UC's Tourny Bubble

[Thegreatone]

Many are calling yesterdays victory a tournament clinching win. I disagree.

I believe we will be in a good spot on March 9th regardless of what happens this upcoming week. But we are not a lock IMO. We are not a lock because we have some terrible numbers. Some people will try to use this as a tool to use agaisnt us.

For example:

USA today has UC as the last team in the field after the Marquette win.

Jerry Palm has us in the "In for now category". Probably has us in front of 8 or so teams.

Joe Lunurdi will have us in and probably ahead of 12 teams and damn near off the bubble.

The point is that there are a ton of difference opinions on the bearcats. People arent sure how to use the OOC SOS and bad losses.

I believe with another win verse Nova or first round of BET we will be a lock.

RPI 65
SOS 100

These are two measues that many many MANY look at FIRST when considering teams.

 

[bearcat jeff]

Many are calling yesterdays victory a tournament clinching win. I disagree.

I believe we will be in a good spot on March 9th regardless of what happens this upcoming week. But we are not a lock IMO. We are not a lock because we have some terrible numbers. Some people will try to use this as a tool to use agaisnt us.

For example:

USA today has UC as the last team in the field after the Marquette win.

Jerry Palm has us in the "In for now category". Probably has us in front of 8 or so teams.

Joe Lunurdi will have us in and probably ahead of 12 teams and damn near off the bubble.

The point is that there are a ton of difference opinions on the bearcats. People arent sure how to use the OOC SOS and bad losses.

I believe with another win verse Nova or first round of BET we will be a lock.

RPI 65
SOS 100

These are two measues that many many MANY look at FIRST when considering teams.

I think UC is in but let's erase doubt and beat Nova. Winning record against ranked teams, top 50 and top 25 rpi teams. OOC is the one glaring weakness. Will they consider Parker was out early?

 

[cincycpaw]

Will they consider Parker was out early?

I doubt it. It shouldn't matter with that schedule. It's not like we were missing Gates.

All I know is, I wouldn't want to match up against the Bearcats in the 1st round of the NCAA tournament unless I was a team with a terrific press.

 

[bearcat jeff]

Truly believe UC, when motivated, can play with any team I've watched this season. I would agree with you that no team will want to play them if they are a high seed.

 

[Thegreatone]

USA writer told me that bearcats are last team in because of their OOC SOS and bad losses. She cited Colorado last year. You may find this interesting:

Colorado Buffaloes (20-13, 8-8 Big 12; RPI: 66; SOS: 70)

What the committee would say: "Colorado's nonconference schedule ranked No. 331 in the nation. Without the 10 wins Colorado got against sub-150 RPI teams -- which included plenty of sub-200 and sub-300 teams, too -- the Buffaloes would be 10-13 overall. We like to reward teams for going out and playing teams in the nonconference, even if they don't win. We also really like the RPI, and Colorado's was 66. That might make very little sense to you but makes plenty of sense in the logic-free land we call the committee room. Sorry, but we think UAB's better. Why is everyone yelling at us?"

What the fans -- OK, pretty much everyone -- would say: "Are you guys kidding? You put UAB and Clemson in the bracket. Guess how many top-50 wins those teams have combined? Do you know? The answer is zero. Guess how many Colorado has? Six. The Buffaloes beat Kansas State three times and beat Texas once. No, the nonconference schedule wasn't pretty. No, the losses at San Francisco, Oklahoma and Iowa State didn't help Colorado. But when you're looking for a team that can be competitive in the NCAA tournament, wouldn't you prefer one whose best wins came against the best teams in its own conference both in the regular season and in the conference tournament? What about UAB's awful résumé makes you think the Blazers belong more than us? It can't be the eye test. It can't be the wins. It has to be RPI, and if it's RPI, that's not good enough. We all promised ourselves there would be no outrage this year, and you somehow pulled it off. Frankly, we're not even mad. We're sort of impressed. And deeply, deeply confused."

 

[bearcat jeff]

USA writer told me that bearcats are last team in because of their OOC SOS and bad losses. She cited Colorado last year. You may find this interesting:

Colorado Buffaloes (20-13, 8-8 Big 12; RPI: 66; SOS: 70)

What the committee would say: "Colorado's nonconference schedule ranked No. 331 in the nation. Without the 10 wins Colorado got against sub-150 RPI teams -- which included plenty of sub-200 and sub-300 teams, too -- the Buffaloes would be 10-13 overall. We like to reward teams for going out and playing teams in the nonconference, even if they don't win. We also really like the RPI, and Colorado's was 66. That might make very little sense to you but makes plenty of sense in the logic-free land we call the committee room. Sorry, but we think UAB's better. Why is everyone yelling at us?"

