JasonS
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Yeah but the ACC will be lucky to get 4 this year. And the Big 11 is way overrated but they will probably get 6 in.
Big East Bubble Watch
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Yeah but the ACC will be lucky to get 4 this year. And the Big 11 is way overrated but they will probably get 6 in.
i agree they dont get 11, however this year the chance is greater since there are 68 tournament teams rather than 65 teams last year.
psax889906
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St. John's gets a huge win tonight. They are sitting pretty right now.
BearcatAlum1
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Mark my words: 9-9 in BE will get in this year.
SJU will be the only 8-10 team from the BE to get in...
SJU will be the only 8-10 team from the BE to get in...
psax889906
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I think 9-9 will get in as well, especially if you get one win in the Conference tournament, but I'd really like to see UC have a winning season to silence the critics. Go 10-8 during regular season play and win one game minimum at MSG and you're looking at 24 wins and a top 6 seed.
psax889906
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I honestly think the Big East is looking pretty good for 11 bids right now. The two biggest questions are can Cincinnati finish well and can Marquette boost it's resume. I see Marquette going 4-3 over their final seven and getting to 19 wins before the conference tournament. It may take two wins at MSG to secure a bid.
WVU would be the other team to really look out for as 5 of their last 7 are against ranked opponents including trips to Syracuse and Pitt. They've already lost their last two against Villanova and Pitt. I'm really interested to see if they can do better than 3-4.
WVU would be the other team to really look out for as 5 of their last 7 are against ranked opponents including trips to Syracuse and Pitt. They've already lost their last two against Villanova and Pitt. I'm really interested to see if they can do better than 3-4.
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Who Dey Time
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Posted this at BCN....figure I'll add it to the discussion here:
I think its safe to say that this league is completely unpredictable. Sunday's game will leave UC as high as 5th or as low as 11th in the league. One game....potential seven spot difference in the standings. Five teams currently sit at 6-5 and, IMO, how those five teams finish will determine who and how many from the league go dancing.
In looking at the remaining games for everyone a couple of things struck me.
-UConn could be in for a free fall. Their last six games are Georgetown, at UL, Marquette, at UC, at WVU, Notre Dame. At 6-5 could they become a bubble team if they flounder down the finish. WVU could have the same issue as 5 of their last 7 are against teams currently ranked in the Top-15 and they still have to play at Rutgers.
-Of the so-called bubble teams, Marquette looks to have the most forgiving remaining schedule, if there is such a thing. St. John's looks good right now but they still have to dodge DePaul, USF and at Seton Hall. Any of those three end in a loss and it could spell doom as it would be a 3rd "bad loss."
-I like the position that UC is in. I've always believed that 10-8 would be a NCAA lock, now I'm starting to think that 9-9 plus one Big East Tourney win would do the trick. The opportunity is certainly there, particularly the home games so hopefully this will be the stretch that sends the 'Cats back to the NCAA.
I think its safe to say that this league is completely unpredictable. Sunday's game will leave UC as high as 5th or as low as 11th in the league. One game....potential seven spot difference in the standings. Five teams currently sit at 6-5 and, IMO, how those five teams finish will determine who and how many from the league go dancing.
In looking at the remaining games for everyone a couple of things struck me.
-UConn could be in for a free fall. Their last six games are Georgetown, at UL, Marquette, at UC, at WVU, Notre Dame. At 6-5 could they become a bubble team if they flounder down the finish. WVU could have the same issue as 5 of their last 7 are against teams currently ranked in the Top-15 and they still have to play at Rutgers.
-Of the so-called bubble teams, Marquette looks to have the most forgiving remaining schedule, if there is such a thing. St. John's looks good right now but they still have to dodge DePaul, USF and at Seton Hall. Any of those three end in a loss and it could spell doom as it would be a 3rd "bad loss."
-I like the position that UC is in. I've always believed that 10-8 would be a NCAA lock, now I'm starting to think that 9-9 plus one Big East Tourney win would do the trick. The opportunity is certainly there, particularly the home games so hopefully this will be the stretch that sends the 'Cats back to the NCAA.
Juliepitzer
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I am sticking with my 9. UC among them.
Look for the 10th to be in the "play in game"
Juliepitzer
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Could be. That wouldnt surprise me at all.
bearcat jeff
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Still think 9-10. Whoever finished strong out of UC and Marquette will be the 10th but UC has the advantage and has far less rpi work to do. Sunday's games can't be overstated. UC can essentially call each game left the most important game of the year. Depending on who is included in the win total, I believe 9-9 gets it done for UC. They need to hit a mini run like alot of BEast teams have hit at times. If would help to hit some shots. It gets your energy level up when you're scoring.
At this point, getting back down to 9 means both Marq and UC collapse. While possible in the BE, the fact that they play each other makes it less likely.
I'm sticking with 11 as I have been saying, but considering the unpredictable nature of the finishes for Marq and UC it probably breaks down like this...
11- 49%
10- 40%
9- 10%
8- 1%
Considering I believe Marq and Cincy are about dead even at the moment, that implies that I think UC has about a 70% chance of dancing. If you add in the slight possibility that one of the locks completely imploding the rest of the way, and I could bump it up to 72% for just UC.
Also, someone mentioned the play-in game. Its definitely a possibility for this team. I am far from a conspiracy theorist, but the idea of putting a local team in Dayton probably does have some value to the NCAA. Besides that, the BE could be all over the 4th seeds in this tourney the way it looks now. If so, logistically if UC gets in it will be hard to give them a 13 seed. Plenty of time for that to change though and with the remaining games UC is just as likely to end in the 8/9 range with a few wins.
bearcat jeff
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Rivals new projection has Xavier as a 5 seed, Marquette as a 9 seed and St. Johns as a 10 seed with UC not in. They project 10 teams in from the BEast.
psax889906
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bearcat jeff
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Funny, funny, funny!!! What else am I supposed to do to that other than laugh?
Here's my thing. I have no problem with Xavier making the tournament. I do have issue with them being projected as a 5 seed when their best rpi win is over #44 Georgia and we blow them out by 20. They have beaten nobody that is any good and that's the argument they use to keep UC out? Marquette is 20 points below us in the rpi.
19-5, no bad losses, 2 top 25 rpi wins, 4 of 5 losses on the road. How do you not project UC in if they season ended today.
thats absolute bull. i think marquette slips in at 12 if they do make it. but mark me down as scared about our game at marquette they can score and we cant. i think thats such an important game, a game the comittee will look at when comparing teams and if we lose it will be damaging. but first things first we must win sunday
UCalum08
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While I was watching the Depaul game on TV the other day they showed our resume. Under key losses they had at Syracuse, at Villanova, and West Virginia. Although the loss to WV was not great I could understand that. But, if they honestly can put the other to teams as bad losses really bothers me. I think we might be the only team that gets a negative spin on losing to top 10 teams.
psax889906
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There's a difference between "Key losses" and "Bad losses". I don't think they were saying they were bad losses actually.
UCalum08
Well-known member
Very true. I couldn't remember if it was key or bad due to a little alcohol induced fun. I just focused on the word loss and couldn't believe they listed those teams ha. UC just needs to win! I hoping that alllll those seniors on our team realize that this is it. Now or never. Hopefully they push that sense of the underclassmen because we need them all. I am trying to get a lot of people to Sunday's game, it needs to be packed!