Since this board is dying...

[AZ BEARCAT]

Thank you so much for all this exciting information. Man, for one day the site is back. Hope it continues !!!

 

[cincrulz11]

where do you guys think our adjusted efficiency on offense will end up on kenpom?

 

[justinhub2003]

I’ll going to be brave and say top 10 in defense and top 60 on offense.


Kenpom’s preseason rankings were released. We are #44 over all, 2nd in the AAC behind #37 SMU and have an offense ranked in the 70’s and defense is number 24

That thing that concerned me most was the schedule looks not nearly as good as I thought it would. We play no elite teams, have just 1 for sure tier 1 opportunity in the non conference and maybe Baylor as number 2.

 

[ervins84]

I was also at the scrimmage. I'm not nearly as optimistic about what I saw though.

The best part of the night was Logan Johnson really showed his upside. We've really never had a player like him since Cronin has been here. I had seen his YouTube videos but I never thought he looked all that athletic in them but he always looked like a very solid, high iq player who just found ways to get where he wanted. Boy was that wrong. This guy is bouncy but still very smooth basketball wise. I expect to be very frustrated with his lack of playing time this year with Jenifer ahead of him. Sure he's going to make lots of mistakes, but I think long term we'd better by the end of the year if he played a lot. The block he had where he pinned it was super quick... He stole an outlet pass in the first few minutes that I don't know how he got there. The team in Black put him in pick n roll a bunch, and he was physical trying to defend albeit he seemed to be thinking a little bit too much on some of these actions. I'm sure that will improve, but will ultimately be what dictates his playing time.

Cumberland looks like he lost weight. He was noticeably quicker. He was about exactly what everyone expected from him.

Jenifer was 2-9 in the first half, not sure what the final stat line was. He did knock down two or three 3's though, but I think his career shooting is a better predictor of what's to come. Bright side is he actually didn't seem to hesitate to shoot from 3, so hopefully if he's just selective and only takes wide open in rhythm catch and shoot looks, he'll be ok.

Fredericks looked lost to me. Not sure if the competition level is too big of a jump, he just had an off night, or what, but he seemed like just another guy.

Brooks/Eliel/Diarra are all exactly what you thought they were.

Cane's floater game and ability to finish over bigs and in the paint looked good. He knocked down a few 3's too.

Trevor Moore is a very good shooter when catch and shoot. He doesn't do a lot more than that on offense, but that's ok because i don't think he has a very good handle nor is good at creating. The spacing he allows our offense with his shooting ability is important. If he isn't requiring teams to not leave him, we're going to have a very clogged paint.

I see everyone's very excited with Scott. I really just didn't see it. I thought his game was more of a product of his competition. His season is going to tell a lot about how far we go, so hopefully in wrong.


Prince/Hardnett aren't anywhere near ready.

Keith Williams. Still not a good shooter. I think he's our irrational confidence guy, in he's going to take some terrible shots and do some awful stuff, but some nights it will work out fall in the hoop. I did forget about just how athletic he is. He's going to translate that athleticism into high level wing defense for our defense to reach similarly high levels. His ability to create is still lacking, but he will try that's for sure.

I thought we did play with more pace than normal, but it's practice and I've thought that many years before expecting a change. Not falling for that trap again.


I thought our defense overall in the scrimmage was trash. But again, it's October, a scrimmage, and we have the athletes to guard. Add in Cronin's history and I'm sure we'll be a top 30 kpom defense with a chance at cracking the top 15.

This team seemed scrappy in the scrimmage. They played hard. Legitimately very hard. The last five minutes got really intense when the Red team made their run.

Overall predictions:
Win between 20 and 24 games.
Bubble team most of the year that probably gets in and finishes with an 8-12 seed. Maybe win one tournament game.

 

[justinhub2003]

I was also at the scrimmage. I'm not nearly as optimistic about what I saw though.

