Games of Importance for UC's Resume

[justinhub2003]

Will try to do this Daily and who I think we should be rooting for and maybe an update the next day on what happened.

Wednesday Jan 10th 2018

#10 Xavier @ #1 Villanova
8pm
FS1
Who we want to win: Xavier ( but I'm not)
Losing by double digits looks better if the team we lose to is elite.

Miss State @ Florida
7pm
SECN
Who we want to win: Miss State
This would validate Miss State as a contender in the SEC and be a nice KP and RPI boost for them (and us)

UCF @ UCONN
7pm
CBSSN
Who we want to win: UCF
We want UCF to be a tourney team and losing to UCONN is brutal no matter the location. Need them to win out until we play Tuesday

Mercer @ Western Carolina
7pm
ESPN3
Who we want to win: Western Carolina
WCU will never be a good win, but it could help them move up numerous spots if they knock off the #111 team in kenpom

Temple @ SMU
9pm
CBSSN
Who we want to win: SMU
Temple is a lost cause, we need our 20 point victory over SMU to look as impressive as it can. Go Stangs.

Wyoming @ New Mexico
9pm
Spice Channel
Who we want to win: Wyoming
Wyoming is on the cusp of being a top 100 win. Beating the #155 team in their gym will help get closer to that.


IF I missed any let me know.

 

[sedziobs]

I like it. I have some different opinions though. I'm not so sure we should root for SMU. I doubt they're going to be a top 30 RPI team, so our home win will not be Group 1. I think it's more important for Temple to be a top 75 team, so our road win over them is Group 1. Similarly with Miss St, I don't see them making top 30. Would be nice to keep our losses limited to Group 1, which Florida is barely hanging on to. Also, I think X and WCU are irrelevant. Those teams are locked into Groups 1 and 4.

 

[kskenyon4]

Just a note in determining "teams to root for", is the Quadrant rankings. What I mean is, we played Florida on a neutral site, so want them to be top 50, while we played Miss St at home, so would need them to be top 35 (in order to be Quadrant 1).

Currently Florida is 44, and Miss St 54. Net, not going to be the worst thing for Florida to win and stay top 50, if Miss St doesn't play well enough over the next 6 weeks to be top 35.

Of course that game is splitting hairs since we played both teams, but they are not scheduled to play a second time (unless SEC Tourney).

 

[jacobkdoyle]

This is great.

 

[sedziobs]

... top 35 (in order to be Quadrant 1)...

Currently Florida is 44, and Miss St 54.

Top 30, FYI. What rankings are you using?

 

[kskenyon4]

Top 30, FYI. What rankings are you using?

Those were pulled from ESPN RPI.

 

[waterhead]

Will try to do this Daily and who I think we should be rooting for and maybe an update the next day on what happened.

Wednesday Jan 10th 2018

#10 Xavier @ #1 Villanova
8pm
FS1
Who we want to win: Xavier ( but I'm not)
Losing by double digits looks better if the team we lose to is elite.

Miss State @ Florida
7pm
SECN
Who we want to win: Miss State
This would validate Miss State as a contender in the SEC and be a nice KP and RPI boost for them (and us)

UCF @ UCONN
7pm
CBSSN
Who we want to win: UCF
We want UCF to be a tourney team and losing to UCONN is brutal no matter the location. Need them to win out until we play Tuesday

Mercer @ Western Carolina
7pm
ESPN3
Who we want to win: Western Carolina
WCU will never be a good win, but it could help them move up numerous spots if they knock off the #111 team in kenpom

Temple @ SMU
9pm
CBSSN
Who we want to win: SMU
Temple is a lost cause, we need our 20 point victory over Temple to look as impressive as it can. Go Stangs.

Wyoming @ New Mexico
9pm
Spice Channel
Who we want to win: Wyoming
Wyoming is on the cusp of being a top 100 win. Beating the #155 team in their gym will help get closer to that.


IF I missed any let me know.

Nice job Hub!

 

[sedziobs]

Those were pulled from ESPN RPI.

ESPN must be delayed or something. NCAA and Warren Nolan show different numbers.

 

[justinhub2003]

Just a note in determining "teams to root for", is the Quadrant rankings. What I mean is, we played Florida on a neutral site, so want them to be top 50, while we played Miss St at home, so would need them to be top 35 (in order to be Quadrant 1).

Currently Florida is 44, and Miss St 54. Net, not going to be the worst thing for Florida to win and stay top 50, if Miss St doesn't play well enough over the next 6 weeks to be top 35.

Of course that game is splitting hairs since we played both teams, but they are not scheduled to play a second time (unless SEC Tourney).

A team you beat getting better is Always better than a team you lost to getting better.


Committee doesn't measure quadrant 1,2, 3 & 4 losses, only wins. While I want florida to do good in every other game, when its against a team we beat, I dont

 

[sedziobs]

A team you beat getting better is Always better than a team you lost to getting better.

Committee doesn't measure quadrant 1,2, 3 & 4 losses, only wins.

Some bold assertions there. I happen to disagree with them. I'd gladly consider any evidence you have though.

 

[justinhub2003]

Some bold assertions there. I happen to disagree with them. I'd gladly consider any evidence you have though.

Last year, the committee kinda showed it didn't nearly matter as much who you lost to, but rather who you beat.


I'd rather a 2 loss Mississippi State team prove they are legit. Florida is good enough that it won't drop back too far in any of the rankings. But Miss state could really plummet due to their bad SOS

 

[sedziobs]

Last year, the committee kinda showed it didn't nearly matter as much who you lost to, but rather who you beat.

