sirthought
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Thanks for those nuggets
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2022-23 Open Thread
- Thread starter Queens_NYC
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Some up and down performances in our conference so far. Temple lost to Wagner at home but then beat Villanova. UCF lost to UNC Asheville and then beat Florida St. USF lost to SE Missouri St and then had a 9 pt halftime lead at Auburn before losing.
Wichita St lost to Alcorn St. Houston and Memphis look to be good as usual.
Wichita St lost to Alcorn St. Houston and Memphis look to be good as usual.
Some up and down performances in our conference so far. Temple lost to Wagner at home but then beat Villanova. UCF lost to UNC Asheville and then beat Florida St. USF lost to SE Missouri St and then had a 9 pt halftime lead at Auburn before losing.
Wichita St lost to Alcorn St. Houston and Memphis look to be good as usual.
Just win the games and keep improving. We could also be UL right now.
solvingbasketball.libsyn.com
Good podcast with Ken Pomeroy. A little discussion near the beginning about Wes taking the timeout technical foul at the end of the X game.
Near the end Ken talks about why plus minus isn't a useful stat. Basically there are too many variables involved, or if you eliminate variables by only using 5 man lineups, there isn't a big enough sample size to compare with other lineups.
Another interesting discussion was how preseason ratings still have predictive value even at the end of the season. Compared to baseball, college basketball has a relatively short 30 game season. The sample is small enough that noise in the season data is significant and many teams will not have reverted to their long term average performance after 30 games. Nate Silver has been using preseason rankings in his NCAA tournament projections because it works better than leaving them out.
Good podcast with Ken Pomeroy. A little discussion near the beginning about Wes taking the timeout technical foul at the end of the X game.
Near the end Ken talks about why plus minus isn't a useful stat. Basically there are too many variables involved, or if you eliminate variables by only using 5 man lineups, there isn't a big enough sample size to compare with other lineups.
Another interesting discussion was how preseason ratings still have predictive value even at the end of the season. Compared to baseball, college basketball has a relatively short 30 game season. The sample is small enough that noise in the season data is significant and many teams will not have reverted to their long term average performance after 30 games. Nate Silver has been using preseason rankings in his NCAA tournament projections because it works better than leaving them out.
Juco guard DaVeon Thomas committed today. 6'0" PG from Kilgore College in Texas. Averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists. 36% from three on 4 attempts per game. Gets to the line 5 times a game and converts 86%.
So now we have our replacements for DDJ and Phinisee with DaVeon and Jizzle coming in. Rayvon will take Ezikpe's scholarship.
So now we have our replacements for DDJ and Phinisee with DaVeon and Jizzle coming in. Rayvon will take Ezikpe's scholarship.
Juco guard DaVeon Thomas committed today. 6'0" PG from Kilgore College in Texas. Averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists. 36% from three on 4 attempts per game. Gets to the line 5 times a game and converts 86%.
So now we have our replacements for DDJ and Phinisee with DaVeon and Jizzle coming in. Rayvon will take Ezikpe's scholarship.
Just need a quality big now and see who sticks around and who is leaving. Thomas and Jizzle seem very much like each other in terms of skill sets. Hopefully they can focus a bit more on assists than they might be used to. If MAW sticks around we should be secure at the 1...and because MAW and Thomas are combos we should have enough options at the 2 as well...considering we have Skillings and Rayvon and Newman etc.
Queens_NYC
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Juco guard DaVeon Thomas committed today. 6'0" PG from Kilgore College in Texas. Averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists. 36% from three on 4 attempts per game. Gets to the line 5 times a game and converts 86%.
So now we have our replacements for DDJ and Phinisee with DaVeon and Jizzle coming in. Rayvon will take Ezikpe's scholarship.
Just need a quality big now and see who sticks around and who is leaving. Thomas and Jizzle seem very much like each other in terms of skill sets. Hopefully they can focus a bit more on assists than they might be used to. If MAW sticks around we should be secure at the 1...and because MAW and Thomas are combos we should have enough options at the 2 as well...considering we have Skillings and Rayvon and Newman etc.