The best part of the night was Logan Johnson really showed his upside. We've really never had a player like him since Cronin has been here. I had seen his YouTube videos but I never thought he looked all that athletic in them but he always looked like a very solid, high iq player who just found ways to get where he wanted. Boy was that wrong. This guy is bouncy but still very smooth basketball wise. I expect to be very frustrated with his lack of playing time this year with Jenifer ahead of him. Sure he's going to make lots of mistakes, but I think long term we'd better by the end of the year if he played a lot. The block he had where he pinned it was super quick... He stole an outlet pass in the first few minutes that I don't know how he got there. The team in Black put him in pick n roll a bunch, and he was physical trying to defend albeit he seemed to be thinking a little bit too much on some of these actions. I'm sure that will improve, but will ultimately be what dictates his playing time.

Cumberland looks like he lost weight. He was noticeably quicker. He was about exactly what everyone expected from him.

Jenifer was 2-9 in the first half, not sure what the final stat line was. He did knock down two or three 3's though, but I think his career shooting is a better predictor of what's to come. Bright side is he actually didn't seem to hesitate to shoot from 3, so hopefully if he's just selective and only takes wide open in rhythm catch and shoot looks, he'll be ok.

Fredericks looked lost to me. Not sure if the competition level is too big of a jump, he just had an off night, or what, but he seemed like just another guy.

Brooks/Eliel/Diarra are all exactly what you thought they were.

Cane's floater game and ability to finish over bigs and in the paint looked good. He knocked down a few 3's too.

Trevor Moore is a very good shooter when catch and shoot. He doesn't do a lot more than that on offense, but that's ok because i don't think he has a very good handle nor is good at creating. The spacing he allows our offense with his shooting ability is important. If he isn't requiring teams to not leave him, we're going to have a very clogged paint.

I see everyone's very excited with Scott. I really just didn't see it. I thought his game was more of a product of his competition. His season is going to tell a lot about how far we go, so hopefully in wrong.


Prince/Hardnett aren't anywhere near ready.

Keith Williams. Still not a good shooter. I think he's our irrational confidence guy, in he's going to take some terrible shots and do some awful stuff, but some nights it will work out fall in the hoop. I did forget about just how athletic he is. He's going to translate that athleticism into high level wing defense for our defense to reach similarly high levels. His ability to create is still lacking, but he will try that's for sure.

I thought we did play with more pace than normal, but it's practice and I've thought that many years before expecting a change. Not falling for that trap again.


I thought our defense overall in the scrimmage was trash. But again, it's October, a scrimmage, and we have the athletes to guard. Add in Cronin's history and I'm sure we'll be a top 30 kpom defense with a chance at cracking the top 15.

This team seemed scrappy in the scrimmage. They played hard. Legitimately very hard. The last five minutes got really intense when the Red team made their run.

Overall predictions:
Win between 20 and 24 games.
Bubble team most of the year that probably gets in and finishes with an 8-12 seed. Maybe win one tournament game.

Lol if what you saw was did not make you optimistic, I’d love to know your thoughts before you saw the scrimmage.

I saw a team that was better then sk’s senior year and Gary clark’s Freshmen year.

I mean if you came into the scrimmage expecting to see another 30 win team after losing 2 NBA players and a high scoring guy like Washington, then I could understand your statement.,


And what did not see out of Scott that you wanted to see? He literally hit every mid range jumper. Like I’m not sure he missed a mid range shot. For a guy to not just clog the lane, he has to hit the mid range and he has worked really hard and it shows big time.


As for defense, the real scrimmage took place behind closed doors and the score is behind Chad’s pay wall, but it’s certsinly more in line with Cronin style defense. Mick let them go out and have fun in front of the fans.

Also prince didn’t even log a minute, he was out with a minor injury.

IMO fredericks didn’t look great and yet I checked his stats and he still put in double figures and grabbed multiple rebounds. I think he contributes but I think Keith Williams ends up on the floor a lot more in a small ball lineup.


