Rutgers Predictions

[ready2go]

That's your takeaway from this game? Wow.

A road win against a team that really gets up for ranked opponents (4-2 the last two years) and they didn't just squeak by them, they maintained a double-digit lead for the majority of the game. They were only a 4.5 point favorite.

I see

 

[Bearcat04]

Or sit there and claim that you like the direction of the team THUS FAR....Gotcha

We are currently ranked and have lost 3 games by a total of 8 points. I'm not ecstatic right now because an experienced team should not lose 3 in a row at home, but I have no idea how you can dredge up that much negativity for this team.

Already...
2 Top 50 RPI wins (t15th best)
6 Top 100 RPI wins (t9th best)

You really need to watch a lot more basketball if you think that is horseshit.

 

[bearcat jeff]

Or sit there and claim that you like the direction of the team THUS FAR....Gotcha

R2G I like 14-3 a helluva lot better than 3-14. I do think the offense will improve, but I don't get why fans can't see and accept this team for who it is and embrace them winning. Even with improvement this team will be streaky offensively. They don't have pure shooters or natural scorers and they have average basketball iq. What you want to see isn't going to happen imo. While I believe they will become more efficient they are going to be hard to watch at times and others, when shots are falling, be fun to watch. It just is what it is and they are who they are. You're just not going to get a well oiled offensive machine from this team, but do think it can be better than it is.

 

[UCalum08]

R2G I like 14-3 a helluva lot better than 3-14. I do think the offense will improve, but I don't get why fans can't see and accept this team for who it is and embrace them winning. Even with improvement this team will be streaky offensively. They don't have pure shooters or natural scorers and they have average basketball iq. What you want to see isn't going to happen imo. While I believe they will become more efficient they are going to be hard to watch at times and others, when shots are falling, be fun to watch. It just is what it is and they are who they are. You're just not going to get a well oiled offensive machine from this team, but do think it can be better than it is.

Bearcat Jeff, you nailed it this thought came into my head last night. I will no longer say comments about the offense because it is what it is. It will not change this year and the only thing I hope and pray changes is the players ability to finish around the rim. Last night there was too much hesitation, pump faking when defenders were not even leaving their feet and jumping away from the defense. That needs to change. Our offense will struggle to score due to the fact we have no serious post game which makes it easier to defend our guards, which makes is harder for our guards to drive to the basket. I do think there are little changes in the offense that could make things easier but I'll leave that up to the coaches. It would be nice for SK to get back on track and stop standing around the 3 and become a scorer again. But for the most part, the offense is what we see and its not going to change.

 

[bearcat jeff]

Better passing, screening, and spacing will help but like I said they will still struggle at times.

 

[Hicks' Guns]

And to add to that, cash had a few 3 pointers that went down but were prayers at the end of the shot clock which weren't the best of shots. He shot the ball like 18 times he should have points, which I don't mind because I like when he is a scoring pg and not a set up pg.

I am really concerned how this team can't finish, they avoid contact at will. Like I said before, hopefully they start playing with confidence around the rim now that they won BC tonight was ugly.

They're not prayers when Cash shoots them. He has consistently shot well from 3...even the ones 5-7 feet beyond the line.

 

[JumpinJack5]

They're not prayers when Cash shoots them. He has consistently shot well from 3...even the ones 5-7 feet beyond the line.

I just thought of something the coaching staff should do-find tape of SK as a redshirt frosh and show it to him. He needs to see what he looked like when he was a scorer and not just a shooter. His ability to finish in traffic was second to none, and then he lost his confidence.

 

[Hicks' Guns]

I was very happy with the win last night:

-Cash 33 minutes and NO turnovers (on top of his points)
-Rubles 11 rebounds and only 1 three-pointer taken
-72% FT shooting
-15 Offensive Rebounds (+4) and +6 total
-After a woeful stretch, Jackson with 8 rebounds, 2 blocks and no turnovers
-1 TO in the first half (although Parker and Rubles combined for the remaining 5 in the 2nd half)


-Turnovers, rebounding and FT shooting were an issue in recent losses. All good tonight.

