Waite...I think the main argument for P5 being a difference maker is basically recruiting advantage. That is a potential recruit is really looking to be in a P5 conference. The only real way I can see this being a major deciding factor (in the current landscape) is in a scenario where a recruit has a 50-50 choice to make for a P5 school vs non P5.
You are not going to get me to believe that a recruit is going to pick Rutgers over a team like UC, X, Gonzaga, Uconn, or Villanova because we are not P5. Again I say as of RIGHT NOW. That could change in the future as P5 becomes more important but right now I think it's a VERY small consideration for a recruit. Along with locality, relationship with coach, program success, academics, playing time, can I get coached up for NBA, etc etc etc.
I don't think great BB programs outside of P5 have been hurt just yet. In the same light I don't see a noticeable recruiting change in programs like Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, WV, etc just because they have joined.
Analysis...it is NOT an excuse to not land recruits and make deep runs in March AT THIS TIME.