Mick has already stated that cane will play the 2. Meaning Logan is going to have to play some . I’m a huge Logan fan but he still makes a ton of freshman mistakes, some of his post entry passes were just bad and not even to an open guy

 

[ervins84]

The "I'm not nearly as optimistic about what I saw though" should have added as "what I'm reading from others here." Idk how I left that part out. I don't think we suck or anything.

And we're back to why some people stopped posting as much. I didnt wholeheartedly agree with everything you said, so you're response is to just lol. I'm not your enemy, but it's hard to ever read posts like that and feel any other way.

Most of my thoughts were pretty much confirmed outside of Logan's athleticism. He's got a chance to be a special player (long, long way to go).


I don't see any reason to think this year is going to be any different than previous seasons. We'll compete super hard, play good defense, struggle to score, and play at a snail's pace.


As far as Scott, ok great if you think he's going to play the 5, then he can space with a mid range jumper. But if he's on the court with any of the other bigs that's not spacing at all. That's one big who can't score outside of 5 feet + Scott who were HOPING to make 50% of his mid range 15 footers. If that's the upside that's not good. That's 1 point per possession. Below an average possession. Every time he takes a mid range jumper, the other team is going to be pretty content.

 

[cincycpaw]

The "I'm not nearly as optimistic about what I saw though" should have added as "what I'm reading from others here." Idk how I left that part out. I don't think we suck or anything.

And we're back to why some people stopped posting as much. I didnt wholeheartedly agree with everything you said, so you're response is to just lol. I'm not your enemy, but it's hard to ever read posts like that and feel any other way.

Most of my thoughts were pretty much confirmed outside of Logan's athleticism. He's got a chance to be a special player (long, long way to go).


I don't see any reason to think this year is going to be any different than previous seasons. We'll compete super hard, play good defense, struggle to score, and play at a snail's pace.


As far as Scott, ok great if you think he's going to play the 5, then he can space with a mid range jumper. But if he's on the court with any of the other bigs that's not spacing at all. That's one big who can't score outside of 5 feet + Scott who were HOPING to make 50% of his mid range 15 footers. If that's the upside that's not good. That's 1 point per possession. Below an average possession. Every time he takes a mid range jumper, the other team is going to be pretty content.

I didn’t see the scrimmage. But at the end of the season Scott seemed to be getting comfortable in the high post. I think he could have a special year if he can knock that jumper down effectively, cause he can already pass pretty well from that position. And based on what others have written, I’m very excited to see Johnson. And I’m expecting to be utterly frustrated with Micks substitutions and playing Jenifer way too much.

 

[justinhub2003]

And we're back to why some people stopped posting as much. I didnt wholeheartedly agree with everything you said, so you're response is to just lol. I'm not your enemy, but it's hard to ever read posts like that and feel any other way.

Are you saying the key to a thriving message board is everyone ageeing on everything ? Lol. The internet was invented so people could disagree about stuff.

In fact, I’d say a message board that has membership with a singular opinion would be really boring.

All that said. I don’t own the site. I don’t make money off if it fails or succeeds. I didn’t ask to be a mod but rather was asked to be one and I agreed.


In my opinion, the Nevada game killed this board. And with the off season being relatively quiet, it didn’t drive fans back.

I think I picks back up when the season kicks in. But I’ll admit I’ve spent far more of my time on the paid bearcat site as it’s turn more into a normal message board lately and not just for news and such.


I wasn’t being combative. Just curious to what you wanted to see be what you didn’t see. I saw a team that played hard, had guys with good shooting nights and a lot of oohs and ahhs from the crowd. I’m optimistic about the season until I am shown reason not to be. There isn’t an game on the non conference schedule that I don’t think this team can win

 

[ervins84]

What I'm trying to say is a mid range jumper (the worst shot in basketball) is not actual spacing. You have to make those at such an absurd clip to make it an efficient shot. We had one guy all year last year who was over 50% on 2pt jumpers. They aren't great shots for a reason. And if we have one other big on the floor with Scott, we effectively have two players that do not require any attention at all on the perimeter. Now add Jenifer to that lineup. How do we ever score with 3 of those guys on the floor together.

