http://www.frogsowar.com/2016/8/1/12266422/tcu-source-big-12-expansion-is-complicated-at-best
Agreement on Future Members Will Be Tough
In what will be a major surprise to nobody, my source indicated that they are expecting heated debate on each of the perspective new members, with obvious pro/con points for each. In general, my source suggested that while the path to 12 was fairly clear, problems arise when considering options for 13th, 14th, or more members.
Cincinnati, UCONN, and Houston are the leaders in the clubhouse. In fact, my source intimated that Cincinnati was #1 on most lists, but that didn't make it a slam dunk. Who is the 12th? There is a strong push to avoid any more regional abnormalities, i.e. teams that are conference members but are on an island when compared to the rest of the conference's geographic footprint. So, the addition of BYU would have to be accompanied by Colorado State or Boise State, as an example.
The opportunity to add football-only members adds intrigue and complication to the debate as well. The Big 12 could opt to add two members and be a 12-member conference, with one or two football only members in addition. This option, which would likely see Cincinnati and Houston added as the 11th and 12th full-time members, would open a lane for BYU and Boise State to be added for football only. This solves several problems at once. It increases the overall value and size of the conference, adding strong TV inventory across all sports, while adding a few compelling TV match-ups in football as well. Boise State at Texas, OU at BYU, as an example.
But, when it is all said and done, my source believes that simplicity is likely to win out. While some of the bigger solutions may look sexy, the likelihood that eight Big 12 Presidents agree on all the components of a big move is unlikely. As it stands today, Cincinnati is likely the easy 11th member while the debate over the 12th member will center around UCONN and Houston. My source believed, despite reservations, that Houston would win out. Also: "I wouldn't be surprised to see UCONN find a home in a Power 5 conference before the Big 12's process is concluded."