The huge minutes by Jermaine were mentioned but our defense and rebounding were off the charts tonight. You could tell the effort there was kicked up a notch, which is actually a little frustrating because just play at that level all the time guys. Sustain that level. That's cleary what sparked our runs in the previous two seasons was playing at that 5th gear all the time.

I thought the offense was a little better again...by no means fluid. But there was more movement/cutting for the most part,and less standing around (still some in the 2nd half for sure though). It's still not my cup of tea but the movement and getting the ball into the paint period helped.

Only Complaints:
-Mbodj and Nyarsuk continue to not do much (including inability to finish when under the hoop). I liked that Mick had Jackson and Rubles out there at the same time though. If the matchup allows it, I would be in favor of having that lineup out there more often.
-Not a lot of minutes from Shaq.
-No reliable ball handler besides Cash. He is clearly the MVP. Take him away, and we are screwed.

 

[ready2go]

We are currently ranked and have lost 3 games by a total of 8 points. I'm not ecstatic right now because an experienced team should not lose 3 in a row at home, but I have no idea how you can dredge up that much negativity for this team.

Already...
2 Top 50 RPI wins (t15th best)
6 Top 100 RPI wins (t9th best)

You really need to watch a lot more basketball if you think that is horseshit.

Like I said, THUS FAR, I am not happy with the direction of this team. We have regressed.

Take off your skirt, put your pom poms down and look at what is in front of you. We arent going to win too many games with defense alone. As we have ALREADY seen

The biggest problem I have is how we were fed all this BS about Gates being gone and the offense was going to have a different look.

Thats fine, if it is what it is and under Mick were not going to have an offense, then tell it like it is. Quit putting blame on the players

 

[bearcat jeff]

Like I said, THUS FAR, I am not happy with the direction of this team. We have regressed.

Take off your skirt, put your pom poms down and look at what is in front of you. We arent going to win too many games with defense alone. As we have ALREADY seen

The biggest problem I have is how we were fed all this BS about Gates being gone and the offense was going to have a different look.

Thats fine, if it is what it is and under Mick were not going to have an offense, then tell it like it is. Quit putting blame on the players

R2G I agree schematically things need to change but you can't exonerate the players. They are getting looks and missing them even at point blank range. They are very weak going to the basket and finishing and missing wide open 3s at an unacceptable clip. There ample blame for both coaches and players and all have to take responsibility to fix it.

 

[Bearcat04]

Like I said, THUS FAR, I am not happy with the direction of this team. We have regressed.

Take off your skirt, put your pom poms down and look at what is in front of you. We arent going to win too many games with defense alone. As we have ALREADY seen

The biggest problem I have is how we were fed all this BS about Gates being gone and the offense was going to have a different look.

Thats fine, if it is what it is and under Mick were not going to have an offense, then tell it like it is. Quit putting blame on the players

We've lost 3 of 5 games and are still ranked #14 Sagarin, #16 BPI, and #18 Pomeroy (3 of the best rating systems, Massey not up to date). That is not horseshit. I don't think anyone is arguing that they haven't hit a rough stretch, but it's not like they fell to a bubble team that is getting blown out.

If regression is never trailing in what was considered a tough road game then I hope they keep on regressing!

 

[bearcat jeff]

Here's the thing. Over the past 5 games UC has averaged 55.4 shots a game. That's not enough, especially for a poor shooting team. Three of those 5 games they have either shot 1 more shot or the same amount of shots as their opponents, which means poor offensive rebounding and they are not creating turnovers. Cincinnati has become a half court team. The pace needs to quicken on both ends and yes they need to establish some form of halfcourt identity. UC needs to be getting 60-65 shots a game to be effective.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

Like I said, THUS FAR, I am not happy with the direction of this team. We have regressed.

