UConn

[jacobkdoyle]

I cannot believe how much this board is melting down. I feel like I can't even be disappointed in my team because I'm too busy listening to you guys actually freak out

Here's one way of looking at it:

We got 5 points in 49 minutes out of Jenifer, Moore, Williams, Scott, Brooks, and Nsoseme. So the other players needed to score at a 96 points per 40 pace during 75% of the game to give us enough to beat Wichita State. Does that seem realistic? The 5 points in 49 minutes does, but does putting all that on our other guys make sense? It's about the approach. Washington and Broome are flat out better basketball players than Jenifer, Brooks, and Nsoseme. They shouldn't be nearly 50/50 splitting minutes with those guys in our biggest games. It should be about 60 minutes for Washington and Broome combined against those kind of teams. Or else we have no chance. And maybe we don't anyway. But we've never gone out in the tournament guns blazing with 5 guys who can score. I want to see what that'd be like to legitimately play 5 guys who can score together and see where that gets us. Playing multiple guys at once who score 0 against good offenses has never done it for us before. It won't start now.

Obviously different strategies work against different teams. But it's painfully obvious that whenever we play a good offensive team, we come up short on scoring. So our coach going out of his way to limit our scoring punch is insane. But it's what has happened and there has been nothing that makes me think it will change. So pray to God we play Tennessee or Clemson or someone in the 2nd round. Bc that's our only hope.

It's not too late. But guys like Marvin Lewis and Mick Cronin don't know how to leave their comfort zone. At the end of the day, they do it the way they do it. So no one should be surprised when the same thing happens over and over. The difference is this year we can put out a sick lineup if we want. But we don't want to. It'd be too uncomfortable for the coach. He under no circumstance believes in winning that way. To the point where he won't even try it. And that's where we're at. Hope to God we get a good draw and MAYBE we can get to the Sweet 16.

 

[Alum2013]

Almost every team that everyone thinks is "better than us," has lost two games in a row, have worse losses than us. Yeah they might have 1 or 2 better wins, but they probably had 5 more chances at them.

The difference is they have all done something in March over the past 7 years indicating they have the ability to go on a run and not just beat up cupcakes before getting bounced in the dance because their way doesn't work against good teams but refuse to change. Run on sentences biznitches.

Keep on keeping on with the blinders buddy.

 

[Patrick Bateman]

That is a great post Jacob

 

[sedziobs]

We got 5 points in 49 minutes out of Jenifer, Moore, Williams, Scott, Brooks, and Nsoseme. So the other players needed to score at a 96 points per 40 pace during 75% of the game to give us enough to beat Wichita State. Does that seem realistic?

Very strange logic. Those players weren't playing at the same time. If they were, they probably would have scored more than 5 points in 10 minutes of game time. You could analyze any team and come up with seemingly unrealistic stats like that if you remove players who don't score.

Houston got 6 points in 62 minutes from Robinson, Zanna, White, and VanBeck. So the other players needed to score at a 87 points per 40 pace during 70% of the game to beat Cincinnati? Does that seem realistic?

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Very strange logic. Those players weren't playing at the same time. If they were, they probably would have scored more than 5 points in 10 minutes of game time. You could analyze any team and come up with seemingly unrealistic stats like that if you remove players who don't score.

Houston got 6 points in 62 minutes from Robinson, Zanna, White, and VanBeck. So the other players needed to score at a 87 points per 40 pace during 70% of the game to beat Cincinnati? Does that seem realistic?

I'm just referencing per/40 production. Strange way to look at it, sure. Just breaking it down in a way that emphasizes the point that going with guys who can't score isn't the answer against good offenses.

And yeah that's much more realistic, especially for a team like Houston. It's a better scenario for a worse overall team.

Also, might want to double check the math. I think they'd need to be at an 82 point pace to get to the 63 to beat us. Doesn't really make your point bc it's way different.

 

[Quadri's #1 fan]

I cannot believe how much this board is melting down. I feel like I can't even be disappointed in my team because I'm too busy listening to you guys actually freak out

This is a Cincinnati sports team, and as we know Cincinnati sports fans are bandwagon fans at their best. When things go well everyone thinks we're amazing, but then we lose two extremely close games against two NCAA tournament teams. It's all doom and gloom after losses. There is no glass half full apparently.

 

[sedziobs]

Strange way to look at it, sure.

I would call it mathturbation. You're reaching for a point using nonsensical methods. Points per 40 minutes for a subset of players isn't going to tell you anything useful.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I would call it mathturbation. You're reaching for a point using nonsensical methods. Points per 40 minutes for a subset of players isn't going to tell you anything useful.

Again, just emphasizing how much of a burden is on our best players when you have guys giving you nothing eating up so many minutes.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Again, just emphasizing how much of a burden is on our best players when you have guys giving you nothing eating up so many minutes.

If we are playing a team that struggles to score, we're fine. We are made to beat those teams. It all comes down to the teams that can score 75+ on us. What are we doing to show we can beat those teams? Broome and Washington have only combined for 50 minutes (51) 1 time in our 4 losses. It's a recipe to come up short.