 

[juckerrules]

not sure about some of those KPom stats...according to his site, Jenifer had the highest ORtg of anyone on the team not named Gary

 

[justinhub2003]

not sure about some of those KPom stats...according to his site, Jenifer had the highest ORtg of anyone on the team not named Gary

You gotta compare not just offensive rating, but also usage rating.


Jenifer was rarely used and made nearly 40% of his 3’s and didn’t turn the ball over, so it made him an effiecient player. And he was. Efficienct doesn’t always equal good or productive.

Kenpom is the best there is imo. It’s not perfect but it’s the best, .

 

[sirthought]

I'm just praying Johnson learns the defense ASAP so coach doesn't have an excuse to keep him out of the game.

How Jennifer has ever lasted this long I'll never understand.

I really hope coach gives all the bigs lots of minutes early and lets them get more experience.

 

[justinhub2003]

I'm just praying Johnson learns the defense ASAP so coach doesn't have an excuse to keep him out of the game.

How Jennifer has ever lasted this long I'll never understand.

I really hope coach gives all the bigs lots of minutes early and lets them get more experience.

He’s going to be fine on defense.

It’s his Turnovers that will hold him back. Cane is going to play off ball a lot meaning only jenifer and Johnson are true PG. both have to play.

Jenifer protects the ball and Is a low usuage point guard with an outstanding defensive rating. His 3 point shot is miles ahead of where it was before. He could be one of our better off the catch shooters this year

 

[justinhub2003]

What I'm trying to say is a mid range jumper (the worst shot in basketball) is not actual spacing. You have to make those at such an absurd clip to make it an efficient shot. We had one guy all year last year who was over 50% on 2pt jumpers. They aren't great shots for a reason. And if we have one other big on the floor with Scott, we effectively have two players that do not require any attention at all on the perimeter. Now add Jenifer to that lineup. How do we ever score with 3 of those guys on the floor together.

I wrote a longer repley but my phone died in the process of posting.

It’s not about the effiency of the shot. It’s about him becoming an offensive threat. And we’re not talking Troy caupain one foot inside the 3 point line mid range, we’re talking just a few feet outside the paint. He scored with both his back facing the basket and facing up. He was like 6-6 from mid range, and it’s a great sign to see scoring from a big.


That’s the biggest thing. Seeing reliable scoring from at least one big.

 

[waterhead]

What I'm trying to say is a mid range jumper (the worst shot in basketball) is not actual spacing. You have to make those at such an absurd clip to make it an efficient shot. We had one guy all year last year who was over 50% on 2pt jumpers. They aren't great shots for a reason. And if we have one other big on the floor with Scott, we effectively have two players that do not require any attention at all on the perimeter. Now add Jenifer to that lineup. How do we ever score with 3 of those guys on the floor together.

The mid range jumper is not optimal but if we can get 1 ppp from it without having to throw up late clock prayers it might be the better of those two options. I’ve seen enough hot potato ball in the past to last a lifetime. Last year was an exception with 4 or more capable scorers.

If Scott can hit open shots @ 50 percent from 5-10 feet I’ll take it because we will see worse opportunities than that. Shot clock violations and last second off balance type shit is much worse than the mid range open j.

 

[waterhead]

He’s going to be fine on defense.

It’s his Turnovers that will hold him back. Cane is going to play off ball a lot meaning only jenifer and Johnson are true PG. both have to play.

