Bracketology

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I still believe we haven't remotely seen the best of this team yet. If they limit turnovers they will be in every game they play.
 
Do you guys frequent teamrankings.com? There's some really cool stuff there when it comes to NCAA Tournament projections. Here's a couple links. The first is for the AAC, the second is strictly UC.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/by-conference/#american
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/cincinnati-bearcats/bracketology

They seem to like UC's odds at making the tournament with a good seed:
- 92.5% to make the tourney
- 6.5 seed projection
- 25% to be a top 4 seed

Their projections don't really like UC's odds of advancing in the tourney, though:
- 50.4% to advance to the 2nd round
- 17.5% to advance to the sweet sixteen
- 4.9% to advance to the elite eight

Those odds of advancing seem slim when you compare them to the projected seed. It's just a lot of crazy projections, but if you're into numbers like me, it's pretty nifty.
 
#BearcatNation said:
Do you guys frequent teamrankings.com? There's some really cool stuff there when it comes to NCAA Tournament projections. Here's a couple links. The first is for the AAC, the second is strictly UC.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/by-conference/#american
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/cincinnati-bearcats/bracketology

They seem to like UC's odds at making the tournament with a good seed:
- 92.5% to make the tourney
- 6.5 seed projection
- 25% to be a top 4 seed

Their projections don't really like UC's odds of advancing in the tourney, though:
- 50.4% to advance to the 2nd round
- 17.5% to advance to the sweet sixteen
- 4.9% to advance to the elite eight

Those odds of advancing seem slim when you compare them to the projected seed. It's just a lot of crazy projections, but if you're into numbers like me, it's pretty nifty.
Click to expand...

It is factoring in our odds of making the tournament at all into those second round numbers, so since they have us as 92.5% chance to make the tournament (91.5% chance to make the "First Round"), that 50.4% seems lower than a usual 7/10 or 6/11 match up where we already know the team made the First round. Most of those projections favor efficient teams that win by large margins, and UC has not done that thus far (or last year either). Hope that helps.
 
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Eternal E said:
It is factoring in our odds of making the tournament at all into those second round numbers, so since they have us as 92.5% chance to make the tournament (91.5% chance to make the "First Round"), that 50.4% seems lower than a usual 7/10 or 6/11 match up where we already know the team made the First round. Most of those projections favor efficient teams that win by large margins, and UC has not done that thus far (or last year either). Hope that helps.
Click to expand...

Good call. That definitely makes sense. I was thinking of advancing through the odds of them being in the tournament (100%), not 92%. That does make a difference. But still, when you compare us to other schools, our odds of advancing are low for a school at 92.5% to make the tourney.

For example, Baylor has an 88.9% chance of making the tourney, but they have a far better chance at 2nd round, sweet sixteen, elite eight, etc. than we do. Wonder where those factors are coming from.
 
#BearcatNation said:
Good call. That definitely makes sense. I was thinking of advancing through the odds of them being in the tournament (100%), not 92%. That does make a difference. But still, when you compare us to other schools, our odds of advancing are low for a school at 92.5% to make the tourney.

For example, Baylor has an 88.9% chance of making the tourney, but they have a far better chance at 2nd round, sweet sixteen, elite eight, etc. than we do. Wonder where those factors are coming from.
Click to expand...

Strength of conference?
 
#BearcatNation said:
Good call. That definitely makes sense. I was thinking of advancing through the odds of them being in the tournament (100%), not 92%. That does make a difference. But still, when you compare us to other schools, our odds of advancing are low for a school at 92.5% to make the tourney.

For example, Baylor has an 88.9% chance of making the tourney, but they have a far better chance at 2nd round, sweet sixteen, elite eight, etc. than we do. Wonder where those factors are coming from.
Click to expand...

It has to do with efficiency. Baylor has an average scoring margin of +11 (#26) points per game, and has a top 25 offense and a top 40 defense. Cincinnati has a scoring margin of just +8 (#60) even after blowing Temple out by 31 points and has a top 80 offense and a top 20 defense. We've been blown out by VCU, and lost by double figures to Memphis and Ole Miss...and our wins over lower competition were all close games. That in turn gives us a lower probability of winning using their forecasting methods.

The ideal team for the KenPom or any type of efficiency ranking is a team that when it wins, wins by very large margins but when they lose it is always a close game. Tennessee last year was an #11 seed in the NCAA tournament but finished 7 in the KenPom (was in the top 20 before the tournament) for the very reason in comparison look at UMass last year, who as blown out by Tennessee in the 6/11 game. They finished ranked 54 in KenPom because they lost a lot of blowouts and squeaked by a lot of weak A-10 teams.
 
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Does anyone recall the website that literally takes all the seeding predictions from other various websites and it averages out the teams seeding?
 
Lunardi moved us up to an 8 seed in the East.

Palm moved us to a 7 seed in the East (playing in Pittsburgh, this would be awesome!)

Fox Sports has us a 7 seed in the South.
 

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