Work left to do: Cincinnati, Connecticut
To borrow a phrase from a recent GOP primary debate: Let's address the wild horse not in the room. There's no point in relitigating SMU's NCAA tournament ban, except to say that Larry Brown is a three-time (and multi-decade) NCAA offender and that his players, especially the SMU seniors, were hard done by the Sept. 29 timing of the NCAA's postseason punishment. Instead, let's note three things: (1) SMU entered February at 19-1 with a No. 8 RPI, and is so much better than everyone else in the American it's not even fun; (2) SMU is a really fun, smart team worth watching whenever the opportunity presents itself; and (3) SMU's ineligibility is a charitable donation to the rest of the bubble -- and to whatever team ends up a seed line higher thanks to the Mustangs' abdication. It doesn't help, of course, but the Watch is nonetheless obliged to present SMU with a first-ever honorary lock status. Illegitimi non carborundum, Mustangs.
Cincinnati [16-6 (6-3), RPI: 54, SOS: 88] There's nothing special about Cincinnati's resume at first glance. Dig a little deeper -- or, you know, be a Bearcats fan who lives and breathes this stuff -- and you realize that four of Cincinnati's six losses (to Iowa State, Butler, SMU and Temple) have all come by a final margin of two points apiece. The RPI may not factor in margin of victory or defeat, but hopefully someone on the committee recognizes that the Bearcats' losses are as much about randomness and coin flips as any inherent inability to close out close games. Mick Cronin's team might be in the tournament if it began today, but it's eight points away from feeling far more comfortable about that idea.
Connecticut [15-6 (5-3), RPI: 55, SOS: 73] During the offseason, when ESPN released a too-early top 25, UConn fans were among the most vocal that their team had been snubbed. The Watch's email inbox was overrun. Its Twitter mentions were a mess. How dare people not recognize the talent UConn coach Kevin Ollie has at his disposal? How could the rest of the world not see, in Daniel Hamilton and Jalen Adams and transfer Sterling Gibbs and guard Rodney Purvis (who was absolutely, definitely, due for a huge breakout season) that the Huskies had the makings of a top-15 team? Look closer, Huskies fans beckoned, and you shall see. It's February, so let's talk about what the Huskies actually are: a decent team with a not-so-decent RPI, two noteworthy wins (vs. Michigan, at Texas), zero egregious losses, a 5-3 record in the American, a blown opportunity (thanks mostly to a paper-tossing Ollie technical) to beat Maryland on a neutral floor, and lots of work to do.