I'd rather a 2 loss Mississippi State team prove they are legit. Florida is good enough that it won't drop back too far in any of the rankings. But Miss state could really plummet due to their bad SOS

Well that's another assertion, not evidence. It's fine if you hold that opinion, but stating it as fact is a little extreme. I'm going to stick with what the NCAA says:

“We consulted with experts within the coaching and analytics fields who looked at historical data, based on winning percentages by game location, to come up with these dividing lines within each of the columns,” said Mark Hollis, the director of athletics at Michigan State and the current chair of the committee. “The emphasis of performing well on the road is important, as was the need for teams not to be penalized as much for road losses. Beating elite competition, regardless of the game location, will still be rewarded, but the committee wanted the team sheets to reflect that a road game against a team ranked 60th is mathematically more difficult and of higher quality than a home game versus a team ranked 35th. We feel this change accomplishes that.”

 

[justinhub2003]

Well that's another assertion, not evidence. It's fine if you hold that opinion, but stating it as fact is a little extreme. I'm going to stick with what the NCAA says:

“We consulted with experts within the coaching and analytics fields who looked at historical data, based on winning percentages by game location, to come up with these dividing lines within each of the columns,” said Mark Hollis, the director of athletics at Michigan State and the current chair of the committee. “The emphasis of performing well on the road is important, as was the need for teams not to be penalized as much for road losses. Beating elite competition, regardless of the game location, will still be rewarded, but the committee wanted the team sheets to reflect that a road game against a team ranked 60th is mathematically more difficult and of higher quality than a home game versus a team ranked 35th. We feel this change accomplishes that.”

Huh? We didn’t play Florida on the road

 

[sedziobs]

Huh? We didn’t play Florida on the road

The bolded part says that teams are punished for losses, and that the new groups mean the punishment is less for a road loss. Earlier you said the committee doesn't measure losses at all. This isn't just a discussion about Florida, it's about wins, losses and RPI in general. The committees words indicate that it absolutely matters what group your losses are in.

 

[ZCat]

Just a note in determining "teams to root for", is the Quadrant rankings. What I mean is, we played Florida on a neutral site, so want them to be top 50, while we played Miss St at home, so would need them to be top 35 (in order to be Quadrant 1).

Currently Florida is 44, and Miss St 54. Net, not going to be the worst thing for Florida to win and stay top 50, if Miss St doesn't play well enough over the next 6 weeks to be top 35.

Of course that game is splitting hairs since we played both teams, but they are not scheduled to play a second time (unless SEC Tourney).

Did we spend this much effort when we were in school? Lol. I love it! Just have to find what you're passionate about. And hope you can get paid to do it. You guys are awesome!

 

[justinhub2003]

The bolded part says that teams are punished for losses, and that the new groups mean the punishment is less for a road loss. Earlier you said the committee doesn't measure losses at all. This isn't just a discussion about Florida, it's about wins, losses and RPI in general. The committees words indicate that it absolutely matters what group your losses are in.

I just don’t read any where that says a quadrant 1 loss is better than a quadrant 2 win.


I just used rpi forecast to predict what a win and loss would mean for either team.

Florida
Current Rpi: #49
If win: 33
If lose: 58

Miss state:
Current rpi: 65
If win: 31
If lose: 53


With a win it puts Mississippi state on the cusp of being a tier 1 win. If they lose it’s a tier 2 like it is now.

I’ll take my chances on adding another tier 1 win every single time. Tier 1 vs tier 1 loss is not really debatable

 

[juckerrules]

Just a note in determining "teams to root for", is the Quadrant rankings. What I mean is, we played Florida on a neutral site, so want them to be top 50, while we played Miss St at home, so would need them to be top 35 (in order to be Quadrant 1).

Currently Florida is 44, and Miss St 54. Net, not going to be the worst thing for Florida to win and stay top 50, if Miss St doesn't play well enough over the next 6 weeks to be top 35.

Of course that game is splitting hairs since we played both teams, but they are not scheduled to play a second time (unless SEC Tourney).

Pretty sure Miss St. is a lost cause. When they start games against UK, Fla, Auburn, Tennessee, TAMU, Georgia et al. they will drop significantly

 

[Jon Rycek]

A team you beat getting better is Always better than a team you lost to getting better.


Committee doesn't measure quadrant 1,2, 3 & 4 losses, only wins. While I want florida to do good in every other game, when its against a team we beat, I dont

In that case why root for Xavier? I mean either way I'm not, but Jw lol

 

[Jon Rycek]

Pretty sure Miss St. is a lost cause. When they start games against UK, Fla, Auburn, Tennessee, TAMU, Georgia et al. they will drop significantly

The just won against a ranked team last week. Wouldn't say lost cause when they're 1-1 in the conference. Still 16 More games to play.

 

[justinhub2003]

In that case why root for Xavier? I mean either way I'm not, but Jw lol

As noted in my breakdown, I’m not either.

I’m not saying that losses don’t count, I’m saying I’ll take a good win over a good loss and those two things are playing out in the miss state Florida game. We should want Xavier and Florida to win every game except games where they play teams we beat.

And potential also takes a factor in my decision to pick miss state. Miss state winning gives them more potential towards being a tier 1 win. The best Florida can be for us Is a tier 1 loss. A tier 1 loss won’t help us but also won’t hurt us. Miss state reaching becoming a tier 1 win is still on the table and would hugely help us out.