Bracketology

[sedziobs]

but didn't the committee show that they kinda just go by the overall group 1 and 2 wins and didn't really dig too far into where within the group they were?

1. Virginia 7-1, 5-1
2. Villanova 8-1, 5-1
3. Xavier 7-3, 7-0
4. Purdue 5-3, 6-1
5. Auburn 4-3, 5-0
6. Kansas 9-4, 5-1, 1 bad loss
7. Duke 4-4, 4-1
8. Cincinnati 4-2, 7-0
9. Clemson 4-4, 6-0
10. Texas Tech 4-3, 7-1
11. Michigan State 3-2, 5-1
12. North Carolina 7-5, 5-1, 1 bad loss
13. Tennessee 4-6, 5-0
14. Ohio State 2-4, 6-0, 1 bad loss
15. Arizona 3-3, 6-3
16. Oklahoma 6-5, 2-3

Hard to determine, but even from this list you can tell they didn't exclusively look at Group records. Duke is above Cincinnati, Clemson, and Texas Tech. Virginia is above Villanova. Those examples are clearly not in order of quadrant records, so some fine tuning was done. But the overall list shows that Group records are very important, which is why I concentrate so much on that. And on aggregate, I think its not such a bad system, especially for one that doesn't use scoring margin.

Edit: Revised our record to what it was on Saturday

 

[sedziobs]

On second thought, Jay Bilas is 100% correct because one of Xavier's quality wins is against Rider

 

[ervins84]

Anybody want to do a daily running list of teams that are around our seed line that we should be rooting against?

For example, is it better if Texas Tech or Oklahoma wins tonight?

Obviously we want Kansas, VA,Tenn, and MSU to lose.

 

[TheShoeFits]

Anybody want to do a daily running list of teams that are around our seed line that we should be rooting against?

For example, is it better if Texas Tech or Oklahoma wins tonight?

Obviously we want Kansas, VA,Tenn, and MSU to lose.

I'll take a stab at tonight's slate.

Seton Hall @ Xavier Xavier is -5.5 I'm rooting for SH

UK @ Auburn Auburn is -9.5 As much as it pains me to say it "Go Big Blue"

VT @ Duke Duke is -12 I'm rooting for VT

Clemson @ Florida State FSU is -4.5 I'm rooting for FSU

Villanova @ Providence Villanova is -9.5

This one is tough for me. A Villanova loss most likely moves eggs up in the AP and betters their chances at winning the conference. Also I think its virtually a lock that both Villanova and Virginia are 1 seeds. However, though unlikely, if Villanova starts to falter down the stretch and UC wins out, I could see UC slide into a 1 seed. Especially this year when 1-8 seems interchangeable.

 

[Jon Rycek]

Clemson adds another loss to their resume. Should help us out

 

[waterhead]

Serious question here...

There are two teams that are at (or around) top 10 AdjD and AdjO in advanced metrics like Kenpom or T-rank. MSU and Purdue. I would like to avoid them for that reason.

But after that...what would you prefer? Playing a top rated D with a decent offense or playing a top rated offense with a decent defense? Historically I don't know who we do better against.

Do you want Villinova/Duke or do you want UVA/TTech. My initial thought is give me UVA or TTech.

 

[waterhead]

Serious question here...

There are two teams that are at (or around) top 10 AdjD and AdjO in advanced metrics like Kenpom or T-rank. MSU and Purdue. I would like to avoid them for that reason.

But after that...what would you prefer? Playing a top rated D with a decent offense or playing a top rated offense with a decent defense? Historically I don't know who we do better against.

Do you want Villinova/Duke or do you want UVA/TTech. My initial thought is give me UVA or TTech.

I am talking about which bracket we want to be in here...

 

[Jon Rycek]

Serious question here...

There are two teams that are at (or around) top 10 AdjD and AdjO in advanced metrics like Kenpom or T-rank. MSU and Purdue. I would like to avoid them for that reason.

But after that...what would you prefer? Playing a top rated D with a decent offense or playing a top rated offense with a decent defense? Historically I don't know who we do better against.

Do you want Villinova/Duke or do you want UVA/TTech. My initial thought is give me UVA or TTech.

I feel like we have struggled against elite offensive teams in past years. But that could be different because our offense is better than usual this year. But in my Opinion I'd much rather play a Virginia or Texas tech.

 

[kskenyon4]

Serious question here...

There are two teams that are at (or around) top 10 AdjD and AdjO in advanced metrics like Kenpom or T-rank. MSU and Purdue. I would like to avoid them for that reason.

But after that...what would you prefer? Playing a top rated D with a decent offense or playing a top rated offense with a decent defense? Historically I don't know who we do better against.

Do you want Villinova/Duke or do you want UVA/TTech. My initial thought is give me UVA or TTech.

I think beyond just the advanced stats, are the matchups.

Purdue poses a problem with their big men, and while I love Kyle's progression this year, he gives up deep position defensively way too often. That can spell disaster against 7 footers who are offensively inclined.

Michigan State I actually think poses one of the better matchups for us. Their PG isn't offensively superior at scoring, so I feel our pressure will help and he isn't looking to put the ball in the basket more so than normal. They have two good big guys, but they spread the floor and work well to defend with Gary/Kyle. Defensively, Cumberland and Evans would need to come up big, but I don't see a reason they shouldn't.

Villanova runs a ton of screens and odd action, with guards posting up, etc. It would be a great test of our defense, but if we really are one of the tops in the last decade, we can show it.

Duke, what can you say. They put up a ton of points and give up a ton, who wins the battle of how the games played?

UVA is a rock fight.

 

[waterhead]

I think beyond just the advanced stats, are the matchups.

