Computer Numbers/Bracketology Thread

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WAITE HOYT 2 said:
our we in now??
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If I remember correctly the 2006 team finished with a RPI of #40 and missed the NCAA tournament. Coincidentally that team had a big Senior Night win (just as this years team did)against West Virginia that many fans and "experts" predicted had punched UC's ticket.

UC proceeded to lose their first game in the Big East tourney on a last second heav from Syracuse's Mcnamara.

Again, every body still felt Cincy was safe but they ended up being snubbed.

The scenarios for the 2006 team and this years team seem eerily familiar. Bottom line is we NEED to beat UCONN.
 
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TheShoeFits said:
If I remember correctly the 2006 team finished with a RPI of #40 and missed the NCAA tournament. Coincidentally that team had a big Senior Night win (just as this years team did)against West Virginia that many fans and "experts" predicted had punched UC's ticket.

UC proceeded to lose their first game in the Big East tourney on a last second heav from Syracuse's Mcnamara.

Again, ever body still felt Cincy was safe but they ended up being snubbed.

The scenarios for the 2006 team and this years team seem eerily familiar. Bottom line is we NEED to beat UCONN.
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Thanks for the info
 
There are too many moving parts to think we are in right now. If a bunch of teams who would otherwise not be in the NCAA Tourney end up winning their Conference Tournament, that means there are fewer spots for bubble teams. We play UCONN in the first game - if we drop it, I wouldn't like our chances to get in, especially if another team besides Temple wins the whole thing. That would mean the Committee would have to take Temple, the conference winner, and at least UC...and pass over UCONN (assuming they lose) just to get to us. Despite beating them twice already, I see that game as a must win or we are probably out. Does anyone really think the AAC gets more than 3 teams in? I don't. Most of the pundits don't. The Bracketologists have UCONN, Tulsa, and UC all bunched up with Temple being marginally ahead of us as being in the field. So basically, the conference tournament is going to decide who goes and who doesn't...and we owe UCONN one since they've beaten us the last couple of years.
 
Bearcatmatt said:
There are too many moving parts to think we are in right now. If a bunch of teams who would otherwise not be in the NCAA Tourney end up winning their Conference Tournament, that means there are fewer spots for bubble teams. We play UCONN in the first game - if we drop it, I wouldn't like our chances to get in, especially if another team besides Temple wins the whole thing. That would mean the Committee would have to take Temple, the conference winner, and at least UC...and pass over UCONN (assuming they lose) just to get to us. Despite beating them twice already, I see that game as a must win or we are probably out. Does anyone really think the AAC gets more than 3 teams in? I don't. Most of the pundits don't. The Bracketologists have UCONN, Tulsa, and UC all bunched up with Temple being marginally ahead of us as being in the field. So basically, the conference tournament is going to decide who goes and who doesn't...and we owe UCONN one since they've beaten us the last couple of years.
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I think we are in now. I think Temple is in. if we beat UCONN they are out.
 
Hey, if we win out then none of this matters...but then I'd be worried about getting an 8-9 seed. Bleh.
 
Bearcatmatt said:
Hey, if we win out then none of this matters...but then I'd be worried about getting an 8-9 seed. Bleh.
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I'll bet my house that we are in the 7/10 match up with Xavier as the 2 seed or 8/9 with x as the 1. But the committee would definitely want that to be a game .
 
mdchick said:
I'll bet my house that we are in the 7/10 match up with Xavier as the 2 seed or 8/9 with x as the 1. But the committee would definitely want that to be a game .
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I thought they attempted to avoid rematch games until the Sweet 16, or was that only the Round of 64? I wouldn't mind a rematch with X - I think they're the better team this year, but I like grudge matches...and I would hope we'd be chomping at the bit to get a rematch. Who knows? We gotta get in first.
 
Bearcatmatt said:
I thought they attempted to avoid rematch games until the Sweet 16, or was that only the Round of 64? I wouldn't mind a rematch with X - I think they're the better team this year, but I like grudge matches...and I would hope we'd be chomping at the bit to get a rematch. Who knows? We gotta get in first.
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The committee tries to prevent regular season rematches in the first round but it does not supersede other constraints (like region balance, regional proximity, etc). Oklahoma State and Oregon matched a 5/12 game a few years ago, so did UNLV and Cal recently.
 
