UCF Round 2

BearcatTalk

Help Support BearcatTalk:

justinhub2003 said:
Tre Scott was bad in isolation on Wednesday but again, it was because our system of face guarding allowed ucf to pull our entire team fro
The rim and then iso each player .

Tre has an excellent defensive rating in synergy 0.63 ppp allowed
Diarra has been slightly better though in far less possessions at .60 ppp allowed. Only 5% of defenders in the country are better then Diarra

Vogt has actually improved but still listed as below average. He has allowed . 97 ppp which is worse then 85% of the nation


Keith is listed as an average defender allowing .86 ppp... my guess is partly due to poor basketball iQ

Jarron grades out as Very Good allowing .78 ppp

MAW is also average

Jaevin has improved big time and is now Very Good as well


It is sad that Jarron Cumberland is basically our best perimeter defender.
Click to expand...

If your stats suggest that Diarra is a top 5% defender in all of college basketball you should probably find a new stat to use.
 
TheLongHaul said:
If your stats suggest that Diarra is a top 5% defender in all of college basketball you should probably find a new stat to use.
Click to expand...


dont know if the way they calculate stats is good or not, but anything on a guy that plays a limited amount of minutes isn't going to be accurate.


i would say Vogt is a good example. First part of the season he showed as a great post defender. middle part said he was terrible. now it looks like he's good again.


all those from the same guy. so much of these stats depend on whether guys hit shots or not. you need a really large sample size to have any accuracy.
 
TheLongHaul said:
If your stats suggest that Diarra is a top 5% defender in all of college basketball you should probably find a new stat to use.
Click to expand...

Probably the truest thing ever said on here. This is where stats can lie, and people act like they are everything. Anyone who has seen diarra play and know anything about basketball can tell he has no idea what he’s doing. But he’s mobile, so I guess that’s why people keep telling how great he is defensively. The same stat said Quadri was a good defender.
 
cincrulz11 said:
dont know if the way they calculate stats is good or not, but anything on a guy that plays a limited amount of minutes isn't going to be accurate.


i would say Vogt is a good example. First part of the season he showed as a great post defender. middle part said he was terrible. now it looks like he's good again.


all those from the same guy. so much of these stats depend on whether guys hit shots or not. you need a really large sample size to have any accuracy.
Click to expand...

Yep, and remember when the guy from Tulane made all those shots because of how bad Vogt was? Well the guy hasn’t made any since. So maybe Vogt was the worst defender of all time that day, or the guy got hot for a day. I’m not saying Vogt a good defender, just maybe not take these metrics as gospel
 
cincyguy13 said:
Probably the truest thing ever said on here. This is where stats can lie, and people act like they are everything. Anyone who has seen diarra play and know anything about basketball can tell he has no idea what he’s doing. But he’s mobile, so I guess that’s why people keep telling how great he is defensively. The same stat said Quadri was a good defender.
Click to expand...


people just don't have any idea how much variance there can be in small numbers. nor do they have any idea what small numbers are.

steph curry is the greatest 3 point shooter ever. it took me 20 seconds of looking at his game logs to find

101 shot span where he shot 52.9% from 3

93 shot span where he shot 32.2% from 3



synergy is drawing conclusions off samples that are so tiny there is no way to know how reliable the stats might be. their stats might be very good. they might have a flawless way of figuring out who is responsible for every basketball (which is highly questionable) and even then, the amount of games it would take for the numbers to be accurate is very high.
 
cincrulz11 said:
people just don't have any idea how much variance there can be in small numbers. nor do they have any idea what small numbers are.

steph curry is the greatest 3 point shooter ever. it took me 20 seconds of looking at his game logs to find

