Games of Importance for UC's Resume

[sedziobs]

Sunday Jan 14th 2018

Houston @ East Carolina
2 pm ESPN3
Houston hopes to avoid disaster.

 

[sedziobs]

Houston wins. RPI steady at 49.

 

[sedziobs]

Tuesday Jan 16th 2018

Vanderbilt @ Mississippi St
7pm SEC Network
Miss St's RPI is 73, just below the Group 2 cutoff of 75. 66% chance to win.

Northern Illinois @ Buffalo
7pm ESPN3
Buffalo still in Group 1 with a 27 RPI. 90% chance to win.

UConn @ Memphis
9pm CBS Sports
This one is less clear, but UConn is at RPI 78, just outside Group 1 for the road game. Memphis is 97. Kenpom says UConn has a 44% chance of winning.

 

[waterhead]

Tuesday Jan 16th 2018

Vanderbilt @ Mississippi St
7pm SEC Network
Miss St's RPI is 73, just below the Group 2 cutoff of 75. 66% chance to win.

Northern Illinois @ Buffalo
7pm ESPN3
Buffalo still in Group 1 with a 27 RPI. 90% chance to win.

UConn @ Memphis
9pm CBS Sports
This one is less clear, but UConn is at RPI 78, just outside Group 1 for the road game. Memphis is 97. Kenpom says UConn has a 44% chance of winning.

Not sure that 3rd game matters much but go Buffalo and Miss St.

 

[sedziobs]

Miss St wins, RPI improves a bit to 69.
Buffalo wins, RPI steady at 29.

 

[sedziobs]

Wednesday Jan 17th 2018

Arkansas @ Florida
7pm ESPN 2
Florida's RPI is 43, needs to stay in top 50 to be Group 1. 67% chance to win.

Tulsa @ Temple
6pm ESPNews
Temple currently at 54 RPI. 73% chance to win.

Houston @ Tulane
8pm ESPNews
Houston currently at 52 RPI. 71% chance to win.

SMU @ Wichita St
7pm ESPNU
Toss-up as to who to root for. SMU at 81 RPI, need them to get into top 75. Wichita at 18 RPI, need them to stay top 30. Kenpom says Wichita has a 75% chance to win.

 

[justinhub2003]

Wednesday Jan 17th 2018

Arkansas @ Florida
7pm ESPN 2
Florida's RPI is 43, needs to stay in top 50 to be Group 1. 67% chance to win.

Tulsa @ Temple
6pm ESPNews
Temple currently at 54 RPI. 73% chance to win.

Houston @ Tulane
8pm ESPNews
Houston currently at 52 RPI. 71% chance to win.

SMU @ Wichita St
7pm ESPNU
Toss-up as to who to root for. SMU at 81 RPI, need them to get into top 75. Wichita at 18 RPI, need them to stay top 30. Kenpom says Wichita has a 75% chance to win.

At least according rpi forecast, smu will gain in RPI win or lose.

Lose: #76
Win: # 50 something

I’d rather SMU win since we crushed them and bc WSU won’t fall too hard from it.

Then will have first place in the conference and control our own destiny in the conference

 

[david aka the TYZ]

If we want to win the conference outright then we need Wichita State to lose somewhere. Otherwise we have to go 18-0 and that's a tall order. I root for anyone over Wichita State right now.

 

[sedziobs]

In this thread, I'm basing everything on our actual resume, meaning our team sheet that the committee sees with games separated into groups. Therefore, the goal is to maximize the number of games on our schedule that fall into Group 1. I'm not considering conference standing, AP ranking, national perception, efficiency, momentum, confidence, swagger, or other intangibles here. Not that they aren't important, but there's plenty of discussion about that elsewhere.

Of course winning our conference is a perceived plus, but it isn't strictly a "resume" item, so it is secondary here. We also control our own destiny in conference - we don't need anyone to lose. But as I said, even from the strictly RPI group standpoint, the Wichita/SMU game is essentially a toss-up. So I have no problem with rooting for SMU.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

Human perception has as much to do with our resume as any formula or computer rating. I think winning the conference outright will mean a better seed than finishing 2nd in a weak league no matter what the metrics say. While I agree we control our own destiny since we can run the table that just not only doesn't seem realistic, it would probably put us as a 1 seed anyway so if that's what we're counting on then following any other games is moot.

But I do understand the point you're making. My response was more about who I'm rooting for and why

 

[sedziobs]

... My response was more about who I'm rooting for and why

I hear you. You make a lot of good points that will relate to our seeding. I think we should eventually have a bracketology thread where we compare resumes with other teams and also all of the human perception factors to asses where we stand in the seed list.

 

[sedziobs]

Florida wins, RPI improves to 36.
Temple wins, RPI steady at 50.
Houston falls at Tulane, RPI down a bit to 57.
SMU wins to improve their RPI to 59, moving them into position for a Group 1 road game. Wichita St falls to 28, just barely staying within Group 1 for our home game with them.

 

[sedziobs]

Thursday Jan 18th 2018

UCLA @ Oregon St
11pm FS1
UCLA at RPI 49, need them to stay top 75. 57% chance to win.

 

[sedziobs]

UCLA loses, RPI drops to 54.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

I'm glad I got all you guys providing all this Data. Old timers like me generally just watch the games. Having this info makes it much more fun when UC isn't playing. I used to just worry about UC winning or losing.

 

[justinhub2003]

Ucla isn’t making the tourney

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Ucla isn’t making the tourney

Besides AZ. and Az. St. who does out of the Pac?

 

[waterhead]

Ucla isn’t making the tourney

No doubt. I just hope they can stay top 75 right now...lol! But seriously...

 

[cincrulz11]

Ucla isn’t making the tourney

Didn’t people laugh at us when we said this back in December?

 

[Defense first]

Didn’t people laugh at us when we said this back in December?

Per Fox sports last night after the game they were in as 8 seed. However they can't take many more losses. A lot will depend on conference tournaments, how many teams will steal a bid.