Take off your skirt, put your pom poms down and look at what is in front of you. We arent going to win too many games with defense alone. As we have ALREADY seen

The biggest problem I have is how we were fed all this BS about Gates being gone and the offense was going to have a different look.

Thats fine, if it is what it is and under Mick were not going to have an offense, then tell it like it is. Quit putting blame on the players

I think the thought was or at least the hope was that we would have a big down there that could do something down low. At least with Gates when he got the ball down there he was strong when he wanted to be. Gates did limit this offense, but at the same time with no post presence it limits the offense worse. I was watching a little bit of the Duke game yesterday and their big down there (don't know name) was solid. I noticed that every time he rebounded and went for a putback his feet were square to the basket and he was facing the rim and he went up strong with no fear. That is how you have to play down low or you won't be successful. We don't have that and will not have that this year. Mbodj just doesn't have what it takes. Maybe next year Nyarsuk will be stronger and can bring a little of that, but we need to start bringing in tougher guys to play down low, even if it's a Connor Barwin.

And I know alot want to see the run and gun offense but I don't think Mick will ever sacrifice defense in the name of offense. Let's be honest do we really want to get into shooting matches or high scoring matches with our streaky shooters? I think when it warrants it Mick will implement the press to try and speed things up by creating turnovers, but in low scoriing games like last night and verses tough grind it out teams like St. John's and Rutgers our best chance to win continues to be in the half-court style. With that said we will always struggle in the half-court offense with no post pressence. We can cry about too much dribbling and not enough passing or movement all we want and it is valid, but the reality is if the defense isn't afraid of your bigs and honestly shouldn't be afraid of your bigs then it's too easy to pack the defense just shy of the perimeter and make it tough to get open looks. I think the offense looked alot better the last two games. We started out tense last night but after about eight minutes or so we calmed down and did well to get some open looks in the half-court. The reality is when you're a jump shooting team, your success comes down to how well your shots are falling. Your job on offense is to try to get open looks and we got those.

And on a side note those two deep threes Cash made late in the shot clock I'm not so sure were prayers as much as Cash toying with the D and planning to pop the deep ball with one on the clock. Both times he got his seperation and got his feet square and took a clean shot. After the second one he had a big smile on his face. He's made that shot at a better percentage than any other shot this offense has been able to generate.

 

[UCalum08]

Here's the thing. Over the past 5 games UC has averaged 55.4 shots a game. That's not enough, especially for a poor shooting team. Three of those 5 games they have either shot 1 more shot or the same amount of shots as their opponents, which means poor offensive rebounding and they are not creating turnovers. Cincinnati has become a half court team. The pace needs to quicken on both ends and yes they need to establish some form of halfcourt identity. UC needs to be getting 60-65 shots a game to be effective.

Bingo!! I have thought this as well. I thought we were suppose to be a run and gun team. There is no question this team is better when the tempo gets pushed. I understand some teams you don't want to do that to but that was suppose to be our identity going into the season. I think when we went to the Vegas tourney we were pushing the ball. What happened to that? The problem has been we have zero identity on offense. We have the speed, depth, and stamina to run and gun, what is holding us back?

 

[david aka the TYZ]

Here's the thing. Over the past 5 games UC has averaged 55.4 shots a game. That's not enough, especially for a poor shooting team. Three of those 5 games they have either shot 1 more shot or the same amount of shots as their opponents, which means poor offensive rebounding and they are not creating turnovers. Cincinnati has become a half court team. The pace needs to quicken on both ends and yes they need to establish some form of halfcourt identity. UC needs to be getting 60-65 shots a game to be effective.

