Computer Numbers/Bracketology Thread

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I wouldn't be feeling safe at all if we did that

Me either. Honestly, we can't afford any more losses. I know that might not be realistic but I think we can only have one more loss. Winning at Tulsa and/or Houston is going to be tough for our team. Especially with how inconsistent they are on the road.
 
Me either. Honestly, we can't afford any more losses. I know that might not be realistic but I think we can only have one more loss. Winning at Tulsa and/or Houston is going to be tough for our team. Especially with how inconsistent they are on the road.
Need to get over that real quick. The conference tourney won't be at home and neither will the NCAA. Time the Cats got this figured out.
 
Straight from the mouth of the Selection Committee Chairman...

But the madness goes much deeper than just the top of the poll. Among the resources we use to help select and seed teams for the tournament are several computer metrics. Each week we receive a composite ranking of six metrics, and a quick glance of that shows discrepancies up and down the list. For example, Indiana ranks much higher in the Sagarin and Ken Pom rankings compared to the RPI and the BPI. You see similar disparities in various rankings for teams such as Arizona, Dayton, UConn, Cincinnati and Gonzaga. But the process isn't solely analytical. We all evaluate teams by watching and evaluating their play from November through early March, taking other things into consideration such as coach and player availability.

Full transcript here --> LINK
 
Need to get over that real quick. The conference tourney won't be at home and neither will the NCAA. Time the Cats got this figured out.

I agree. They haven't yet. Not much season left to now. We'll find out real quick if this team has the leadership and focus to win on the road.
 
Metrics are starting to improve...

As of 2/14/16
Live-RPI: 63 (OOC SOS 161; Overall SOS 108)
KenPom: 28
-Adj Offense Efficiency: 108.2 (88th)
-Adj Defense Efficiency: 92.9 (10th)
-Adj Tempo: 66.6 (297th)
Sagarin: 29
-Predictor: 85.93 (24th)
ESPN BPI: 25
-Best game BPI: 98.4 vs. Tulsa (1/2)
-Worst game BPI: 41.2 vs. Temple (12/29)
AP/Coaches Poll: N/A
Bracket Projection: 12 seed in 65/89 brackets
 
4 of our next 5 games are against RPI #100 teams.


RPI Forecast pretty much says that if we lose only 1 time and its either to Houston or Tulsa, Our RPI would be 31.

If we lose two both those teams our RPI would be 41.


31 sounds a hell of bit nicer for our chances.

Need to sting together a 3 game win streak going into houston and take some pressure off
 
I think out of the next 5 games we have to go 4-1 and the loss obviously not from ECU. If we lose one more I hope it is not this weekend either so we don't have to stress. Get through this week and I'm feeling very comfortable about dancing including dodging the play-in game.
 
We got 2 votes in the AP poll this week. That's not much to write home about... but hey, it's 2 more than last week. We're also the only non-SMU AAC team to get votes.
 
First four in on Joe Lunardi's bracketology. We win these next three I really like our chances. I want to be out of the first four in and into the safe area by time the AAC tourney rolls around.
 
First four in on Joe Lunardi's bracketology. We win these next three I really like our chances. I want to be out of the first four in and into the safe area by time the AAC tourney rolls around.

LSU is a bubble team and may be without Hornsby for rest of the season - could be reason they don't make the tourney.

Win the next 3 (not easy to do) and you'd be safe from Dayton baring a bad loss (not to UConn/Tulsa/Temple) in the AAC tourney.
 
LSU loses bad @ Arkansas tonight. They are fried barring winning out until SEC final.

Temple was an 11 seed in ESPN bracketology, slightly ahead of us, and loses by 20 to Tulsa.

Clemson is a bubble team and loses @ GT.

Florida was an 8 seed and loses at home to Vanderbilt, a bubble team.

Texas Tech is in a dog fight with TCU.

Solid night to be an off night bubble team.
 
2/24 bubble watch:

Northwestern at Michigan ( both on the bubble)

GW at Richmond ( George Washington on the bubble)

Duquesne at st. Bonaventure ( Bonnie's on the bubble)

Wisconsin at Iowa ( Wisconsin on the bubble)

St. Joes at umass ( st joes on the bubble)

Arizona at Colorado ( Colorado on the bubble)
 
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2/24 bubble watch:

Northwestern at Michigan ( both on the bubble)

GW at Richmond ( George Washington on the bubble)

Duquesne at st. Bonaventure ( Bonnie's on the bubble)

Wisconsin at Iowa ( Wisconsin on the bubble)

St. Joes at umass ( st joes on the bubble)

Arizona at Colorado ( Colorado on the bubble)

Great list IMO. If Wisconsin and Colorado can beat Arizona and Iowa more power to them and they deserve it. More likely they're taking Ls

The other 4 are even better. Not much to gain and some chances for bad losses.
 
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