 

[sedziobs]

Also, might want to double check the math. I think they'd need to be at an 82 point pace to get to the 63 to beat us. Doesn't really make your point bc it's way different.

I just used the 67 they scored. It doesn't really matter because it's a meaningless number. Might as well keep subtracting players. Take out Clark and Washington, and you get Evans, Cumberland and Broome needing to score 113 points per 40 minute pace.

Using your method, Trae Young scored 232 points per 40 minutes pace against Baylor if you exclude everyone else. That doesn't tell you anything useful.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I just used the 67 they scored. It doesn't really matter because it's a meaningless number. Might as well keep subtracting players. Take out Clark and Washington, and you get Evans, Cumberland and Broome needing to score 113 points per 40 minute pace.

Using your method, Trae Young scored 232 points per 40 minutes pace against Baylor if you exclude everyone else. That doesn't tell you anything useful.

Yes thank you.

Never said "Behold the end all and be all stat". Just breaking it down in a different way.

Point is, we need 75+ at absolute minimum against these top offenses. When 50 of your 200 minutes result in virtually no offensive production, it puts a lot on the other guys. Broome and Washington average 38 minutes of bench time combined in losses. You cut that number in half and you eat into the nothingness that Jenifer, Brooks, and Nsoseme provide.

 

[justinhub2003]

i guess Im so down about the rest of the regular season because we really won't get to know if we've turned a corner until we play in a single elimination game.

If we Crush UCONN and look dominant, it won't mean much
If we crush tulsa on our senior night, it wont mean were good
IF we crush a fiesty Tulane team on the road, it won't mean much


Then the last game is huge but we could play insanely good and still lose. Will it mean we turn a corner or will it just mean we stepped up for a night and again came up short. The only way to prove were a legit team is to beat WSU on senior night and man, thats an insanely tough task.

Like I personally won't give 2 craps if we win the next 2 games and 3 teams lose and were back in the top 10 in the polls, because it will feel like were a fraud. We have 1 game left to validate being a top 15 team. And it feels like David vs Goliath (especially if WSU plays as tough as we do on senior nights).


I've reverted from guard optimism with this team, to flat out "show me why I should believe in you". I haven't given up on them, but they have some proving left to do for both themselves and to fans of college basketball.

 

[Jon Rycek]

Here's one way of looking at it:

We got 5 points in 49 minutes out of Jenifer, Moore, Williams, Scott, Brooks, and Nsoseme. So the other players needed to score at a 96 points per 40 pace during 75% of the game to give us enough to beat Wichita State. Does that seem realistic? The 5 points in 49 minutes does, but does putting all that on our other guys make sense? It's about the approach. Washington and Broome are flat out better basketball players than Jenifer, Brooks, and Nsoseme. They shouldn't be nearly 50/50 splitting minutes with those guys in our biggest games. It should be about 60 minutes for Washington and Broome combined against those kind of teams. Or else we have no chance. And maybe we don't anyway. But we've never gone out in the tournament guns blazing with 5 guys who can score. I want to see what that'd be like to legitimately play 5 guys who can score together and see where that gets us. Playing multiple guys at once who score 0 against good offenses has never done it for us before. It won't start now.

Obviously different strategies work against different teams. But it's painfully obvious that whenever we play a good offensive team, we come up short on scoring. So our coach going out of his way to limit our scoring punch is insane. But it's what has happened and there has been nothing that makes me think it will change. So pray to God we play Tennessee or Clemson or someone in the 2nd round. Bc that's our only hope.

It's not too late. But guys like Marvin Lewis and Mick Cronin don't know how to leave their comfort zone. At the end of the day, they do it the way they do it. So no one should be surprised when the same thing happens over and over. The difference is this year we can put out a sick lineup if we want. But we don't want to. It'd be too uncomfortable for the coach. He under no circumstance believes in winning that way. To the point where he won't even try it. And that's where we're at. Hope to God we get a good draw and MAYBE we can get to the Sweet 16.

I can agree with some of this. And maybe Mick needs to keep evolving, he's said he is and has proven to be recruiting better offensive players. But like I said before. How did mick get his start? As a defensive coach.. so back against the wall he tends to revert to that, as I'm sure almost all of us would. It's really easy to look from the outside and tell someone to change, it's a lot harder to actually do it. I'm not using this as an excuse in anyway, but just an understand of why. But I think it's clear he is trying, and maybe year by year or a leap here n there things will change. I always expect him to emphasis defense, and it's clear you can be a top rated team through defense (Virginia) and to say teams are gonna score 75+ against anyway, tell that to Duke and all the other high powered ACC offenses Virginia shut down this year. He is making mistakes sitting Washington, I've said that from day 1, I don't think it's a grudge; but for some reason he tends to pull Washington way to quickly sometimes, and the same has been for broome all year. I still think we can beat good offensive teams and I think we can win big games. I still feel as if a tourney run is very favorable. We have great, elite players; whether or not some of you are willing to admit that anymore or not, idk.

