Computer Numbers/Bracketology Thread

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Because the gap between the top and middle-tier teams is at its lowest point in years, there are a number of low seeds with a good chance to advance into the second weekend. Valparaiso, Gonzaga, LSU, California and Cincinnati are five projected double-digit seeds that have at least a 15 percent chance of making the Sweet 16; there was one such double-digit seed with that high of a chance entering the tournament in 2015.
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http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/114381/bpi-projects-a-wide-open-ncaa-tournament
 
UL postseason ban means another team gets in the tourney. Nothing but good news there, since they would of been a 4-5 seed most likely, everyone moves up a spot!

Would love to lose only once rest of the year and grab a 6-7 seed.
 
Dunno if this is against the rules but here is the article that called UC a Potential giant killer in the tourney. (its ESPN insider article).


Cincinnati Bearcats (GK rating: 63.4): We’ve been writing for years that Cincinnati is a Giant that plays more like a Killer. Well, they might get their chance this March. The Bearcats already have lost twice to Temple and have just two wins over squads ranked in the BPI top 60 (VCU and Connecticut), leaving them as a 10-seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest projections and on the cusp of that coveted 11-6 Giant Killers matchup. Peer closer, though, and Cincinnati is also the type of team that could upset a No. 2 seed in the second round.

The Bearcats sport the second-highest rating (63.4) of the current crop of potential Killers, meaning they might just be waiting before feasting on their prey come March. They’ll attack with the tried-and-true combo of forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive boards. If you’ve followed us over the years, you understand that extra possessions are the allies of an upset. And Cincinnati generates a bundle of them, forcing turnovers on 21.2 percent of opponents’ possessions and grabbing 37.6 percent of their own missed shots. Eight Bearcats average double-digit minutes, with only one, Troy Caupain, playing more than 30 MPG. So there’s a certain interchangeable quality that should help them in a one-and-done setting, where having a backup plan is essential on a day where things don’t work as designed.

Cincinnati also shoots the ball reasonably well by its typical standards. The Bearcats are hitting 35.8 percent of their 3-pointers, which is above the national average of 34.6, and much better than their performance last season (32.9 percent) and in 2013-14 (33.5). Much of that credit goes to leading scorer Farad Cobb, whose 44.5 percent deep shooting should draw the focus of opposing defenses. The fact that they can get hot from deep is critical to their upset hopes; it allows them to play a high-variance game against better foes. On the right day, where they are swiping the ball, knocking down treys and gathering a host of the ones that they miss, Cincy will be a nightmare matchup. For anyone.
 
wow in joes latest bracket he has temple in and us out. We are second on the last four out list. Take care of business this week and we will be back in the field next week. I would have went crazy if you told me before the season that in February we wouldnt be in the field
 
Bearcat Rob said:
wow in joes latest bracket he has temple in and us out. We are second on the last four out list. Take care of business this week and we will be back in the field next week. I would have went crazy if you told me before the season that in February we wouldnt be in the field
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Yeah, it's not very enjoyable to see, but like you said win this week and we back in. Comes down to a big next week though - at Tulsa and home against UCONN. This is all I will be thinking about the next two weeks.
 
Doogle said:
3 points away in 4 different games from being 20-2. Split those games and you're 18-4 and ranked. The Memphis and UConn games balance that a bit until you realize how badly UC outplayed both of those teams (more than the final score would indicate).
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Not sure I agree that we badly outplayed UConn and there are some other games as well. South Florida scared the heck out of us in the final minutes and we escaped a horrific loss.

We pulled out last minute wins on b2b nights in that Nebraska/GW run.
 
Bearcat Rob said:
wow in joes latest bracket he has temple in and us out. We are second on the last four out list. Take care of business this week and we will be back in the field next week. I would have went crazy if you told me before the season that in February we wouldnt be in the field
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Only reason temple is in at the moment is bc they are first in the conference standings since smu is out. Conference 1st place always in on lunardi and Jerry Palm
 
Bearcat_NTS said:
As of 2/10/16
Live-RPI: 64 (OOC SOS 154; Overall SOS 97)
KenPom: 30
-Adj Offense Efficiency: 108.6 (80th)
-Adj Defense Efficiency: 93.1 (16th)
-Adj Tempo: 66.5 (301st)
Sagarin: 31
-Predictor: 86.03 (29th)
ESPN BPI: 32
-Best game BPI: 98.1 vs. Tulsa (1/2)
-Worst game BPI: 38.4 vs. Temple (12/29)
AP/Coaches Poll: N/A
Bracket Projection: 11 seed (43 overall) in 57/86 brackets
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Thanks NTS! I think if we beat either UCONN or SMU and take care of the rest of the schedule we should be in the field. Of course I would be happier if we win them all including the Conference tourney.
 
The Mock Selection committee met the past few days in Indy. UConn was seeded #31 overall, Temple was considered but didn't make the first four out. No idea how seriously Cincinnati was considered.
 
Bearcat_NTS said:
The Mock Selection committee met the past few days in Indy. UConn was seeded #31 overall, Temple was considered but didn't make the first four out. No idea how seriously Cincinnati was considered.
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that has to have changed since last night Temple sweeping UCONN could not have been in that selection process.
 
Thought this was funny. It was after Rothstein said his AAC teams were Temple and UConn.

Keeneland Dan
@fatbaldguyracin
@JonRothstein now that is nuts Cincy is not even close to missing tourney as of right now the resume is better then every A10 school but 1

@JonRothstein
I don't feel you're being objective. Bearcats are right there. Still have opportunities.
 
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On Pregame.com First Preview they were talking about Monmouth as an at-large...David Malinsky said he thought it'd be great for college bball if they got in. Then he said "Look at Lunardi's last 4 in: Seton Hall, Florida State, Butler, Cincinnati. I almost fell asleep reading that." Ouch.
 
jacobkdoyle said:
Thought this was funny. It was after Rothstein said his AAC teams were Temple and UConn.

Keeneland Dan
@fatbaldguyracin
@JonRothstein now that is nuts Cincy is not even close to missing tourney as of right now the resume is better then every A10 school but 1

@JonRothstein
I don't feel you're being objective. Bearcats are right there. Still have opportunities.
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What's he going to think when we sweep UCONN
 
Originally Posted by Bearcat_NTS View Post
The Mock Selection committee met the past few days in Indy. UConn was seeded #31 overall, Temple was considered but didn't make the first four out. No idea how seriously Cincinnati was considered.

11th seed play/in game vs. Seton Hall as of last night. Not there this morning.

Go Bearcats!
 
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I'm really confused as to why people around the country think the A10 is better than the AAC
 
mdchick said:
I'm really confused as to why people around the country think the A10 is better than the AAC
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How many matchups have there been? Wins neutral v GW and @VCU by us has to help. Temple lost to St. Joe's and beat LaSalle. GW won @UCF.
 
jacobkdoyle said:
Thought this was funny. It was after Rothstein said his AAC teams were Temple and UConn.

Keeneland Dan
@fatbaldguyracin
@JonRothstein now that is nuts Cincy is not even close to missing tourney as of right now the resume is better then every A10 school but 1

@JonRothstein
I don't feel you're being objective. Bearcats are right there. Still have opportunities.
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He's wrong. Cincinnati is close to missing the tournament. Probably would be in Dayton if the tournament was selected today. Improvements by Tulsa and Temple hurt, same with LSU. Our strength numbers warrant a 8/9 seed (being in the top 32 in most metrics). That is probably saving us right now.
 

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