Temple

[TheRealMick]

I like dou over Vogt also, I’m not blind to see though if roles we’re reversed yesterday we probably lose. I just want to win I don’t care who plays or the score. Dou, should’ve been working on his game to play anyway.

 

[Queens_NYC]

I made a spreadsheet with the whole team's +/- for every game but one.

 

[cincyguy13]

I like dou over Vogt also, I’m not blind to see though if roles we’re reversed yesterday we probably lose. I just want to win I don’t care who plays or the score. Dou, should’ve been working on his game to play anyway.

I like Vogt. I like what he brought. Works hard, good teammate, seems like a good kid, just very little limited. I kind of want to just try something different. I’ve seen enough Vogt

 

[skyblade]

I made a spreadsheet with the whole team's +/- for every game but one.

Awesome, thanks! Keith leads us in average +/- on the season (+3.08) - which is no surprise - but MAW in second at 1.75 is a bit of a surprise. Diarra is the only other player on the team (who has played in more than 2 games) with a positive +/-. Eason is 4th with 0.

Vogt's average plus minus on the season is -0.67, while Diarra's is +0.5.

Vogt's worst game in terms of +/- was @UCF, so we will see how it goes today. Pretty much every players best +/- numbers were vs Lipscomb or Furman (except Harvey).

In terms of worst +/- Harvey is a bit surprisingly worst at -3.5 (not counting Rap who was -5) - but as noted he racked up -14 in the two early games against Lipcomb/Furman where most players combined for +15 to +20 over those two games, so it's somewhat early season struggles pulling him down. Mason (-2.2) and Saunder's -1.9 aren't big surprises. DeJulius at -1.17 may be a surprise to some, but considering his shooting it shouldn't be. A guard can only do so much good when he has a poor shooting percentage and a high (for a PG) TO rate.

 

[skyblade]

Now you can say that Diarra's +0.5 is only over 6 games, so still a lot of room for variation, which is true. But it still doesn't answer my question of why doesn't he get more of a chance?

He was better than Vogt at the end of last year, he was better than Vogt against Temple, he has a better average +/- than Vogt. What more does he need to do to get a chance? Rap's average +/- was -7.3 over 6 games when he started game 7 @UCF.

If Diarra averages 15, 20 or 25 minutes and is terrible, fine, I won't criticize Brannen for not playing him and you all will be proven right. But to me, Diarra is a better player than Vogt who Brannen refuses to give a chance.

 

[skyblade]

It's also interesting to see how the perception doesn't always match the +/- number. For example, most fans seem to think Vogt started the season poorly and has improved recently. But over the first 4 games of the season (Lipscomb, Xavier, Furman and Tennessee) Vogt averaged +6 with 3 positive +/- games (+9, +17 and +5), but since then (next 8) he has averaged -4 with only 2 positive +\- games (+1 and +4).

MAW has been questioned by many (including myself) because he doesn't score a ton. But he has only four negative +/- games on the season.

Davenport is perceived as one of our better players (and at an average of -0.58 he's still a bit above average), but has a negative +/-. His is easier to explain though as it's mostly a product of a couple really bad games: -22 @Georgia and -11 @Tennessee.

I suppose that's why it comes do to the eternal question of stats vs eye-test.

 

[Bcatfollower]

It's also interesting to see how the perception doesn't always match the +/- number. For example, most fans seem to think Vogt started the season poorly and has improved recently. But over the first 4 games of the season (Lipscomb, Xavier, Furman and Tennessee) Vogt averaged +6 with 3 positive +/- games (+9, +17 and +5), but since then (next 8) he has averaged -4 with only 2 positive +\- games (+1 and +4).

MAW has been questioned by many (including myself) because he doesn't score a ton. But he has only four negative +/- games on the season.

Davenport is perceived as one of our better players (and at an average of -0.58 he's still a bit above average), but has a negative +/-. His is easier to explain though as it's mostly a product of a couple really bad games: -22 @Georgia and -11 @Tennessee.

I suppose that's why it comes do to the eternal question of stats vs eye-test.

It’s this stat vs the eye test. Not all stats. This stat has to much variability to be overly useful. Also, Brannen is in a no win with Dou. Obviously a highly paid basketball coach as well as the previous coach didn’t think he was good enough to deserve minutes. I would guess that his basketball iq is zero and he isn’t in the right spots in practice. Similar to a quadri Moore

 

[cincyguy13]

Awesome, thanks! Keith leads us in average +/- on the season (+3.08) - which is no surprise - but MAW in second at 1.75 is a bit of a surprise. Diarra is the only other player on the team (who has played in more than 2 games) with a positive +/-. Eason is 4th with 0.

