New Expectations

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david aka the TYZ said:
Am I the only one that thinks conference tourneys are overrated and that doesn't really care how we fare in it? Conference tourney's are important for one-bid leagues and if you underachieved in the regular season or finished middle of the pack in your conference. For example, when we finished fourth in the Big East, but made it to the final game, that was awesome. If we were to finish third of fourth in this league I might want a better showing in the conference tourney. To me if you win the regular season title in your conference I think the tourney is irrelevant in a major conference that will get multiple bids. I'm hoping like all that we win the regular season crown in the AAC. If we do that I honestly could care less what we do in the conference tourney. Would like to win at least one game, but even then I'd like to have extra rest and not have to play three or four days in a row.
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Winning the regular season title is more impressive but playing in the American is will be very helpful to play 2 more top 50 RPI opponents by winning/making the title game. Especially in the coming years when ECU, Tulane, ect join the league. For example, assuming UC maintains the #1 seed, they'd play 4/5 seed and then 2/3 in the championship game. That would get them a 3rd game against two of SMU/Memphis/UConn/UofL. In the unlikely even that they win out in the regular season, that could get them a #1 seed in the NCAA's. Seeding can be helped, plus the pride of knowing you were the best in the league...
 
I really enjoy conference tournaments. The first round of the American's won't be all that exciting (hopefully we don't draw USF), but the semifinals and finals should be great.

Also, potentially 3 nights in a row of Bearcat Basketball is always nice.
 
Not Guilty said:
I really enjoy conference tournaments. The first round of the American's won't be all that exciting (hopefully we don't draw USF), but the semifinals and finals should be great.

Also, potentially 3 nights in a row of Bearcat Basketball is always nice.
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Hopefully we dont draw temple either lol. Those would be 2 teams I wouldn't want to play.
 
Assuming we'll be a top 2 seed, we'll most likely play Temple or UCF since they are the only teams with one win and no one else has less than 3. UCF is in free fall.
 
Maybe I'm just being too confident but I wouldn't be too scared to play Temple again. I don't really expect Pepper to make 7/8 second half threes again and shoot 90% from the line. But then again, ya never know.
 
#BearcatNation said:
Maybe I'm just being too confident but I wouldn't be too scared to play Temple again. I don't really expect Pepper to make 7/8 second half threes again and shoot 90% from the line. But then again, ya never know.
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Same here. I would be much more worried about South Florida than Temple.

And my expectation for this team is to win the regular season championship, win the conference tournament championship, and be able to beat anybody in the tournament that we match up decently with. I expect us to make it to the 2nd weekend of the tournament, and from there, it will be all about match-ups. If we don't have to play any New Mexico type of teams the 2nd weekend, I believe we can get to the Final Four. And once you get there, anything can happen.
 
Scheids21 said:
Assuming we'll be a top 2 seed, we'll most likely play Temple or UCF since they are the only teams with one win and no one else has less than 3. UCF is in free fall.
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I am not putting a lot of stock about the impact of this but I just thought it was interesting.

If the season ended today here is how it would look at the top. UC #1, UL #2,MU and SMU tied, UCONN #5. Clearly the 5 best teams in the conference and UCONN might be better than 3 and 4.

Assuming a first game win...#1 would play their second game against the winner of 4 and 5 (If I am not mistaken). #2 would likely play #3 in the second game.

I am not saying I would want to be the #2 seed going in...but I would rather have the #2 draw. If there were 3 top teams #1 would be clearly the best draw. 4 top teams would be relatively even. 6 top teams would be relatively even. But 5 top teams is better for the 2 seed.

There is a good chance that #1 will get to see a good team (which is also hot) come out of the 4 vs 5 game. #2 could play a hot #3 team, a lukewarm #3, or a much less talented #6.
 
We have 3 "should wins" and 4 "battles" remaining. I would take any version of going 5-2 from here on out. That would give us at least two more quality wins.

That should earn us at least a share of a conference championship and a top 3 seed in the dance.
 
My Expectations today:
1. Win reg season AAC
2. Get to AAC conf tourny title game
3. Win 1st game of NCAA tourny

Reasoning:
1. UC owns a 2.5 game lead so they can even split the 4 remain "tough" games and still win the title if they take care of the rest.

2. Small sample size=anything can happen. If we win reg season title we'll be favored in Memphis, yes, but anything can happen on a given night. Just like when we beat 'Cuse in the Big East semis 2 years ago.

3. With our projected seeding we should handle 1st round match up in NCAA vs 12-16 seed. However, after that I just don't see anything as a given (even for 1 and 2 seeds). In the round of 32 you are basically playing a top 25 team on a neutral site. Last night we beat a top 25 team in UConn, but it was a battle on our home court without one of their shooters.

Surely, if you are a title contender like Syracuse/Arizona types you would be disappointed with an exit before final 4, but all things considered, I don't think UC is in that category. Not to say they cannot win it all, but no one expects that level of success (outside of the Bearcat locker room of course).

I learned after all those disappointing 2nd round exits years ago that these games are pure battle-for-your-life contests. Unless UC wins out I think a 3 or 4 seed is very realistic. Look at how UC beat a Florida State team in 2012 when many considered them a final 4 contender. That game was physical fight between a 3 and 6 seed. Of course ranks/seeding and other paper metrics say you should win, but these lower seeded teams play with nothing to lose.

Just my two cents. In the end I will be satisfied if we win all the games versus lower seeded teams. Anything against a higher seed is house money (sweet 16 game or later) in my opinion.
 
My one and only concern with this team... I feel like they can beat anyone in the country... I also feel like they could lose any game. If SK has an off night, can we score enough points? While UC has proven they can win close games... I dont feel they have the offensive fire power to blow out any team. Would hate to see there season end in the game they have no business losing.
 
In terms of rankings I thought if we could win the first game against UCONN it would mitigate damage in the case we lost to SMU. In other words not a lot of movement downwards if we happen to lose (knock on wood). On the other hand we can't jump up much right now with a win unless teams above us lose which hasn't happened yet.

I think we have already done our part to hold our ground for the most part this week. We could potentially drop a little with a loss but we won't jump many teams with a win either. Bottom line I think we remain between top 5 and top 10 either way.
 
Regular season league champion, at least semi's in league tourny, Sweet 16 or better. However, if the only thing I will be hugely disappointed in would be if they fail to win the reg season title. We all know that a tournament it just takes one subpar game. That said I think they are built mentally for that type atmosphere.
 
I expect us to win the conference outright. To be honest I don't carry much weight on the conference tourney. (that is just me) I expect us to be a 3 seed in the NCAA and make the Sweet 16. I would like to get to the elite 8 but I expect us to get to the Sweet 16 match ups pending.
 
I agree with BCJ and UCalum08.

Conference Champs. Win at least one game in conference tourney (semifinals). Make it to the second week and beyond in the NCAA dance.
 

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