101 shot span where he shot 52.9% from 3

93 shot span where he shot 32.2% from 3



synergy is drawing conclusions off samples that are so tiny there is no way to know how reliable the stats might be. their stats might be very good. they might have a flawless way of figuring out who is responsible for every basketball (which is highly questionable) and even then, the amount of games it would take for the numbers to be accurate is very high.
Click to expand...
To be honest most of it is common sense. I understand people favor different players. More defensive vs more offensive but if you watch the game’s and know some of what’s going on, it’s clear Quadri is a terrible defender. I don’t need a stat for that. Same with diarra. Of course he can defend a pick and role better than Vogt. But if you watch the game, you also see him get lost a lot.l, foul people for no reason, (he isn’t the only one), and do other head scratching things. I don’t need a stat to tell me that. People get too in to the stats. In my opinion
 
cincyguy13 said:
To be honest most of it is common sense. I understand people favor different players. More defensive vs more offensive but if you watch the game’s and know some of what’s going on, it’s clear Quadri is a terrible defender. I don’t need a stat for that. Same with diarra. Of course he can defend a pick and role better than Vogt. But if you watch the game, you also see him get lost a lot.l, foul people for no reason, (he isn’t the only one), and do other head scratching things. I don’t need a stat to tell me that. People get too in to the stats. In my opinion
Click to expand...



Here’s the different between Quadri and Diarra


Quadri played in a Matchup zone where mick could hide poor defenders.


But in this system it’s far less hiding and way more one on one defense. So Diarra’s numbers would be much more accurate.


I can tell you with 100% certainty that Diarra is better defender than Vogt. It’s not close.

But that doesn’t mean he should play over Vogt.


That said, Vogt was an impact player in this league before the teams in it figured out his tendencies. He went from looking like a first team all league guy, to now the 4th option on this team.


I believe in the synergy numbers. They are the most in depth possession by possession stats that you can purchase, and it’s the se stuff that coaches use.

But anything In small sample size is deceiving. Diarra makes a crap ton of mistakes but they usually revolve the offensive end. He may make a poor rotation every now and again, but In general, if your try to score on Diarra it isn’t going to go well
 
Last edited:
justinhub2003 said:
Here’s the different between Quadri and Diarra


Quadri played in a Matchup zone where mick could hide poor defenders.


But in this system it’s far less hiding and way more one on one defense. So Diarra’s numbers would be much more accurate.


I can tell you with 100% certainty that Diarra is better defender than Vogt. It’s not close.

But that doesn’t mean he should play over Vogt.


That said, Vogt was an impact player in this league before the teams in it figured out his tendencies. He went from looking like a first team all league guy, to now the 4th option on this team.


I believe in the synergy numbers. They are the most in depth possession by possession stats that you can purchase, and it’s the se stuff that coaches use.

But anything In small sample size is deceiving. Diarra makes a crap ton of mistakes but they usually revolve the offensive end. He may make a poor rotation every now and again, but In general, if your try to score on Diarra it isn’t going to go well
Click to expand...

I agree, I knew Diarra was a much better defender than Vogt well before you posted the synergy numbers. The numbers just confirm what I saw and what I'd been saying.

Just watch the games, teams consistently target Vogt and our defensive provides help to Vogt. Diarra makes more mental errors, but he is the much better defender (and much better rebounder).
 
skyblade said:
I agree, I knew Diarra was a much better defender than Vogt well before you posted the synergy numbers. The numbers just confirm what I saw and what I'd been saying.

Just watch the games, teams consistently target Vogt and our defensive provides help to Vogt. Diarra makes more mental errors, but he is the much better defender (and much better rebounder).
Click to expand...

But the mental errors are impossible to overcome. Constantly out of position. I would say at least a third of the time he is in he is playing in a 1-3-1
 
Bcatfollower said:
But the mental errors are impossible to overcome. Constantly out of position. I would say at least a third of the time he is in he is playing in a 1-3-1
Click to expand...

As I said earlier, he was +6 against UCF in the first half, when everyone said he played terrible. He does a lot right and it makes up for a lot of the mistakes. One example is both his TO's were off his own offensive rebounds - a good play and a mistake that cancel each other out and net no real impact.