I think you've hit the nail on the head that we are not creating turnovers. Turnovers lead to easy baskets and lord knows we need a few of those every game. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that you get the ball the same amount of times as your opponent. It's not make it take it. To get more shots or possessions you have to a) get turnovers and b) get offensive rebounds. And vice versa not turn the ball over and not give up offensive rebounds. I think pace can be overrated except that in the sense you'll create more turnovers if a team plays rushed. At the same time you'll turn the ball over if you play rushed. It's a double-edged sword. Cash is a sure-handler of the ball and doesn't turn the ball over but I can't say the same for anyone else on this team. We tried to be aggressive vs. Notre Dame and we got several travels and lost dribbles. I'm not sure what the answer is. At the end of the day you have to put the ball in the bucket more times than your opponent. Whether it be with 50 possessions or 70. As games progress and whistles get tighter our defense becomes less effective. We gave up 43 points in the second half yesterday. We foul every time a team puts the ball on the floor and goes to the rim. Mbodj and Jackson have not learned you can't grab at a ball handler when he's going past you and you can't hang your arms out over a player shooting just because he's shorter than you. It's frustrating to watch because you wonder why we never get the calls when we go down low, but if you look back at some of the calls or no calls, which I do when I get to watch a game from home and did yesterday, the refs are consistent. We don't get fouls because their defenders defend straight up. If you defend straight up in this league you will get away with alot of contact. If you put your arms out you will get whistled.

 

[ready2go]

I put it this way. As in, IMO

Last nights game was no different from UC's standpoint as the last few losses.

We had several defensive lapses that left them wide open. Teams hit those shots to beat us, Rutgers did not. When it came to the half court sets, we were no different than past games that we lost. Difference, Cash hit a few deep deep 3's. Therefor IMO we took another step back. We are still relying too much on the 3 and defensively were giving up easy looks that good teams will capitalize on

 

[david aka the TYZ]

I put it this way. As in, IMO

Last nights game was no different from UC's standpoint as the last few losses.

We had several defensive lapses that left them wide open. Teams hit those shots to beat us, Rutgers did not. When it came to the half court sets, we were no different than past games that we lost. Difference, Cash hit a few deep deep 3's. Therefor IMO we took another step back. We are still relying too much on the 3 and defensively were giving up easy looks that good teams will capitalize on

You've admitted as much before that you are a perfectionist so to speak with what you expect from this team, at least you look at the flaws and don't make excuses for them. And that's fine, I think we've come to know that about your game assessments. But by your own admission, if we've played the same the last five games or so, how is it a step back every time? I'll admit maybe we haven't taken a step forward, although I've seen some improvements we can point to, but I don't see the team regressing.

I admittedly did not see the NM game. I was at bowl game and unfortunately just could not watch it. So I can't speak for that game. The St. John's game was a classic, we did not come to play tonight scenario. Inexcusible? Most definitely, but in reality all teams have those. I think the reaction to the ND loss was overexaggerated on this board. Ranked team came in playing well and we lost. We did some things well and didn't do some things well, we hung around and lost a close game. I think what was worse was that it came after losses we shouldn't have had. If we beat St. John's I think we react completely different to losing to ND. Yesterday's game was a tough, gring it out win. We maintained a double-digit lead just about the whole game and matched every run they had. We put up 68 in a half-court, shot-clock game. Have we progressed? I would say no. Have we donesome things differently and done some things well? I'd say yes. We are in a rut. It's a stretch of the season where you're past the easy early season and you haven't hit the intensity of late Feb/March. Teams get run down, injuries become nagging, excuses, excuses, blah, blah, blah. Find ways to put a game in the W column and wait until the team as a whole finds it's rythm.