This is for all of you that are saying not to worry UC is already in. Can anyone give me an example of two bubble teams that played in the first round of a conference tourney and the Tournament Committee took both the winner, and loser of that game? To me Committee members are like politicians, you just can't trust them. As for the Bearcats, I say just go win 3 three games, then there are no questions.
 
Bearcatmatt said:
I thought they attempted to avoid rematch games until the Sweet 16, or was that only the Round of 64? I wouldn't mind a rematch with X - I think they're the better team this year, but I like grudge matches...and I would hope we'd be chomping at the bit to get a rematch. Who knows? We gotta get in first.
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They do fun round possible round of 32 match ups all the time, they did it with Wichita state and Kansas a couple of years ago and st. Joes Villanova the year that uconn won it all uconn beat st. Joes in overtime so that never happened. But the committee won't admit it, but they definitely look for matches that give people extra reasons to watch/talk about/ make free advertisement for the tourney.
 
TheShoeFits said:
If I remember correctly the 2006 team finished with a RPI of #40 and missed the NCAA tournament. Coincidentally that team had a big Senior Night win (just as this years team did)against West Virginia that many fans and "experts" predicted had punched UC's ticket.

UC proceeded to lose their first game in the Big East tourney on a last second heav from Syracuse's Mcnamara.

Again, every body still felt Cincy was safe but they ended up being snubbed.

The scenarios for the 2006 team and this years team seem eerily familiar. Bottom line is we NEED to beat UCONN.
Click to expand...

If I remember correctly we got snubbed that year because Armeen Kirkland got hurt midway through the season after we had accumulated a couple of wins that helped our resume. Committee said we didn't do enough without him to deserve a bid. No injuries this year to worry about. I do agree though, it is hard not to think about 2006 when thinking about the situation we are in now.
 
'05-'06 team went 6-10 to finish the year, had a big home win vs. West Virginia to close the year that most people thought was a tourney clincher. Lost on that f'ing McNamara shot in the BE Tourney 1st round and got absolutely screwed on the tourney bid.

That entire season was a gut punch.
 
Doogle said:
'05-'06 team went 6-10 to finish the year, had a big home win vs. West Virginia to close the year that most people thought was a tourney clincher. Lost on that f'ing McNamara shot in the BE Tourney 1st round and got absolutely screwed on the tourney bid.

That entire season was a gut punch.
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At times this season reminded me of that. Remember we blew out Syracuse in the Carrier Dome late in the season and then lost on that shot. I also remember Muhammed's half court shot hitting the rim too.
 
Cincy remains a 9 seed after the St Mary's loss - Lunardi now has Cuse/St Mary's as 10 seeds and playing in Dayton. UConn as the first team OUT.

Big games today:
Pitt/Cuse - play in game most likely
Colorado/Wash St - Colorado is a 9 seed in ESPN bracket and Wash St is 9-21, cannot lose
Oregon St/Arizona State - Oregon State outside looking in, a loss would eliminate them
 
Lunardi has moved us into the field and out of the last four in.


Currently we are an 9 seed matching up against wichita state with Nova next.


And he has uconn as the first 4 out... which means this game is going to be absolutely huge for them.

we need to hold them and finally beat them in a tourney game

RPI keeps climbing as we are up to a 37. had we beat houston we could have been top 30
 
kskenyon4 said:
Cincy remains a 9 seed after the St Mary's loss - Lunardi now has Cuse/St Mary's as 10 seeds and playing in Dayton. UConn as the first team OUT.

Big games today:
Pitt/Cuse - play in game most likely
Colorado/Wash St - Colorado is a 9 seed in ESPN bracket and Wash St is 9-21, cannot lose
Oregon St/Arizona State - Oregon State outside looking in, a loss would eliminate them
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I think Pitt is a lock so I'm really rooting for them to beat the snot out of Syracuse. Plus I never liked Boeheim.
 

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