Seems like a great pick-up on all accounts and someone who possesses a lot of the attributes of what we're looking for in a Big 12 guard.
I doubt we win this type of recruiting battle if we were not playing in the Big 12 next season.
All eyes now turn to Bidunga and his recruitment for the next couple months.
Queens_NYC
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Barring an all-out collapse by Tulane this week, there's a 95% chance we are locked into the 4/5 game in next week's AAC quarterfinals.
That game would be played Friday, March 10th at 3 pm on ESPN2.
Here are some games this week that will impact who we play in that match-up.
Thursday, 3/2
Wichita St (8-8) @ Houston
UCF (7-9) @ Temple (9-7)
Sunday, 3/5
USF @ Wichita St (8-8)
Temple (9-7) @ Tulane
ECU @ UCF (7-9)
That game would be played Friday, March 10th at 3 pm on ESPN2.
Here are some games this week that will impact who we play in that match-up.
Thursday, 3/2
Wichita St (8-8) @ Houston
UCF (7-9) @ Temple (9-7)
Sunday, 3/5
USF @ Wichita St (8-8)
Temple (9-7) @ Tulane
ECU @ UCF (7-9)
I think these are the possible scenarios assuming Tulane wins at least one remaining game.
If Temple wins both games, they are the 4 seed and we are the 5. In the following scenarios we are the 4 seed:
Temple will be the 5 if they win one game and WSU loses a game, which is the most likely scenario and could be decided on Thursday. If only UCF and Temple end up 9-9, they will have split the head-to-head, and the tiebreaker would be the record against Houston. Temple has the advantage there.
If only Wichita St and Temple finish 9-9 (or 10-8), Wichita St has the tiebreaker over Temple since the Shockers won the only matchup between the two. Not very likely, since ECU needs to win at UCF or WSU needs to win at Houston.
If there's a 3-way tie at 9-9, UCF wins the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record against the tied teams. Decent chance of this happening, mostly depends on UCF beating Temple.
If there's a 3-way tie at 10-8 between us, Temple, and WSU, we are the 4 seed and Wichita St is the 5. Not likely since WSU has to win at Houston and we have to lose to SMU.
To sum up, we're probably playing Temple, though UCF could sneak in if they close out with 2 wins.
If Temple wins both games, they are the 4 seed and we are the 5. In the following scenarios we are the 4 seed:
Temple will be the 5 if they win one game and WSU loses a game, which is the most likely scenario and could be decided on Thursday. If only UCF and Temple end up 9-9, they will have split the head-to-head, and the tiebreaker would be the record against Houston. Temple has the advantage there.
If only Wichita St and Temple finish 9-9 (or 10-8), Wichita St has the tiebreaker over Temple since the Shockers won the only matchup between the two. Not very likely, since ECU needs to win at UCF or WSU needs to win at Houston.
If there's a 3-way tie at 9-9, UCF wins the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record against the tied teams. Decent chance of this happening, mostly depends on UCF beating Temple.
If there's a 3-way tie at 10-8 between us, Temple, and WSU, we are the 4 seed and Wichita St is the 5. Not likely since WSU has to win at Houston and we have to lose to SMU.
To sum up, we're probably playing Temple, though UCF could sneak in if they close out with 2 wins.
Queens_NYC
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I think these are the possible scenarios assuming Tulane wins at least one remaining game.
If Temple wins both games, they are the 4 seed and we are the 5. In the following scenarios we are the 4 seed:
Temple will be the 5 if they win one game and WSU loses a game, which is the most likely scenario and could be decided on Thursday. If only UCF and Temple end up 9-9, they will have split the head-to-head, and the tiebreaker would be the record against Houston. Temple has the advantage there.
If only Wichita St and Temple finish 9-9 (or 10-8), Wichita St has the tiebreaker over Temple since the Shockers won the only matchup between the two. Not very likely, since ECU needs to win at UCF or WSU needs to win at Houston.
