Why would the Big 10 be forced to go to 16. This is all about money and they are doing fine with the Big 10 network. They will add schools only if it makes sense, not because they have to. If the scenerio you outline occurs, then we are SOL as will KU, KSU. Iowa State, Baylor and TCU. Plus why would SEC want to take Louisville when they have UK in Kentucky. I can see them going after 2 of the ACC schools to try and get to 16, but they aren't just going to take teams willy nilly. If the ACC does lose 2 schools, then we will be a better fit academically to fill one of the spots than UL is.
Syracuse and Pittsburgh "likely gone" to ACC
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Why would the Big 10 be forced to go to 16. This is all about money and they are doing fine with the Big 10 network. They will add schools only if it makes sense, not because they have to. If the scenerio you outline occurs, then we are SOL as will KU, KSU. Iowa State, Baylor and TCU. Plus why would SEC want to take Louisville when they have UK in Kentucky. I can see them going after 2 of the ACC schools to try and get to 16, but they aren't just going to take teams willy nilly. If the ACC does lose 2 schools, then we will be a better fit academically to fill one of the spots than UL is.
If the SEC, PAC-16, and ACC all have 16 teams then the Big 10 will have to have 16 teams to play the game. It is called keeping up with the Jones's.
JasonS
Football Moderator
It's not about academics. Unless UC is trying to get into the Ivy League, it isn't going to matter. A conference is going to look at what it gains by adding a team. It will be in this order:
1. Money - Does this school bring us a new market that we can expand our television reach to?
2. Market Size - Ties into #1. If the options are a school with a market size of 30 in a decent sized city and a school in the middle of the country without much else, with all things being equal the larger media market will win.
3. Fan Base/Alumni Base - The conferences are going to want larger fan bases/Alumni bases to help expand the reach of their brand.
4. Athletic Facilities - Facilities are important because they preceed success on the field. Without great facilities, you cannot attract the best athletes.
5. Athletic Success - Conferences will look at recent and historic athletic success to make sure a school is strengthening the conference portfolio.
6. How the school fits with other schools - This is where academics and other less important things fit in the mix. If a school passes everything above, the member institutions will look at this as the final piece. It won't be a deal breaker but could be used as a tie breaker assuming everything else is even.
JasonS
Football Moderator
Eventually we will be looking at 4, 16 team leagues. I think Ralph is actually right on this one. The Big 10 is going to have to make some concessions to reach that number. Notre Dame is the big piece for them and as long as Notre Dame is holding out, the Big 10 will not go to 16. They will stop at 14 and wait until Notre Dame feels like they have to get in a conference. If they never do, the Big 10 will eventually reach that 16 number but it could be 10 years or more before they do.
Missouri wants to be in the Big 10, BAD. The Big 10 doesn't want them right now. Once Oklahoma and Texas (2 schools they would like to add) go to the Pac 12, the Big 10 will have to start making moves or be left behind. The Big 10 wanted Pitt but Pitt didn't want the Big 10. The Big 10 wants Rutgers or Syracuse to get into that NYC market. No luck with Syracuse but Rutgers is still out there. There aren't many schools left for the Big Ten to add. Pitt and Syracuse, UCONN and Rutgers are all likely off the board. So is WVU. South Florida doesn't make much sense for the Big 10. UC doesn't make much sense just because OSU doesn't want it and they feel the Ohio market is covered. Louisville could make some sense for the Big 10 along with Kansas and Missouri down the road. Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, UC, South Florida could be playing musical chairs in an effort to not be left behind.
Bearcat_NTS
Well-known member
Things don't work exactly like that. Although they should. Just because you add a new team it doesn't necessarily ensure larger revenue, its just splitting a bigger pie more ways. Conferences like the Big 10 and ACC have a certain reputation that they'd like to hold for now (yes they are snobby). Thats why Texas Tech was shut out of the ACC as a partner for Texas. That is why Oklahoma was never considered for the Big 10 while Texas (a well recognized institution) was. Cincinnati and Louisville make mores sense for the ACC than Rutgers does, and they beat them in all the things you listed accept the last one, which unfortunately is important to them.
Once things get crazy you are right, they will be trying to get any teams to compete with other conferences but unlike the SEC and PAC??, the ACC and Big 10 value that "prestige" factor especially academically.
JasonS
Football Moderator
You are right about splitting the pie but I believe the newer contracts were negotiated with some "out" clausses or renegotiating windows for conference expansion/realignment. I don't know when the SEC, ACC, and Big 10's contracts are up for negotiation again but I know the Pac 12 was pretty smart in how they went into this most recent deal. It will be more money in the long run, even if it means less for a couple years.
True, but the ACC apparently has a stipulation that an institution must be in the top 150 to be considered for entrance. If this is the case, then UC will be a candidate for entrance, while UL or WVU would not. Money, which is part of market size (as you mentioned), is also in our favor. Fan base and athletic facilities are definitely stronger for UL and WVU. The the first 2 points you make supercede any of the others.