Vogt's average plus minus on the season is -0.67, while Diarra's is +0.5.

Vogt's worst game in terms of +/- was @UCF, so we will see how it goes today. Pretty much every players best +/- numbers were vs Lipscomb or Furman (except Harvey).

In terms of worst +/- Harvey is a bit surprisingly worst at -3.5 (not counting Rap who was -5) - but as noted he racked up -14 in the two early games against Lipcomb/Furman where most players combined for +15 to +20 over those two games, so it's somewhat early season struggles pulling him down. Mason (-2.2) and Saunder's -1.9 aren't big surprises. DeJulius at -1.17 may be a surprise to some, but considering his shooting it shouldn't be. A guard can only do so much good when he has a poor shooting percentage and a high (for a PG) TO rate.

So can we Still blame brannen for maw’s regression? Has he regressed? Who do blame and for what? Let me know. I was told he regressed. This stat that you love, tells me otherwise. What do I go with?

 

[cincyguy13]

It’s this stat vs the eye test. Not all stats. This stat has to much variability to be overly useful. Also, Brannen is in a no win with Dou. Obviously a highly paid basketball coach as well as the previous coach didn’t think he was good enough to deserve minutes. I would guess that his basketball iq is zero and he isn’t in the right spots in practice. Similar to a quadri Moore

I’ve always said that about dou. Coaches want to win more than anything. They would sit their own kids in order to win games. I don’t think it’s a matter of he likes Vogt more, it dou having zero basketball iq and being a complete wildcard. He’s seen dou for 2 years now in practice. He’s well aware what he can do. It’s not a conspiracy

 

[cincyguy13]

Awesome, thanks! Keith leads us in average +/- on the season (+3.08) - which is no surprise - but MAW in second at 1.75 is a bit of a surprise. Diarra is the only other player on the team (who has played in more than 2 games) with a positive +/-. Eason is 4th with 0.

Vogt's average plus minus on the season is -0.67, while Diarra's is +0.5.

Vogt's worst game in terms of +/- was @UCF, so we will see how it goes today. Pretty much every players best +/- numbers were vs Lipscomb or Furman (except Harvey).

In terms of worst +/- Harvey is a bit surprisingly worst at -3.5 (not counting Rap who was -5) - but as noted he racked up -14 in the two early games against Lipcomb/Furman where most players combined for +15 to +20 over those two games, so it's somewhat early season struggles pulling him down. Mason (-2.2) and Saunder's -1.9 aren't big surprises. DeJulius at -1.17 may be a surprise to some, but considering his shooting it shouldn't be. A guard can only do so much good when he has a poor shooting percentage and a high (for a PG) TO rate.

You know this stat isn’t everything, right? Seems like you’re ready to base everything on this

 

[sedziobs]

Before this game Vogt had a season total +/- of 1, and Diarra's was -3. I don't think the Temple game suddenly showed that Diarra is better than Vogt, and before that Vogt was better. There's too much randomness in this stat. Really neither one is very good, but given Diarra's TO and foul rates, I think he would be worse if he played 20+ minutes. Like I've said, he should be getting more than 8 though because the alternative was Banks.

I'll stick with things like ORtg and usage for offense and eye test for defense.

 

[waterhead]

Awesome, thanks! Keith leads us in average +/- on the season (+3.08) - which is no surprise - but MAW in second at 1.75 is a bit of a surprise. Diarra is the only other player on the team (who has played in more than 2 games) with a positive +/-. Eason is 4th with 0.

Vogt's average plus minus on the season is -0.67, while Diarra's is +0.5.

Vogt's worst game in terms of +/- was @UCF, so we will see how it goes today. Pretty much every players best +/- numbers were vs Lipscomb or Furman (except Harvey).

In terms of worst +/- Harvey is a bit surprisingly worst at -3.5 (not counting Rap who was -5) - but as noted he racked up -14 in the two early games against Lipcomb/Furman where most players combined for +15 to +20 over those two games, so it's somewhat early season struggles pulling him down. Mason (-2.2) and Saunder's -1.9 aren't big surprises. DeJulius at -1.17 may be a surprise to some, but considering his shooting it shouldn't be. A guard can only do so much good when he has a poor shooting percentage and a high (for a PG) TO rate.