He can obviously play much better then he has, but that's why I think he has a ton of potential. When he plays mistake free he is excellent, when he plays like normal he is still good enough to be on the court as a backup. The only game lately where he played so bad he didn't belong on the court is against UConn.
 
justinhub2003 said:
Here’s the different between Quadri and Diarra


Quadri played in a Matchup zone where mick could hide poor defenders.


But in this system it’s far less hiding and way more one on one defense. So Diarra’s numbers would be much more accurate.


I can tell you with 100% certainty that Diarra is better defender than Vogt. It’s not close.

But that doesn’t mean he should play over Vogt.


That said, Vogt was an impact player in this league before the teams in it figured out his tendencies. He went from looking like a first team all league guy, to now the 4th option on this team.


I believe in the synergy numbers. They are the most in depth possession by possession stats that you can purchase, and it’s the se stuff that coaches use.

But anything In small sample size is deceiving. Diarra makes a crap ton of mistakes but they usually revolve the offensive end. He may make a poor rotation every now and again, but In general, if your try to score on Diarra it isn’t going to go well
Click to expand...
I’m fine with diarra. He is very mobile, which helps on defense. I’ve never said Vogt was better on defense. Not sure anyone has. Diarra does a lot of dumb things that hurt the team. My thing with diarra is when people act like he’s the missing link. He’s at best, at this stage in his career, A role player that should get 5-10 minutes a game. Depending on if he’s completely unplayable. Which happens a lot. I wish he was really good. It would help the team if he was. I’m sure brannen wishes he was too. Vogt hasn’t been good recently. No debate. Problem is we had a person wanting to play diarra over Vogt when Vogt was averaging 14-7 on 70% shooting. It’s hard to take people like that seriously.
 
Last edited:
Diarra strength is his help defense and pick and roll defense. 1v1 he usually isn’t as good. He struggles in the post because he can get sealed fairly easy and he gets blown by when he is on the perimeter, because he is face guarding. He also over help a lot.
 
Last edited:
cincyguy13 said:
Diarra strength is his help defense and pick and roll defense. 1v1 he usually isn’t as good. He struggles in the post because he can get sealed fairly easy and he gets blown by when he is on the perimeter, because he is face guarding. He also over help a lot.
Click to expand...


In a small sample size Diarra’s post up defense is absolutely elite

.56 ppp Better then 90% of D1

His spot of defense is .64

He’s only covered the pick and roll man 7 times all year so not enough data
 
justinhub2003 said:
In a small sample size Diarra’s post up defense is absolutely elite

.56 ppp Better then 90% of D1

His spot of defense is .64

He’s only covered the pick and roll man 7 times all year so not enough data
Click to expand...
Doesn’t have to cover the pick and roll man, can hedge then recover. Something Vogt can’t do. Not sure how the data would even calculate stuff like that, if it doesn’t know what he’s supposed to be doing in the first place.
 
justinhub2003 said:
In a small sample size Diarra’s post up defense is absolutely elite

.56 ppp Better then 90% of D1

His spot of defense is .64

He’s only covered the pick and roll man 7 times all year so not enough data
Click to expand...
They usually prevent the ball handler from driving to the middle, while the big helps, giving the defender time to recover. They rarely out right switch. Diarra is good at this because he can recover faster.
 
justinhub2003 said:
In a small sample size Diarra’s post up defense is absolutely elite

.56 ppp Better then 90% of D1

His spot of defense is .64

He’s only covered the pick and roll man 7 times all year so not enough data
Click to expand...

Small sample size is exactly why you can't use the stats. You make it appear you understand stats but it's obvious you don't. You and Skyblade just throw out stats that attempt to support your position. Diarra is anything but an elite post defender. Average at best
 

Similar threads

Q
UCF
Replies
6
Views
27K
Queens_NYC
Q
Q
Kansas
Replies
11
Views
41K
sedziobs
S
Q
Temple Part II
Replies
6
Views
16K
sirthought
S
Q
UCF Part II
Replies
14
Views
26K
David H
D
Q
Tulane Part II
2
Replies
37
Views
50K
TheLongHaul
T
Back
Top