I do think that acedemics also play a role in this, as member institutions also want to make sure that there is acedemic synergy. I would rank it higher than #6. It has been rumored that the ACC was interested in Texas joining, but when they insisted that Texas Tech come along as a package deal, the ACC was not interested. This was due to TT's poor acedemic standing. Otherwise adding both of these institutions would have been a no brainer.
JasonS
Football Moderator
You make good points and I hope you are right but something tells me that these conferences are going to start loosening their standards a bit. I don't know how far below 150 UL and WVU are but if UL is at 165, I don't think that is a deal breaker anymore.
The Big 10 already loosened theirs by adding Nebraska who is by far the weakest academic school in the conference.
JasonS
Football Moderator
Zagoria reporting Villanova applying for admittance into ACC.
TheLivingLegend
Well-known member
JasonS
Football Moderator
If the Big 12 can find a way to keep Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, they could feasibly lose Texas A&M and add three teams to the league. Louisville and Cincinnati would have to be options. Memphis could be a possibility as well. If WVU decided not to go to the SEC, you could also add them and South Florida and have a pretty decent 12 team conference for football and basketball.
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas St
Missouri
Iowa State
Baylor
Louisville
Cincinnati
Memphis
WVU
South Florida
The only two of these 12 that don't fit geographically at all are WVU and South Florida (more them than WVU). This is what UC and UL should be pushing for. They should be on the phone with Texas and Oklahoma and say, "wait a minute, what about this for an idea?"
Edit: It's actually 14 (I threw Memphis and S Florida in for the heck of it).
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas St
Missouri
Iowa State
Baylor
Louisville
Cincinnati
Memphis
WVU
South Florida
The only two of these 12 that don't fit geographically at all are WVU and South Florida (more them than WVU). This is what UC and UL should be pushing for. They should be on the phone with Texas and Oklahoma and say, "wait a minute, what about this for an idea?"
Edit: It's actually 14 (I threw Memphis and S Florida in for the heck of it).
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JasonS
Football Moderator
Does Villanova have a football team??
haha. Yeah apparantly they do. In all actuality, the Big East has been trying to get them to move up to FBS football for several years now.
TheLongHaul
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I'm guessing at this point just about every school in the Big East is applying for either the ACC, B10, or SEC. I bet UC has applied as well.
TheLivingLegend
Well-known member
Not a bad list at all.
DontMissHim
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Yep, No chance (IMO) UC gets an invite to the Big 10. OSU would never allow it...and, as someone posted earlier, Big 10 still has academic requirements that they will be pretty firm on. They currently have an academic member only in University of Chicago. Thats why I think Rutgers will end up in the Big 10- and if the big east splits up and no conference allows ND to play their other sports without football- ND could end up in the Big 10. IMO, thats all the Big 10 would do. Add Rutgers and ND. I could see Mizzou, but as another poster said- Big 10 isn't interested in them at all.
Ultimately, I see UC ending up in a conference of the teams left behind but it will still be a decent conference.
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Bearcat_NTS
Well-known member
I know that beggars can't be choosers but I want no part of a conference with Texas. They should go off with ND and BYU and be Independent in football and part of the ACC/Big10 for Olympic sports.
JasonS
Football Moderator
I get what you're saying but as you also said, beggers can't be choosers. It is important for UC to try to align themselves with a conference that has at least one major football program. That is the only way UC will have any stability in the near future. Unless Texas goes to the ACC and Oklahoma stays in the Big 12 I laid out before, I don't see any other way (realistically) to do this if you are UC or UL for that matter.
JasonS
Football Moderator
By the way, I think WVU has a much too inflated view of themselves right about now if they think the SEC is going to take them. That is probably the best fit for WVU (since the SEC doesn't care about anything but football and basketball on occassion) but that doesn't mean that the SEC wants them as much as they want the SEC. No way the ACC wants WVU or the Big 10 for that matter. WVU, UC, UL should all stick together and put themselves out there as a package deal to try to get some leverage.
JasonS
Football Moderator
I believe we will know what is going on with Oklahoma in the next hour. Things will get interesting shortly.
Edit: The OU President has been given authority to look at conference realignment. He has confirmed this and said that Texas and OU may not be in same league when all is said and done. They are working with Oklahoma State closely, however. The possibility remains that OU could stay in Big 12. In my opinion, this would be the best thing for UC. OU stay put, Texas go to ACC and have UC, UL, and WVU join the Big 12 to get it back to 12 teams.
Edit: The OU President has been given authority to look at conference realignment. He has confirmed this and said that Texas and OU may not be in same league when all is said and done. They are working with Oklahoma State closely, however. The possibility remains that OU could stay in Big 12. In my opinion, this would be the best thing for UC. OU stay put, Texas go to ACC and have UC, UL, and WVU join the Big 12 to get it back to 12 teams.
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JasonS
Football Moderator
Here is an idea from Gary Parrish. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...-big-east-can-survive-if-it-follows-this-plan
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