the needle much. The committee has shown they value top 50 wins over anything else. Doesn't matter how many you lose or win, it's all about quality wins. Gonzaga being the 4th best 1 seed should tell you that.

So I just went through and listed the top 50 wins each team ranked 11-19 has (using kenpom): it's not looking good for us. We can't even catch some of the teams ahead of us bc we don't have the opportunity to. We have 1 borderline top 50 game left and that's Houston. That gives us 5 max.

We're not gonna get a 4 seed. So don't get your hopes up. in my opinion we get a top 5 seed at best. What does it mean though ? Nothing. The difference between a 13 and 12 seed is not huge. We still need to answer the bell.
Our best hope is UK collapses:

11: Wisconsin: 7
12: duke: 7
13: UK : 3
14: Virginia: 6
15: Florida: 5
16: Purdue: 5
17: Florida state: 9
18: UC: 4
19:SMU: 3


We can't beat Virginia, Wisconsin, Florida state and we can only tie Florida and Purdue.

Smu can only match us.

But keep in mind this relies heavy on Houston not shitting the bed. If they do. We're f'd

I do not agree. 31-3 is not a 5 seed. I'm sorry.

 

[justinhub2003]

I do not agree. 31-3 is not a 5 seed. I'm sorry.

31-3 with just 3 top 50 wins is not impressive. It's mid major impressive. Not high major. If you win 31 games in any other power league, you then have 9-11 top 50 wins.

We were just 22-2 and was not a 4 seed; what makes you think blowing our last chance at a quality win is going to move us up?

I'm full on homer for UC . But I'm setting expectations here. Like I'm not making this stuff up. The committee has shown us what they value. We don't have enough of it.

Add in that we are one of the few teams where our metrics don't match our ranking. Kenpom had us #21 and we were ranked 11th, now we're 21 and ranked 18th which is closer to our computer numbers.

I'd being willing to throw down a bet that we don't get a 4 seed. It's just the cost of being in a bad conference in a down year and in a year where the top 3 power conferences are so good

 

[mdchick]

Ok I'm fairly certain, winning out doesn't move the needle much. The committee has shown they value top 50 wins over anything else. Doesn't matter how many you lose or win, it's all about quality wins. Gonzaga being the 4th best 1 seed should tell you that.

So I just went through and listed the top 50 wins each team ranked 11-19 has (using kenpom): it's not looking good for us. We can't even catch some of the teams ahead of us bc we don't have the opportunity to. We have 1 borderline top 50 game left and that's Houston. That gives us 5 max.

We're not gonna get a 4 seed. So don't get your hopes up. in my opinion we get a top 5 seed at best. What does it mean though ? Nothing. The difference between a 13 and 12 seed is not huge. We still need to answer the bell.
Our best hope is UK collapses:

11: Wisconsin: 7
12: duke: 7
13: UK : 3
14: Virginia: 6
15: Florida: 5
16: Purdue: 5
17: Florida state: 9
18: UC: 4
19:SMU: 3


We can't beat Virginia, Wisconsin, Florida state and we can only tie Florida and Purdue.

Smu can only match us.

But keep in mind this relies heavy on Houston not shitting the bed. If they do. We're f'd

What about all of those teams losing though... if you have 7 losses you still have 7 losses regardless of quality wins

 

[justinhub2003]

I mean you can say we're 31-3 and that makes us a 4 seed. But if we're living in a bubble. We're not though. For us to be a 4 seed, some one else has to completely collapse.

Kentucky is our best bet but we'd have to hope Florida stars does the same. We also need to hope a team like creighton doesn't catch fire and win our because they have the resume to steal our 4 seed bid.

We are in the drivers seat for a 5 seed. Maybe if a few teams crash we sneak in

 

[justinhub2003]

What about all of those teams losing though... if you have 7 losses you still have 7 losses regardless of quality wins

The committee has shown they care more about wins than losses.

And if your in the ACC, they don't even have a such thing as bad losses

 

[GarradJ21]

31-3 with just 3 top 50 wins is not impressive. It's mid major impressive. Not high major. If you win 31 games in any other power league, you then have 9-11 top 50 wins.

We were just 22-2 and was not a 4 seed; what makes you think blowing our last chance at a quality win is going to move us up?

I'm full on homer for UC . But I'm setting expectations here. Like I'm not making this stuff up. The committee has shown us what they value. We don't have enough of it.

Add in that we are one of the few teams where our metrics don't match our ranking. Kenpom had us #21 and we were ranked 11th, now we're 21 and ranked 18th which is closer to our computer numbers.

I'd being willing to throw down a bet that we don't get a 4 seed. It's just the cost of being in a bad conference in a down year and in a year where the top 3 power conferences are so good

I get what youre saying and I know youre just trying to be a realist. But I don't see it. And not our only blown chance. SMU in conference tourney. and maybe Houston 2 more times? I'd bet for sure if we were 31-3 we would be a 4 seed or better.

Hopefully we will actually get the chance to see whose right.

 

[mdchick]

Duke lousiville Virginia florida state and North Carolina at least.... at least one of those teams is going to have 7 losses there is no way they get in front of use with 7 losses. Idc how many quality wins they have.

 

[justinhub2003]

Duke lousiville Virginia florida state and North Carolina at least.... at least one of those teams is going to have 7 losses there is no way they get in front of use with 7 losses. Idc how many quality wins they have.

I'd bet you 50 bucks every single one of those teams has a higher seed than us.

If they protect home court and only lose on the road, it's all good for them.

 

[justinhub2003]

By the way though; none of it matters.

The difference between a 4 and 5 seed is not much.

I think UC is good enough for a 4 seed, I'm just going by the standard the committee set on Saturday

 

[mdchick]

If we are 31-3 and Virginia is 24-9 and they are ranked ahead of us I'd flip my shit, and Virginia has to play unc 2s duke and Pitt Miami and nc state they would be lucky to go 3-3 im telling you the acc will have a bunch of teams between the 4-8 seeds cuz they will beat eachother up they won't have a choice to give teams with 7-8 losses a 3 seed it's never happened before it won't happen now

 

[UCBearcats]

We have 6 games left and then the conference tourney. If we lose one of these remaining games we might be talking about a 7 or an 8 seed.

Let just win out and win the conference tourney and see what happens. It's not that far fetched we could lose one more game and lose in the conference tourney. A 5 loss UC team might be looking at n 8 or a 9. Too much basketball left to be making bold predictions about where we're going to land.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

By the way though; none of it matters.

The difference between a 4 and 5 seed is not much.

I think UC is good enough for a 4 seed, I'm just going by the standard the committee set on Saturday

Agreed.