 

[Bearcat04]

I think you've hit the nail on the head that we are not creating turnovers. Turnovers lead to easy baskets and lord knows we need a few of those every game. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that you get the ball the same amount of times as your opponent. It's not make it take it. To get more shots or possessions you have to a) get turnovers and b) get offensive rebounds. And vice versa not turn the ball over and not give up offensive rebounds. I think pace can be overrated except that in the sense you'll create more turnovers if a team plays rushed. At the same time you'll turn the ball over if you play rushed. It's a double-edged sword. Cash is a sure-handler of the ball and doesn't turn the ball over but I can't say the same for anyone else on this team. We tried to be aggressive vs. Notre Dame and we got several travels and lost dribbles. I'm not sure what the answer is. At the end of the day you have to put the ball in the bucket more times than your opponent. Whether it be with 50 possessions or 70. As games progress and whistles get tighter our defense becomes less effective. We gave up 43 points in the second half yesterday. We foul every time a team puts the ball on the floor and goes to the rim. Mbodj and Jackson have not learned you can't grab at a ball handler when he's going past you and you can't hang your arms out over a player shooting just because he's shorter than you. It's frustrating to watch because you wonder why we never get the calls when we go down low, but if you look back at some of the calls or no calls, which I do when I get to watch a game from home and did yesterday, the refs are consistent. We don't get fouls because their defenders defend straight up. If you defend straight up in this league you will get away with alot of contact. If you put your arms out you will get whistled.

The 43 second half points is a bit deceiving considering Rutgers scored 12 points in the final 100 seconds or so when we were just trying not to foul up double-digits.

As much as I wanted this to be an uptempo team it's not really a great fit because Cash is not the type of PG that is always looking to push the pace. At times he can be effective, but he just doesn't seem comfortable speeding up the game. This team is at its best when they are getting easy scores off its great defense - deflections, steals, and blocks that lead to fastbreak opportunities.

I agree that pace can be very overrated. Of the teams ranked ahead of us only UL, IU, Syracuse, and N.C. State have played at a faster pace this season. It's not like running is a huge key to success in college basketball. It can be if you are really good at it. We are not. It all comes down to the offensive efficiency improving. You need to make your 2-point attempts around the basket. In the NM and SJU 1-point losses they went a combined 20-72 (27%) on 2-point attempts! It would also help if they could consistently get to the FT line. I think if they make 10+ FT per game they are going to be tough to beat.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

The 43 second half points is a bit deceiving considering Rutgers scored 12 points in the final 100 seconds or so when we were just trying not to foul up double-digits.

As much as I wanted this to be an uptempo team it's not really a great fit because Cash is not the type of PG that is always looking to push the pace. At times he can be effective, but he just doesn't seem comfortable speeding up the game. This team is at its best when they are getting easy scores off its great defense - deflections, steals, and blocks that lead to fastbreak opportunities.

I agree that pace can be very overrated. Of the teams ranked ahead of us only UL, IU, Syracuse, and N.C. State have played at a faster pace this season. It's not like running is a huge key to success in college basketball. It can be if you are really good at it. We are not. It all comes down to the offensive efficiency improving. You need to make your 2-point attempts around the basket. In the NM and SJU 1-point losses they went a combined 20-72 (27%) on 2-point attempts! It would also help if they could consistently get to the FT line. I think if they make 10+ FT per game they are going to be tough to beat.

I think to be uptempo, you have to play smart and know the game of basketball. You have to have five guys on the floor that understand spacing and how to create mismatches, how to set screens, how to move without the ball, etc. We simply don't have that. Cash, in my honest opinion, has been playing this half-court offense for three years now and doesn't really know any other way. The players around him are the same way. It's hard to adjust a veteran team to a style you've beat over their heads the last three years. Maybe that's an excuse, but Mick is conservative and is going to put his team in the best position to win. Unfortunately that falls back into the half-court style right now. If Cash were to push the tempo I don't think the other four guys on the floor would know how to react. Maybe I'm wrong. Our players minus Cash have been prone to turnovers when putting the ball on the floor or making bad passes, so I'm not sure what speeding the game up does for us at this point.

 

[Bcatfollower]

The more i watch our bigs play the less confidence i have that strickland will be any different. Where is the new mbodj we were told about? They said last season was lost due to his injury and lack of conditioning... Is he plaing any better? Just a bunch of coaching bs.