If you think in terms of sub patterns CJB likes to run the starters for about the first 5-7 minutes and then sub a few guys. So the bench generally gets to play more with bench players than starters. So this could help to explain numbers for guys like Harvey. He has been coming off bench.

That is why I would like to see him start. So he gets more minutes with higher quality players. The stat has limitations which is why it’s important to compare the stat with who is/was on the floor or which teams we were playing. In games against better competition or worse etc etc etc.

 

[waterhead]

If you think in terms of sub patterns CJB likes to run the starters for about the first 5-7 minutes and then sub a few guys. So the bench generally gets to play more with bench players than starters. So this could help to explain numbers for guys like Harvey. He has been coming off bench.

That is why I would like to see him start. So he gets more minutes with higher quality players. The stat has limitations which is why it’s important to compare the stat with who is/was on the floor or which teams we were playing. In games against better competition or worse etc etc etc.

The guys who start every game should have the highest plus minus because they start each half playing along side other starters. If CJB doesn’t sub in either half until 7.5 minutes that would be 15 minutes with all starters that bench players can’t get.

 

[cincyguy13]

Before this game Vogt had a season total +/- of 1, and Diarra's was -3. I don't think the Temple game suddenly showed that Diarra is better than Vogt, and before that Vogt was better. There's too much randomness in this stat. Really neither one is very good, but given Diarra's TO and foul rates, I think he would be worse if he played 20+ minutes. Like I've said, he should be getting more than 8 though because the alternative was Banks.

I'll stick with things like ORtg and usage for offense and eye test for defense.

This Doesn’t fit the narrative though so it can’t be true or we choose not to see it

 

[waterhead]

I hear a lot it’s not who starts that matters but overall minutes played or who finishes. I say I disagree based on the idea that having your best players on the court together as much as possible is the hardest to defend.

 

[skyblade]

It’s this stat vs the eye test. Not all stats. This stat has to much variability to be overly useful. Also, Brannen is in a no win with Dou. Obviously a highly paid basketball coach as well as the previous coach didn’t think he was good enough to deserve minutes. I would guess that his basketball iq is zero and he isn’t in the right spots in practice. Similar to a quadri Moore

Diarra was getting minutes at the end of his Sophomore year with Cronin.

 

[waterhead]

I hear a lot it’s not who starts that matters but overall minutes played or who finishes. I say I disagree based on the idea that having your best players on the court together as much as possible is the hardest to defend.

Another reason I like to start the best 5 players is because the first team usually runs for a minimum of 5 minutes in each half and up to 7.5 minutes. There are 10 -15 minutes a guy like Harvey can’t get back. When you factor in he will also need a break in either half of 2.5 minutes each half that’s another 5 minutes he can’t be on the court capping his minutes at 25 or 20.

I understand it doesn’t always go this way but you put the best 5 out there to start and see who’s hot and then keep them on the floor and take someone else out.

 

[skyblade]

I'm not in love with +/-, but I like looking at the various stats. All of them have their downfalls, ORTG and DRTG for example are based on stats the player puts up, if a player has a major effect on the game that doesn't show up in the stats, it doesn't show up in ORTG. +/- in theory captures more of the impact that can't be accounted for statistically, but also has a larger luck factor (which should even out with a bigger sample size).

Diarra has not played enough minutes for any stat, including fouls to be relevant at this point. Using +/- is just as fair as TO or foul rates based on the limited stats from this year.

The eye-test is variable like with any other test. To me, Diarra clearly outplayed Vogt in the first half and Vogt didn't play all that well in the second.

Brannen claims that Vogt impacts they offense in many ways that don't show up in the stat sheet. But they don't show up in +/- either, so is he actually having an impact? He is -8 on the season and -28 in conference play.

 

[waterhead]

Diarra was getting minutes at the end of his Sophomore year with Cronin.

Who knows why but there are a host of reasons he may not be getting a lot of time. Maybe he’s not boxing out his man, setting bad screens, doesn’t know the plays very well, doesn’t get to the right spots, doesn’t get there on time, etc etc etc. I don’t know the reason(s)...but I can assure you there is at least one.

 

[waterhead]

Switching subjects for a bit. How about that base line hammer dunk from Davenport? There was a foul called before he got there but damn that one surprised me a bit.

Also Keith was up in the rafters off a 3 point miss by MAW that ended up he didn’t get the handle. That would have brought the house down if he could have controlled that ball!