Purdue poses a problem with their big men, and while I love Kyle's progression this year, he gives up deep position defensively way too often. That can spell disaster against 7 footers who are offensively inclined.

Michigan State I actually think poses one of the better matchups for us. Their PG isn't offensively superior at scoring, so I feel our pressure will help and he isn't looking to put the ball in the basket more so than normal. They have two good big guys, but they spread the floor and work well to defend with Gary/Kyle. Defensively, Cumberland and Evans would need to come up big, but I don't see a reason they shouldn't.

Villanova runs a ton of screens and odd action, with guards posting up, etc. It would be a great test of our defense, but if we really are one of the tops in the last decade, we can show it.

Duke, what can you say. They put up a ton of points and give up a ton, who wins the battle of how the games played?

UVA is a rock fight.

soooo....MSU?

 

[kskenyon4]

soooo....MSU?

If I had to pick. MSU or UVA. And then my heart says MSU because of their 2000 title. And the whole sexual assault thing.

 

[waterhead]

If I had to pick. MSU or UVA. And then my heart says MSU because of their 2000 title. And the whole sexual assault thing.

So you are thinking distraction with MSU. I get that...I can agree there.

Purdue scares me...Jesus have you seen the bigs on that team? I think one of them won "Rocky 4".

 

[kskenyon4]

So you are thinking distraction with MSU. I get that...I can agree there.

Purdue scares me...Jesus have you seen the bigs on that team? I think one of them won "Rocky 3".

Tonight will tell me a lot more, but Houston plays small ball, gave us fits for 20 minutes. Tonight we'll see but, the other top 3 seed who plays small ball is Auburn. Something to monitor. May rather play Kansas/MSU/Texas Tech/Clemson instead..

Historically, SMU plays small ball in the AAC, and we've done awful except for at home against them. I don't think Auburn is THAT good, but poses an issue for us.

 

[waterhead]

I would imagine we are on the 4 seed line right now give or take 1 depending on how things play out. If we win out I could maybe see us getting a 3 but not sure. If we win the next 3 but lose the last one I could see us getting a 4 or a 5 seed. I think WSU gets the protected seed if we lose to them again. Not sure if they will give the AAC 2 protected seeds. If we lose another game we may have to win the tourney to get a 4.

The only saving grace is that we were an early pick for a 2 seed and the committee may rather keep us in the top 16 to look like they got it right. It also depends on how other teams perform around us.

If we win the next 3 there is going to be a HUGE amount of things riding on that last game obviously. I just hope right now we can get to that last game without slipping up. We are huge favorites in all of them...but I hope our psyche is not too damaged. I think we should be fine in the next 3 though.

 

[TheRealUC]

I would imagine we are on the 4 seed line right now give or take 1 depending on how things play out. If we win out I could maybe see us getting a 3 but not sure. If we win the next 3 but lose the last one I could see us getting a 4 or a 5 seed. I think WSU gets the protected seed if we lose to them again. Not sure if they will give the AAC 2 protected seeds. If we lose another game we may have to win the tourney to get a 4.

The only saving grace is that we were an early pick for a 2 seed and the committee may rather keep us in the top 16 to look like they got it right. It also depends on how other teams perform around us.

If we win the next 3 there is going to be a HUGE amount of things riding on that last game obviously. I just hope right now we can get to that last game without slipping up. We are huge favorites in all of them...but I hope our psyche is not too damaged. I think we should be fine in the next 3 though.

You talking winning out regular season? Or regular and AAC tournament. We do the latter and we are a 2

 

[waterhead]

You talking winning out regular season? Or regular and AAC tournament. We do the latter and we are a 2

I was assuming a bit more of a dip from bracket matrix. It took us forever to get any credit. I figured two games in a row in our conference no matter how good the teams were... would drop us to a 4.

Maybe you're right...who knows.

 

[sedziobs]

Take a look at the 4 seeds. We still have more Group 1 wins than three of them. We're tied with West Virginia, who has 8 losses. We're still a step above all of them as of right now. The top 16 got hammered last week.

 

[waterhead]

Take a look at the 4 seeds. We still have more Group 1 wins than three of them. We're tied with West Virginia, who has 8 losses. We're still a step above all of them as of right now. The top 16 got hammered last week.

I know the quantity is there. We just don't have the top end wins.

I guess our home win against Houston became top end by virtue of losing to them we bumped them up into top 25...which is both good and bad. Houston is really starting to gel and so is WSU. We have to keep improving...and we can't do that by doing the same things.

We have three games to tinker around a little bit. If we don't make some changes...I will assume we are going with status quo into March.

 

[sedziobs]

I know the quantity is there. We just don't have the top end wins.

I guess our home win against Houston became top end by virtue of losing to them we bumped them up into top 25...which is both good and bad. Houston is really starting to gel and so is WSU. We have to keep improving...and we can't do that by doing the same things.

We have three games to tinker around a little bit. If we don't make some changes...I will assume we are going with status quo into March.

Okay, but none of that has to do with our seed right now. Our resume is in line with the other 3 seeds. We don't have a top 10 win, but we are better than the 4 seeds in pretty much every other area.

 

[waterhead]

Okay, but none of that has to do with our seed right now. Our resume is in line with the other 3 seeds. We don't have a top 10 win, but we are better than the 4 seeds in pretty much every other area.

That's great. I am not doubting that. What I am doubting is our ability to win the biggest games...the one's we will have to win in March....which we haven't done yet.

I am not even doubting this from a talent or player standpoint. I am doubting this from a coaching standpoint at the moment. Can we run on offense which can beat great teams? I have serious doubts...and that is not from a talent standpoint.