Projecting the RPI and NCAA tourney

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ralph1950

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live-rpi.com projects my beloved Bearcats at season's end will have an RPI of 81. This high of a RPI number has in the past meant NIT. The team will need a strong finish, I think no less than 12-6 in the Big East and no less than the semi finals of the Big East Tourney to get into the NCAA Tourney. It is looking more and more that the weak OOC SOS is going to come back and bite the Bearcats.
 
ralph1950 said:
live-rpi.com projects my beloved Bearcats at season's end will have an RPI of 81. This high of a RPI number has in the past meant NIT. The team will need a strong finish, I think no less than 12-6 in the Big East and no less than the semi finals of the Big East Tourney to get into the NCAA Tourney. It is looking more and more that the weak OOC SOS is going to come back and bite the Bearcats.
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This team holds it's destiny in these last 10 games. No reason why we couldn't and shouldn't win 7 of the next 10. We do that and we are in, no matter what the RPI ends up as. Hopefully Mick's poor coaching at the beginning of the season doesn't cost this team a chance to compete at the end of the season. These guys are good and would be a fun and dangerous team to watch in March.
 
Big wins on road and finishing strong will be huge. I think if we finish top 5 in Beast we are in.
 
When these RPI predictors calculate this stuff, they have to guess who wins which games. My question is which games did they have UC win/lose. That will go a long way into determining the RPI.
 
I think I read this last year. If not please correct me if I'm wrong but I believe I read that since the expansion of the BE no team finishing 500 in the league failed to make the Dance. I think this was brought up last year when everyone was discussing how many BE teams would make the field. If the Cats finish 12-6 I will be shocked if they are not invited. &-3 in the last 10 gets us to 12-6. Very doable. Can't see the NCAA taking other teams wh finish behind us in the league because they have a higher RPI. 12-6 puts us top five in BE. There will be at least 5 BE teams in the field.
 
JasonS said:
When these RPI predictors calculate this stuff, they have to guess who wins which games. My question is which games did they have UC win/lose. That will go a long way into determining the RPI.
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For example live-rpi predictor showing if Cats go 9-1 in last 10 games the RPI number will move up to 49. However, the predictor shows the chance of UC going 9-1 in last 10 is only 2%.
 
The first year in the Big East ( Andy Kennedy's year) we went 500 in the league and did not make it. Big OOC wins that year at vandy and LSU ( who made the final four). Syracuse took our spot when they hit the half court shot and went on to win the BE Tourney
 
WAITE HOYT 2 said:
I think I read this last year. If not please correct me if I'm wrong but I believe I read that since the expansion of the BE no team finishing 500 in the league failed to make the Dance. I think this was brought up last year when everyone was discussing how many BE teams would make the field. If the Cats finish 12-6 I will be shocked if they are not invited. &-3 in the last 10 gets us to 12-6. Very doable. Can't see the NCAA taking other teams wh finish behind us in the league because they have a higher RPI. 12-6 puts us top five in BE. There will be at least 5 BE teams in the field.
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I remember Bobby, interviewed by ESPN at selection time during his one year at Kansas State, when Joe Lunardi had K-State out of tourney, saying to ESPN that no Big 12 team with a 12-6 record, which K-State had at the time, had ever been left out of the Tourney and K-State was in. Guess what, K-State went to the NIT. There is a first time for everything.
 
ralph1950 said:
I remember Bobby, interviewed by ESPN at selection time during his one year at Kansas State, when Joe Lunardi had K-State out of tourney, saying to ESPN that no Big 12 team with a 12-6 record, which K-State had at the time, had ever been left out of the Tourney and K-State was in. Guess what, K-State went to the NIT. There is a first time for everything.
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Nothing against the Big 12 but the Big 12 is no Big East when it comes to basketball. The bottom half of the Big 12 is garbage nearly every year.
 
C I N C Y said:
The first year in the Big East ( Andy Kennedy's year) we went 500 in the league and did not make it. Big OOC wins that year at vandy and LSU ( who made the final four). Syracuse took our spot when they hit the half court shot and went on to win the BE Tourney
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That was probably the biggest snub in NCAA history, along with Missouri State that same year. Cincinnati currently has two excellent wins @UConn and @Georgetown. Most bubble teams will not have 2 top 25 RPI wins, let alone two on the road. If they beat Marquette (at least once), Louisville and Seton Hall (they have a really high RPI), I do not see how a team with 4 or 5 top 50 wins is left out...let alone on the bubble.
 
C I N C Y, please correct me if I'm wrong but Andy Kennedy did not coach UC when they entered the BE. The first year we went in was MC's first year as coach. One of us is mistaken. I no MC didn't finsh 500 in the league until last year.
 
C I N C Y, I stand corrected you are right. Andy did lead us the first year and we were 8-8. Thanks for correcting me. Old age must be catching up.
 
JasonS said:
Nothing against the Big 12 but the Big 12 is no Big East when it comes to basketball. The bottom half of the Big 12 is garbage nearly every year.
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The Big East is not that good this year in basketball. It's going to hurt UC, just hopefully not too much.
 
JasonS said:
I agree this year. But 9 years out of 10, the Big East is much, much better than the Big 12.
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Past years have nothing to do with this year though. The whole argument was that conf. record as explained by Ralphie doesn't matter and cited KSU as the example to which you refuted that the Big 12 is no Big East. Well the Big 12 that year was probably just as good as the Big East this year. Just having a .500 record isn't going to cut it this year when the overall Big East is down.
 
TheLongHaul said:
Past years have nothing to do with this year though. The whole argument was that conf. record as explained by Ralphie doesn't matter and cited KSU as the example to which you refuted that the Big 12 is no Big East. Well the Big 12 that year was probably just as good as the Big East this year. Just having a .500 record isn't going to cut it this year when the overall Big East is down.
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My point was that the Big 12 that year wasn't very good and frankly, the Big East this year, while not what it was last year, is still better than the Big 12 that year. 9-9 is not going to get it done this year. I think you have to be 11-7 to be comfortably in. I think 10-8 needs a good run in Big East tourney. Looking at the other conferences, there are really no power houses this year. The Big 12 is good at the top with Kansas, Baylor, Missouri, and Texas. They are bad at the bottom. The ACC is not strong this year. Duke is ranked in the top 10 because they are Duke. UNC is not great this year at all. Florida State is ok and so is Virginia. The SEC is one good team (UK) and two other decent teams in Vandy and Florida. The Big 10 has OSU and then a decent group of Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. The Pac 12 is garbage. In terms of the power conferences and depth, the Big 10 and Big East are probably the two deepest leagues.
 

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