What the fans -- OK, pretty much everyone -- would say: "Are you guys kidding? You put UAB and Clemson in the bracket. Guess how many top-50 wins those teams have combined? Do you know? The answer is zero. Guess how many Colorado has? Six. The Buffaloes beat Kansas State three times and beat Texas once. No, the nonconference schedule wasn't pretty. No, the losses at San Francisco, Oklahoma and Iowa State didn't help Colorado. But when you're looking for a team that can be competitive in the NCAA tournament, wouldn't you prefer one whose best wins came against the best teams in its own conference both in the regular season and in the conference tournament? What about UAB's awful résumé makes you think the Blazers belong more than us? It can't be the eye test. It can't be the wins. It has to be RPI, and if it's RPI, that's not good enough. We all promised ourselves there would be no outrage this year, and you somehow pulled it off. Frankly, we're not even mad. We're sort of impressed. And deeply, deeply confused."

Since the X game UC is 15-6 with 4 of those losses coming to teams that are tournament likely. This includes wins over Notre Dame, @Georgetown, @UConn, Seton Hall, Louisville, and Marquette. If they are left out the OOC is THE reason. Frankly, and I know there are complaints yearly, if this team is left out they are not trying to put the best at large teams in. I agree a win on the road that drops your rpi a litte lower and a first game BEast tournament win would be optimum to our chances. My fear is, and has been all season, that UC plays down to competition. Again if they play with the focuse of last night every game this wouldn't be an issue. The give away games against SJU, USF, and Rutgers really hurts. But we aren't talking an 8-8 league record either. We are talking 11 maybe 12 wins in a conference that may send 9-10 teams to the tournament with multiple wins over the top half of the league.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Here is all the NCAA committee needs to know. Forget the writers they have no input.

This is from lance Macalister's Blog:
RPI movement
UC climbs from 78 to 69
SOS movement
UC's strength of schedule climbs to 100...better than 244 D-1 teams


UC RPI wins
2 vs Top 25 (#7 Marquette, #10 Georgetown)
6 vs Top 50 (#29 UL, #36 UConn, #44 Notre Dame, #47 Seton Hall


Only 10 teams have MORE Top 50 RPI wins that UC's 6
10 Kansas
9 Michigan St, Michigan
8 Syracuse, Duke, Ohio State, Georgetown
7 Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky

UC has more Top 50 wins than:
North Carolina, Louisville, Purdue, San Diego St, UConn and Kansas St
(All with 5 wins)



Read more: http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog.html#ixzz1nsTv5ROV

 

[ralph1950]

With an RPI of 65 I believe UC is still bubbleiscious. Beat Villanova and win the first BE Tourney game and UC fans can rest easy on Selection Sunday.

 

[User Name:]

Here is all the NCAA committee needs to know. Forget the writers they have no input.

This is from lance Macalister's Blog:
RPI movement
UC climbs from 78 to 69
SOS movement
UC's strength of schedule climbs to 100...better than 244 D-1 teams


UC RPI wins
2 vs Top 25 (#7 Marquette, #10 Georgetown)
6 vs Top 50 (#29 UL, #36 UConn, #44 Notre Dame, #47 Seton Hall


Only 10 teams have MORE Top 50 RPI wins that UC's 6
10 Kansas
9 Michigan St, Michigan
8 Syracuse, Duke, Ohio State, Georgetown
7 Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky

UC has more Top 50 wins than:
North Carolina, Louisville, Purdue, San Diego St, UConn and Kansas St
(All with 5 wins)



Read more: http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog.html#ixzz1nsTv5ROV

Losing to Nova is going to take the RPI exactly where it was before. The 70's. Also the Strength of schedule is going to decrease regardless. A loss to Nova would hurt big time.

So BEAT NOVA AND ERASE ALL DOUBTS

 

[BearcatAlum1]

Cannot compare us to Colorado.

Colorado was 8-8 in the Big12. We are no worse than 11-7 in the BE.....and we played a tough schedule in conference (not USF's schedule).