If there's a 3-way tie at 9-9, UCF wins the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record against the tied teams. Decent chance of this happening, mostly depends on UCF beating Temple.
If there's a 3-way tie at 10-8 between us, Temple, and WSU, we are the 4 seed and Wichita St is the 5. Not likely since WSU has to win at Houston and we have to lose to SMU.
To sum up, we're probably playing Temple, though UCF could sneak in if they close out with 2 wins.
Great breakdown.
Although neither is the most likely option, UCF and Wichita St could both also be Houston's first opponent in the quarterfinals as well.
I think Temple needs to lose to UCF tonight for us to still have a shot at the 3 seed, since they have the tiebreaker over us and also in a three-way tie with Tulane. So we need all of these results:
Thursday UCF win at Temple (47%)
Friday ECU win at Tulane (16%)
Sunday UC win over SMU (88%)
Sunday Temple win at Tulane (34%)
2% chance of all those happening.
Thursday UCF win at Temple (47%)
Friday ECU win at Tulane (16%)
Sunday UC win over SMU (88%)
Sunday Temple win at Tulane (34%)
2% chance of all those happening.
Alright, so no chance for the 3 seed anymore after Temple's win.
Now Temple's game at Tulane will determine who we face. I think the winner of that game will be the 3 seed regardless of what happens in our game or Tulane/ECU. We would face the loser.
Now Temple's game at Tulane will determine who we face. I think the winner of that game will be the 3 seed regardless of what happens in our game or Tulane/ECU. We would face the loser.
NIT selection show at 10pm on ESPNU.
Looking at the NCAA bracket, my general rule of .500 in Q1/2 with one or two bad losses as the cut line was pretty good. 78 out of 83 had Rutgers in on Bracketmatrix, but Rutgers was 10-10 in Q1/2 with 4 bad losses. If you have more than 2 bad losses, you better be above .500 in quality games. Nevada replaced them with a 7-8 record in Q1/2 and 2 bad losses. I think they were the only team to make the field with multiple bad losses and a sub-.500 record in quality games. With 0 or 1 bad losses, a team can afford to be a few games under .500 in quality games. There are of course outliers like West Virginia who was 6-14 in Q1/2, but had no bad losses and played 19 Q1 games.
Looking at the NCAA bracket, my general rule of .500 in Q1/2 with one or two bad losses as the cut line was pretty good. 78 out of 83 had Rutgers in on Bracketmatrix, but Rutgers was 10-10 in Q1/2 with 4 bad losses. If you have more than 2 bad losses, you better be above .500 in quality games. Nevada replaced them with a 7-8 record in Q1/2 and 2 bad losses. I think they were the only team to make the field with multiple bad losses and a sub-.500 record in quality games. With 0 or 1 bad losses, a team can afford to be a few games under .500 in quality games. There are of course outliers like West Virginia who was 6-14 in Q1/2, but had no bad losses and played 19 Q1 games.
Pitt was 7-9 in Q1/2 with 2 bad losses. In general avoiding bad losses gives a bit of cushion, but you can still get in with a weak bubble. Not very many bid stealers this year, allowing Pitt and Nevada to sneak in.Nevada replaced them with a 7-8 record in Q1/2 and 2 bad losses. I think they were the only team to make the field with multiple bad losses and a sub-.500 record in quality games.
There are 11 auto bids to the NIT this year out of 32 total, so that leaves 21 spots. On Kenpom we're the 11th best team that didn't make the tournament. The top 16 teams are seeded and will host first round games. We have a good chance to grab one of those spots, and possibly a top 8 seed to potentially host a second round game.
The last time we were in the NIT was 2010 when we beat Damian Lillard and Weber St in the opening round before losing to eventual champions Dayton in round 2.
The last time we were in the NIT was 2010 when we beat Damian Lillard and Weber St in the opening round before losing to eventual champions Dayton in round 2.
Queens_NYC
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We face Virginia Tech on Wednesday as the 4 seed in a bracket with Rutgers.
Good draw. They're a battle-tested but beatable team.
Rutgers would be even tougher should we both win. #5 team in KenPom's AdjD.
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