It seems to me like there is always a big argument about why we should not read into how many stars a recruit has when we are recruiting them. On an individual basis I would say...that is probably a good rule of thumb. On a collective basis I would LOVE to see the numbers.
As a percentage how many 5 star recruits end up being great college players and also moving on to the NBA when compared to 4 stars, 3 stars, and 2 stars? If there was no rhyme or reason to the ratings then there would be no use at all for scouting sites or rankings.
To prove a point...some people will point to the 3 star guy who ended up being awesome and compare them to a 5 star guy that flopped. Wouldn't this be the exception rather than the rule in terms of the % of 3 and 5 star guys who have great impact? I don't know the answer but I am guessing there is a much higher % of 5 star guys than 3 star guys making huge impacts. I mean you only have about 25 or so 5 star guys...maybe 50 or so 4 star guys...and then what 100+ 3 star guys? I would guess the % based on these numbers would be something like 75% of 5 star guys have a big impact. Maybe 50% of 4 star guys, and 25% of 3 star guys...just as a crude example.
I wish people would stop arguing over semantics and just look at the results of the coaches who are able to evaluate the talent and then coach them up. That is to say...can they find the 3 and 4 star guys that will eventually shine above and beyond a 5 star they were looking at or could not pull away from the top programs. Some 5 star guys are based on potential and some 3 star guys are based on production. To be able to distinguish between the two as a coach is the most important thing IMO.