We SHOULD be a lock. Hands down. The bubble is exceptionally weak.

Win at Nova and it is 100%.

 

[ucdave]

Losing to Nova is going to take the RPI exactly where it was before. The 70's. Also the Strength of schedule is going to decrease regardless. A loss to Nova would hurt big time.

So BEAT NOVA AND ERASE ALL DOUBTS

Exactly why the RPI is terrible. It's 75% who you play and 25% who you beat. I think that's backwards.

 

[ucdave]

With an RPI of 65 I believe UC is still bubbleiscious. Beat Villanova and win the first BE Tourney game and UC fans can rest easy on Selection Sunday.

Bubbleiscious. That's funny. Gave me a good smile this morning.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

IMHO Cats are in now without the Nova Game. Yes, there are blemishes on our resume but not enough to keep us out. We are In. That said, I don't want to lay a egg at Nova or in BE tourney. This team should have swept the last 4 games and been a double bye. They are better than Nova,Marshall,St. Johns and Presy. They need to catch fire aka UCONN last year heading into the Dance. If they bring as much intensity to Nova as they did against Mar. and UL they should tale care of business.

 

[Eternal E]

Cincinnati is a lock

 

[DontMissHim]

UC is in- the bubble is extremely weak, no bubble team will compete with 6 top 50 RPI wins. Every game now is for seeding. Barring a special run in the Big East tournament (which isn't out of the realm of possibility) UC, IMO, will be on the 10 seed line. Which is a heck of a lot better than the 9 seed line.

Right now, only 2 teams are locks for a 1 seed. If UC is on that 8/9 level, I wouldn't be shocked if UK was the 1 seed. (It won't be Syracuse, obviously) Im just curious as how they get seeded (Punished?) with the RPI/SOS. Regardless, UC is in- Mick did a very good job this season.

 

[Eternal E]

UC is in- the bubble is extremely weak, no bubble team will compete with 6 top 50 RPI wins. Every game now is for seeding. Barring a special run in the Big East tournament (which isn't out of the realm of possibility) UC, IMO, will be on the 10 seed line. Which is a heck of a lot better than the 9 seed line.

Right now, only 2 teams are locks for a 1 seed. If UC is on that 8/9 level, I wouldn't be shocked if UK was the 1 seed. (It won't be Syracuse, obviously) Im just curious as how they get seeded (Punished?) with the RPI/SOS. Regardless, UC is in- Mick did a very good job this season.

That is definitely my concern. I would like Cincinnati to be on the 10 seed line or get up to a 7.

 

[lumberjack]

not a bubble/ never was

7 or 8 seed. Terrible college basketball teams this year on the actual bubble and UC is not one of them . Book it.

 

[DontMissHim]

7 or 8 seed. Terrible college basketball teams this year on the actual bubble and UC is not one of them . Book it.

I think they would have to win two games in the big east tournament to get consideration of a 7 seed. Like I said earlier, the committee may punish UC for the OOC/rpi so wherever you may think they deserve to be- expect to be a spot or two worse. Just my opinion.

 

[ucswais]

Interesting comparison to Colorado. They had one of the most bizarre resume's you'll ever see. They essentially got one team's (Kansas State) number and built an entire resume around it. That team was ranked 23 in the RPI which helped a lot.

It definitely gives me concern because I do see the similarities, but honestly Colorado should have been in. The committee made a mistake on them. Does that mean they could make a similar mistake on us? Maybe, but I wouldn't take them leaving out Colorado to mean that our resume isn't good enough. They flat out screwed that one up IMO.

 

[JasonS]

Interesting comparison to Colorado. They had one of the most bizarre resume's you'll ever see. They essentially got one team's (Kansas State) number and built an entire resume around it. That team was ranked 23 in the RPI which helped a lot.

It definitely gives me concern because I do see the similarities, but honestly Colorado should have been in. The committee made a mistake on them. Does that mean they could make a similar mistake on us? Maybe, but I wouldn't take them leaving out Colorado to mean that our resume isn't good enough. They flat out screwed that one up IMO.

Colorado had 6 top 50 wins but 3 came against 1 team. They probably would have been better off losing one of those and beating a crappy team they lost to just so the two wins looked more impressive. It wouldn't shock me if the committee looked at Colorado as having 4 Top 50 wins instead of 6.

UC is different because they beat 6 different teams in the top 50 AND are 6-3 against them.