Jenifer protects the ball and Is a low usuage point guard with an outstanding defensive rating. His 3 point shot is miles ahead of where it was before. He could be one of our better off the catch shooters this year

If Broome spends no time at pg and Cumberland spends no time as defacto pg...then Johnson has a chance to make an impact. I think Jenifer gets a min of 15 mpg at point. Cane could get 5-10. Cumberland 5-10?

I think Johnson is going to have to flat out beat Jenifer at the position to get even 10-15 minutes. That would be a lot for him given the circumstances. I hope he gets a bunch early. Chances are better for 5-10 mpg.

 

[cincrulz11]

If Broome spends no time at pg and Cumberland spends no time as defacto pg...then Johnson has a chance to make an impact. I think Jenifer gets a min of 15 mpg at point. Cane could get 5-10. Cumberland 5-10?

I think Johnson is going to have to flat out beat Jenifer at the position to get even 10-15 minutes. That would be a lot for him given the circumstances. I hope he gets a bunch early. Chances are better for 5-10 mpg.

Johnson can flat out beat Jenifer at the position and still never play. Lets be real here.



Ill just add this here although its not a response to the post I quoted. We have been spoiled by having 2 capable scoring bigs. We are going down to 0. Even if Scott can hit 10 footers, teams will leave him open and live with that shot all day every day. Teams wont guard Brooks. Teams wont guard Jenifer. Teams wont guard Scott. Why would you? Cumberland and Broome are going to have their hands full.



Ill be interested to see how losing Gary and Kyle changes the synergy rating on defense for Justin and Cane. Gary was all world as we know, but Kyle was actually a good rim defender and was top 100 in block% (higher than gary). Neither Cane nor Justin are nearly the defenders their Synergy number would make them look like I dont think. They both struggle at stopping penetration. Brooks can defend the rim, but can he do so without fouling? Scott is a versatile defender, but he's no gary clark.


Lots and lots of questions. It's a good thing the conference is way down. It will give us a chance.

 

[justinhub2003]

Johnson can flat out beat Jenifer at the position and still never play. Lets be real here.



Ill just add this here although its not a response to the post I quoted. We have been spoiled by having 2 capable scoring bigs. We are going down to 0. Even if Scott can hit 10 footers, teams will leave him open and live with that shot all day every day. Teams wont guard Brooks. Teams wont guard Jenifer. Teams wont guard Scott. Why would you? Cumberland and Broome are going to have their hands full.



Ill be interested to see how losing Gary and Kyle changes the synergy rating on defense for Justin and Cane. Gary was all world as we know, but Kyle was actually a good rim defender and was top 100 in block% (higher than gary). Neither Cane nor Justin are nearly the defenders their Synergy number would make them look like I dont think. They both struggle at stopping penetration. Brooks can defend the rim, but can he do so without fouling? Scott is a versatile defender, but he's no gary clark.


Lots and lots of questions. It's a good thing the conference is way down. It will give us a chance.

The conference is not way down imo. It’s just not as strong on top but the conference 1-9 is tough. Legit chance this conference finishes with 9 teams in the top 100. Winning on the road is going to be tough every night

 

[cincrulz11]

The conference is not way down imo. It’s just not as strong on top but the conference 1-9 is tough. Legit chance this conference finishes with 9 teams in the top 100. Winning on the road is going to be tough every night

its got a decent shot to be a 1 bid league with that bid being a 7-10 seed. the league lost a ton of talent. it might be a more competitive conference, but no teams in the top 30 isn't a very good conference.

 

[Alum2013]

He’s going to be fine on defense.

It’s his Turnovers that will hold him back. Cane is going to play off ball a lot meaning only jenifer and Johnson are true PG. both have to play.

Jenifer protects the ball and Is a low usuage point guard with an outstanding defensive rating. His 3 point shot is miles ahead of where it was before. He could be one of our better off the catch shooters this year

Jennifer is trash on defense against any team that's not playing high school point guards. Against some of the teams we have in the AAC he's adequate enough but people need to stop acting like he's some great defender. He's just not.