 

[Jon Rycek]

The difference is they have all done something in March over the past 7 years indicating they have the ability to go on a run and not just beat up cupcakes before getting bounced in the dance because their way doesn't work against good teams but refuse to change. Run on sentences biznitches.

Keep on keeping on with the blinders buddy.

Show me... ALL ten teams in front of us have done something in March... SHOW ME

 

[Jon Rycek]

I just used the 67 they scored. It doesn't really matter because it's a meaningless number. Might as well keep subtracting players. Take out Clark and Washington, and you get Evans, Cumberland and Broome needing to score 113 points per 40 minute pace.

Using your method, Trae Young scored 232 points per 40 minutes pace against Baylor if you exclude everyone else. That doesn't tell you anything useful.

But stats..

 

[Alum2013]

Show me... ALL ten teams in front of us have done something in March... SHOW ME

It's annoying that I have to waste my time proving I'm right just because you have poor basketball knowledge and apparently live in a UC vacuum where you don't pay attention to other teams play.

#1 Virginia - Elite 8 last year.

#2 Michigan State - Final 4 in 2010 and 2015. Elite 8 in 2014.

#3 Villanova - National champion

#4 Xavier - Sweet 16 in 2010, 2012, 2015 and elite 8 in 2017.

#5 Duke - National Champ 2010 and 2015, Elite 8 in 2013.

#6 Gonzaga - Nat. Runner up 2017, Elite 8 2015, Sweet 16

#7 Texas Tech - Feel good story, who really is talking about them when discussing the "good teams"?

#8 Kansas - Nat. Runner up 2012, Elite 8 2011, 2016, 2017.

#9 Purdue - Sweet 16 in 2010 and 2017.

#10 North Carolina - National Champions 2017, Nat. Runner up 2016, Elite
8 in 2011 and 2012.

And then us...Sweet 16 in 2012. So yea, we have the worst resume and have done nothing in 5 years.

 

[Jon Rycek]

It's annoying that I have to waste my time proving I'm right just because you have poor basketball knowledge and apparently live in a UC vacuum where you don't pay attention to other teams play.

#1 Virginia - Elite 8 last year.

#2 Michigan State - Final 4 in 2010 and 2015. Elite 8 in 2014.

#3 Villanova - National champion

#4 Xavier - Sweet 16 in 2010, 2012, 2015 and elite 8 in 2017.

#5 Duke - National Champ 2010 and 2015, Elite 8 in 2013.

#6 Gonzaga - Nat. Runner up 2017, Elite 8 2015, Sweet 16

#7 Texas Tech - Feel good story, who really is talking about them when discussing the "good teams"?

#8 Kansas - Nat. Runner up 2012, Elite 8 2011, 2016, 2017.

#9 Purdue - Sweet 16 in 2010 and 2017.

#10 North Carolina - National Champions 2017, Nat. Runner up 2016, Elite
8 in 2011 and 2012.

And then us...Sweet 16 in 2012. So yea, we have the worst resume and have done nothing in 5 years.

So Virginia got one game further than us, Texas tech has done nothing, Purdue has had one sweet 16 in the same amount of time as us. gonzaga was last years run away from being in the same discussion and Xavier who's tournament success has been very luck of the draw. And then you have 5 perennial favorites who get 3 top 100 guys minimum every year. I understand basketball just fine, I do appreciate your concern however. You're judging this years teams on what they have done in the past, with mostly guys that don't play on any of those teams anymore, besides a few exceptions. We still have a team that can win in the tourney. I guess we all forgot how much jake stepped up at the end of last season, he certainly hasn't played that way as of late. Don't you think him turning it on getting 17-18pts might make a huge difference. Don't you think our guys can get it together a little better. There is just no reason to me, other than outright panic because we barely lost a couple games to very good teams. Kenpom isn't just made up, we are #5 for a reason, we are still very high in all the advanced metrics. This team is GOOD, stop doubting our coach and our kids so much, that's all.

 

[cincrulz11]

#3 Villanova - National champion

they truly are proof that a lot of it is luck and match ups.


nova made the national championship game in 2009.


the next 6 years they missed the tournament once, went out round 1 2 times, and went out round 2 3 times.


and then won it in 2016. and followed that by going out in round 2 last year.

 

[Jon Rycek]

they truly are proof that a lot of it is luck and match ups.


nova made the national championship game in 2009.


the next 6 years they missed the tournament once, went out round 1 2 times, and went out round 2 3 times.


and then won it in 2016. and followed that by going out in round 2 last year.

People still like to deny how important who you play is. Or just luck of the draw sometimes.

 

[cincrulz11]

People still like to deny how important who you play is. Or just luck of the draw sometimes.

or a team just gets really hot at the right time. Nova shot 36.2% from 3 as a team that year.


but in the tournament they were 56-112 50% exactly. and that includes a 4-18 game vs kansas.